Anonymous ID: d8eccf July 1, 2020, 9:10 p.m. No.9821089   🗄️.is đź”—kun

>>9820887

 

July 1st 2020: COVID-19 Lethality Plummets

 

For the US

As noted last week when the second wave (B) of new cases had reached the peak of the first (A), there was NOT a corresponding rise in deaths (D) as we saw with the initial wave (C). And while we continue to see a rise in new cases this week (E), the average number of deaths continue to fall nationwide (F), despite the anomalous addition of thousands of new deaths coming from NYC (G). The rapid rise in new cases could reflect 1) increased testing 2) the combined counting of Dx tests with antibody tests 3) the emergence of a new strain which is more contagious, but less severe, and 4) the combination of all of the above. Regardless, as the number of cases continue to climb while the death rate continues to fall, the lethality of the virus will continue to decline consistent with what we know about natural herd immunity.

 

For Florida

While I am quite aware that using the "daily deaths" relative to "new cases" in not the most accurate way to calculate “survivability”, its inverse or “lethality” is not going to exceed 1-2% unless the person has a preexisting medical condition, type A blood, is in a rest home, or is over the age of 60. In fact, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ­(CDC) estimated in May that the COVID-19 kills about 0.26 percent of the people it infects, about 1 in 400 people. New estimates from Sweden suggest that only 1 in 10,000 people under 50 will die from the virus, compared to 1 in 14 of people over 80 and 1 in 6 of those over 90. Quarantines and shutdowns are for the sick and vulnerable, but when the government wants to do it to normal young healthy people, it’s tyranny. Period!