Hypotheses: Arizona is having a massive outbreak and does not have the capacity to handle it.
Null Hypotheses: Arizona is not having a massive outbreak and does have the capacity to handle it.
Data Source: https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
Lots to unpack in those statements, hence the multiple hypotheses. First the number of cases. As we can see, the number of cases did go up dramatically and have now fallen even more dramatically. This correlates to the availability of testing and the decline is good news. Therefore: The null hypothesis stands.
Deaths are the numbers that should concern us all. How do those look? From the data, the deaths appear to be down to flat. Therefore: The null hypothesis stands.
Next, we heard a lot about ventilators. If we don’t have enough capacity, we could be overwhelmed we are told. How does that look? As we can see, the ventilators are well below capacity. Therefore: The null hypothesis stands again.
Finally, we are told it is all about hospital beds. How do those look? Well, no wonder Arizona is in a panic now, the beds are at capacity. Any kind of spike would put us over the top, right?
Not so fast. From her own blog:
Through the hard work of the hospitals, an additional 600 ICU and 2,600 inpatient surge beds were added during this time.
(Discussing the methodology)…This updated method, now posted in the Hospital Bed Usage and Availability section of our dashboard, shows the current bed availability without calculating in the additional (surge) beds hospitals added under Executive Order 2020-10. Initially, these surge beds were calculated into the total number and counted as full — these surge beds should not be included in the bed availability, because they are not currently in use. Cara M. Christ, M.D., M.S. became Director for the Arizona Department of Health Services in May 2015. Dr. Christ has served the agency for more than nine years.
https://directorsblog.health.azdhs.gov/new-method-for-determining-inpatient-and-icu-bed-availability-launched-today/
Even in this case, The null hypothesis holds.
Sorry folks. Even using their own data, it took less than 1 hour for me to disprove the wild allegations that are terrifying people. While the virus seems real, the hype is not anywhere close to the reality. The real question is, why are the mainstream media reporting to the contrary? Is this really about the election?