Friendly reminder that both of those outcomes are from an armchair perspective. The book "Civil War 2" written by Thomas Chittum provides a tale more accurate due to his experience in the fall of Rhodesia and the breakup of Yugoslavia. While it's still speculation the patterns he observed can be applied to the modern USA situation. Do yourself a favor and read it.
https://ia600303.us.archive.org/32/items/CivilWar2/Civil-War-2.pdf