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Anonymous ID: 24c9d6 June 7, 2020, 1:23 p.m. No.9522976   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>3203 >>3371 >>3436 >>3449

Weekly Economic release schedule and FOMC Preview

 

The FOMC will meet this week on Tuesday and Wednesday, and expectations are for no change in policy. Fed Chair Powell will hold a press briefing on Wednesday and will likely reiterate that the Fed will do whatever it takes, and suggest that more fiscal disaster relief is needed. The FOMC is expected to release updated projections at the meeting this week (this is not certain). The FOMC didn't release projections in March due to economic uncertainty related to the impact of COVID-19.Since the last projections were released, the economic world has changed dramatically - coming to a sudden stop in March - and the projections for 2020 and 2021 will change significantly. In addition, there has been recent speculation that the Fed would do yield-curve control (YCC), which is a program to keep short-term interest rates capped at a certain level. Despite the chatter, Wells Fargo argued that YCC will be unlikely in June.

 

GDP decreased at a 5.0% annual rate in Q1, and most forecasts are for an annual rate decline of 30% to 40% in Q2 - and for GDP to decline in 2020. The course of the economy will depend on the course of the pandemic, so the FOMC has to factor in their expectations of when the pandemic will subside and end (and no one knows at this time).The unemployment rate was at 13.3% in May. The FOMC will revise up their Q4 2020 unemployment forecast significantly. The FOMC projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2020, 2021 and 2022 will be interesting. Note that the unemployment rate doesn't remotely capture the economic damage to the labor market. Not only were there 15+ million more people unemployed in May than at the end of 2019, but another 6+ million have left the labor force. And close to 50% of households have seen a decline in income.

 

Economic Schedule for week of 060720

  • Monday, June 1st -

Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 43.0, up from 41.5 in April. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The employment index was at 27.5% in April, and the new orders index was at 27.1%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for April. The consensus is for a 6.0% decrease in construction spending.

  • Tuesday, June 2nd -

All day: Light vehicle sales for May. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 10.8 million SAAR in May, up from 8.6 million in April (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for April.

  • Wednesday, June 3rd -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for May. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 9,000,000 payroll jobs lost in May, up from 20,236,000 lost in April.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for May. The consensus is for a reading of 44.0, up from 41.8.

  • Thursday, June 4th -

Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $44.3 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was at $44.4 Billion the previous month.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 1.900 million initial claims, down from 2.123 million the previous week.

  • Friday, June 5th -

Employment Report for May. The consensus is for 8,250,000 jobs lost, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 19.7%. There were 20,500,000 jobs lost in April, and the unemployment rate was at 14.7%. The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and the worst in terms of the unemployment rate.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/p/weekly-schedule.html

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/06/fomc-preview.html

 

from June 3rd, 2020

FRB Municipal Liquidity Facility

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/muni.htm

 

The Bond Market’s Bears Are on a Tear. Now the Fed Has Its Say

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-07/the-bond-market-s-bears-are-on-a-tear-now-the-fed-has-its-say