Lots More Green Shoots

It's been several weeks since my last post, but no, I haven't been sick with Covid-19 nor has anyone in my extended family. I've just been enjoying the market's buoyancy while also tracking the economy's recovery. The economy seems to be doing pretty well, but it's still got to climb out of a very deep hole before we'll all breathe easy. Meanwhile, the market is doing a decent job of looking across the valley of despair, as it often does, and ignoring all the hype surrounding a supposed second Covid-19 wave. BLM protests looked quite threatening for a while, but are now fizzling out, and leaving a legacy of lawlessness and chaos which I hope will sharpen minds come election time.

New Covid-19 cases are surging in some areas, but to date there is almost no evidence of an increase in new deaths. In fact, the Covid-19 outlook continues to improve. Dr. John Ioannidis (an early sage who correctly cautioned against the Covid-19 shutdown) has reviewed some 50 international studies and argues that some 150 million to 300 million people around the world have already had the virus, far more than the 10 million recorded cases. "For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially."

Believe it or not, "Despite the recent spike in COVID-19 cases, deaths have continued to decline and may soon reach a level where the coronavirus will no longer qualify as an epidemic under CDC guidelines." (Source)

Meanwhile, vaccine solutions are on the horizon, and a recent hydroxychloroquine study showed a 50% reduction in hospital mortality rates. Remember, you first heard about HCQ here in late March.

As Chart #1 shows, there has been a definite increase in the number of new cases in the U.S. This has prompted the MSM to warn of a deadly second wave. But this is no reason to panic, and no reason to worry about another shutdown. It's very important to remember that this virus is not going to disappear anytime soon. So far, recorded cases total less than 1% of the population (though according to Ioannidis it could be much more - but still a relatively small number).

Before this is all over, at least half the population could end up infected, but the good news is that at least 99% or more will survive. Much of the recent increase in cases comes from younger people, many of whom were asymptomatic but were required, for various reasons, to be tested. And of course there has been a tremendous increase in the number of tests administered, so that alone could account for much of the rise. The nationwide wave of BLM protests and riots, most of which occurred between May 26th and June 6th, surely contributed as well to the increased number of cases.

Sauce:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357522-lots-green-shoots