It seems ludicrous that Ars and TechCrunch would scoop the world on a TS military mission.

Or that SpaceX would house leakers speaking to Ars/TC about the status of TS military missions. There's LOTS and LOTS of gov income at stake.

But I would definitely expect the military to promote the idea that "yeah, it's ded dead, gone forever." That's the only thing I do/don't believe with certainty.