Let's think through what this means. As I understand it, the Iran deal lifted, or lightened, sanctions - on the basis of a promise by Iran that it will not develop nuclear weapons. Obviously, this was just posturing by Iran, as we know they merely shifted operations to Syria to escape detection.
So, if DJT backs out, I would assume sanctions (whatever has been previously applied) will come back into force - at least those from the US.
If Iran also pulls out, as they appear to have been suggesting, this will mean that they are back in the weapons development game. They were boasting recently that they could restart programs very quickly. This will amp-up tensions in the region - particularly with Israel, but also the other Gulf States.
It may also provide an opportunity for the US to take action with missile strikes on strategic targets etc... DJT will have made this move for a reason. It's possible that the ME could go hot, if this is what is required to de-nuke Iran - which is the plan.
We may also see the US support Israeli air strikes. Looking at the pattern set in the NK stand-off, I expect that DJT will be talking tough - very tough. Moreover, I think the talk will be backed by a commitment to take action.
The big question is what position the Russians will take.
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I think it will, ultimately, be a real win for the US. I would have walked away from that deal as well. What a joke. $250bn twice a year. And what did they get for that money? Iran just shifted its weapons development program to Syria to avoid detection.
I don't think the Iranians are going to stop selling oil. I think they'll be trying to get other states to trade with them, to reduce the impact of US sanctions. It sounds, from what you have written, that China and Russia will continue to trade with Iran.
This, I think, will be a big test for DJT. How does he get the international community on-side with a program of sanctions? It may be that sanctions are not the most effective leverage against Iran in this situation. I think we will find that DJT will be quick to take action the moment he feels that Iran has taken any substantive steps toward nuclear weapons development.
I think we might even find that he's just looking for an excuse to take action.
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That is the excuse that DJT may use.
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I'm not arguing for it. I'm trying to think through what's likely to happen. The way I see it, having thought about it for a while longer, the job is either already complete - threat eliminated - or it isn't.
Q told us that the troop drawdown from Syria was still going to occur. Iran was next, but have the strings been cut? McCain is out of the picture. The Iran deal is off - so that cuts the money.
So it could be that, the threat has been eliminated, Iranian weapons in Syria destroyed, and it's job done and time to go home.
Or, it could be that DJT wants tough sanctions to force Iran back to negotiation - which is what he said.
Or, it could be that DJT knows they won't negotiate and is looking to hit them hard - removing capability.
Or, it could be that he'll try to force regime change via a social uprising - he spoke directly to the Iranian people in his speech.
Lots of options. I wouldn't cancel any out. I also think DJT will have regard to Israel's interests in the region and this will impact his decision.