https://twitter.com/BrandonHathaw12/status/1281090319354757120
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a "91 percent" chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his "Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. "This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced."
As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict was the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
Norpoth's model examines the results of presidential primaries as the strongest indicator as to the outcome in the general election, not the polls that dominate the political discussion. According to Norpoth, Biden is in a much weaker position than Trump because of his poor showing in the first two primary races.
Before making the stunning comeback in the South Carolina primary and carrying the following races, Biden came in fourth place in Iowa with just 15.8 percent of the vote and came in fifth place in New Hampshire with just 8.4 percent. Norpoth stressed that enthusiasm is key.
“The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall,” Norpoth told Mediaite. “The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."
Norpoth's model, which correctly predicted Trump's victory roughly nine months before the 2016 election, suggests that the president will win by even a wider margin in the electoral college with 362 electoral votes versus the 304 he earned against Hillary Clinton. Mediaite pointed out such a victory would nearly match Barack Obama's 2008 election, where he earned 365 electoral votes.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls
https://twitter.com/15poundstogo/status/1281049168744775681
https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/1281081329468268547
New polling confirms Americans are not as crazy and clueless as their mainstream media.
Despite all the media BS about peaceful protests, Americans are not so willing to go along with ripping down all the statues of heroes and saints, burning and looting the business districts and threats to abolish the police.
According to a new poll by Democracy Institute the fallout from the Black Lives Matter protests and riots will win President Trump his reelection.
The Express reported:
According to the poll conducted by the Washington based thinktank the Democracy Institute, President Trump is neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent. However, Mr Trump would win in the electoral college system by 309 to 229 delegates because he is on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent.
The findings come as the US President went to the iconic Mount Rushmore to make a speech attacking “the angry mobs” who want to erase America’s history.
He told the crowd of supporters: “There is a new far-left fascism that demands absolute allegiance. If you do not speak its language, perform its rituals, recite its mantras, and follow its commandments then you will be censored, banished, blacklisted, persecuted, and punished. Not gonna happen to us.”
According to the poll, the concerns over the effects of the protests appear to be boosting Mr Trump’s chances even though his campaign is believed to be flagging.
Given a choice between which phrases identified their views 71 percent chose “all lives matter” while 29 percent picked “black lives matter”.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/07/happening-americans-turn-trump-democrats-continue-embrace-lawlessness-defunding-police-ongoing-street-violence/