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IMF again slashes its 2020 global output forecast
The International Monetary Fund has once again slashed its economic forecast for the global economy. It now estimates a contraction of 4.9 percent in 2020 — 1.9 percentage points lower than its forecast in April.
The IMF released its World Economic Outlook Update on Wednesday. The report warns that by the end of 2021 global activity will take a hit of more than 12 trillion dollars as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Among advanced economies, the IMF in particular sharply lowered its forecast for European countries.
France is now expected to see a decline of 12.5 percent, down 5.3 percentage points from its April figure, and Italy, minus 12.8 percent, down 3.7 percentage points. The United States will contract by 8 percent, down 2.1 percentage points, and Japan, minus 5.8 percent, down by 0.6 percentage points.
The IMF notes consumption growth has been downgraded for most economies, reflecting the larger-than-anticipated disruption to domestic activity. It also says the projections of weaker private consumption reflect a combination of a large adverse aggregate demand shock from social distancing and lockdowns, as well as a rise in precautionary savings.
Among emerging markets and developing economies, where infections are spreading, the fund expects a contraction of 4.5 percent in India, down 6.4 percentage points from its previous forecast, and minus 9.1 percent in Brazil, down 3.8 percentage points. IMF Economic Counsellor Gita Gopinath said given that there's so much uncertainty and the health risk is not over yet they are projecting a slower recovery.
Gopinath adds that the IMF expects to see a pickup as many countries reopen, but that the growth will be uneven.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200625_08/
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adults at work
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