ty B
morning
Let's have a look at Yerp and the med
JAKE12 USAF Rivet Joint over se Poland-near Rzesow
RAF RRR7205 Rivet Joint on the eastern Polish border now after some runs over eastern Romania
NATO01 E-3 Sentry AWACS in it's cutomary position over eatern Poalns near Ukraine border
FORTE RQ-4 Global Hawk heading north from Sigonella AB, Sicily
Algerian AF 7TVPS G4 departing Warsaw Int'l
Belgian AF BAF648 A400M nw from Rzesow Airport
DUKE29 US Army C-560 nw from Rzesow Airport
Hungarian AF HUAF192 A319 from Bosnia to Budapest-on ground now
Hungarian AF BRK51 C-17 Globemaster nw over Romania-looks like it went somewhere in Turkey
LAGR274 250 and 275 USAF Stratotankers heading se over Hungary and Romania
PICO30 USAF KC-46 Pegasus back to Moron AB after some trackin' over west central Hungary
PICO40 es from Moron AB, Spain just east of Sardinia
Canadian AF CFC4144 A310 se from Prestwick Int'l (Glasgow's Int'l Airport)
R20823 US Army Blackhawk over Constanta Romainia at 1500 ft
French AF CTM0005 returning to Paris after Berlin ground stop
Brazilian AF BRS2856 Embraer 390 (similar to our C-130 but with jet engines and a bit smaller) on ground at San Juan Int'l from Boa Vista AB
Boa Vista is located just above the equator and is the only Brazilian AFB located in the northern hemisphere-for the trivia minded)
IMF calls for $15 billion this year to manage long-term risks of COVID
Countries around the world should provide $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion a year thereafter to manage the long-term risks of COVID-19, the International Monetary Fund said in a new staff paper released on Tuesday.
The paper, prepared with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the Global Fund, and charitable group Wellcome, said a new, more comprehensive approach was needed immediately to strengthen global health systems and limit the already staggering $13.8 trillion cost of the pandemic.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/imf-calls-15-bln-this-year-manage-long-term-risks-covid-2022-04-05/
On His First Day Back as CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz Made a Highly Controversial, $20-Billion Decision
On Monday, Howard Schultz returned to Starbucks as its CEO. It's the third time he has held the role, this one after Kevin Johnson, who was appointed CEO in 2017, announced last month that he was retiring.
While Schultz has made it clear that he intends to hold the role only on an interim basis, he wasted no time making a significant change. In a letter to employees that was published on the company's blog, Schultz said the company was canceling its plans to buy back $20 billion of its stock over the next few years. That move had been announced in October and came after the company previously spent $12 billion in 2019 and 2020 on its shares. Schultz wrote: Starting immediately, we are suspending our share repurchasing program. This decision will allow us to invest more profit into our people and our stores -- the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders. Starbucks's shares fell 5 percent when the market opened, a sign that the move is controversial, especially among investors who had seen the buybacks as a positive move amid slowed growth and increased expenses during the pandemic. The company's shares had climbed 79 percent under Johnson, much of that due to the buyback strategy.
Despite the controversy, the more important lesson is the second sentence above: "This decision will allow us to invest more profit into our people and our stores." That, Schultz says, is "the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders."
That, in fact, is where things get interesting. Schultz is inheriting a company that looks different than the one he left five years ago. Employees have stepped up efforts to unionize as they criticize the way they are treated by the company, especially during the pandemic. To date, 11 stores have voted to form unions, including the company's flagship roastery in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York City.
Some of the primary complaints center on employee pay and working conditions. It's no coincidence that the two things Schultz mentioned the company plans to do with the $20 billion are investing in its people and its stores.
Schultz is a well-known opponent of unionization efforts. He spent much of his time as CEO pushing back against unions. He seemed to take efforts to unionize personally -- considering it a leadership failure that employees would want to join a union at all. In his 1997 book, Pour Your Heart Into It, Schultz wrote that if employees "had faith in me and my motives, they wouldn't need a union."
I don't know if Schultz's return is a direct effort by the company to cut off the unionization efforts. Certainly, if that's the company's goal, he's the best person to have in charge. Even if it isn't the overt goal of bringing him back, there's no question the company needs someone focused on improving its relationship with its employees, which it calls "partners." Of course, the thing about "partners" is that the relationship is mutually beneficial.
In the long run, investing in its people benefits everyone. Employees benefit when they feel valued and are compensated fairly for the work they do. Starbucks benefits by earning back trust and fixing the broken relationship.
Shareholders benefit too, especially if the company is able to head off further efforts to unionize stores -- something investors fear will jeopardize the company's reputation. Committing to spend $20 billion on employees instead of handing money back to shareholders seems like the type of thing that could make a real difference, even if it's sure to be controversial.
https://www.inc.com/jason-aten/on-his-first-day-back-as-ceo-of-starbucks-howard-schultz-to-end-its-20-billion-share-buyback.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX
Shitty and burned coffee aside he just trying to keep the union(s) outta Starbucks
SAM777 USAF C-40B reappears heading nw after arriving at San Juan, PR yesterday from JBA used by WH NSO in the past
BOXER40 USAF C-40C departed Nashville Int'l after arriving on 0402-stopped at Little Rock, AR for an overnight on 0401-it haulin' ass at 564 kts on descent
Heading back to JBA
It's Official: Deutsche Is The First Bank To Forecast A US Recession In Late 2023
Up until now, with the exception of various bearish splinter voices within Wall Street banks - such as those of Michael Hartnett or Albert Edwards who pitched recessionary scenarios explicitly different from the banks' bullish "base cases", not one bank dared to make the coming recession its official prediction narrative. That changed this morning when Deutsche Bank's chief economists and heads of research, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper, became the first to make a recession in the US and a growth recession in the euro area within the next two years, their official forecast. The "shocks" behind DB's dramatic reassessment - the same ones we have been pounding the table on for the past 2 months: the war in Ukraine and the build-up of momentum in elevated US and European inflation. Some more details from the DB duo:
*The war, which has transitioned into a stalemate that is unlikely to be resolved any time soon, has disrupted activity on a number of fronts. These include upheavals in markets for energy, food grains, and key materials, that have in turn further disrupted global supply chains. That said, the economists assume that the critical flow of gas from Russia to Europe will not be cut off, keeping the crisis from substantially deepening costs to the European and global economies, but that remains a downside risk.
*Inflation in the US and Europe is now pushing 8%, well in excess of what was expected as recently as December. More troubling, especially in the US, are signs that the underlying drivers of inflation have broadened, emanating from very tight labor market conditions and spreading from goods to services. Inflation psychology has shifted significantly, and while longer-term inflation expectations have not yet become un-anchored, they are increasingly at risk of doing so.
Meanwhile, as confirmed by today's uberhawkish comments from Lael Brainard, the Fed has found itself greatly behind the curve, and has given clear signals that it is shifting to a more aggressive tightening mode, so DB now expects the Fed funds rate to peak above 3-1/2% next summer, with balance sheet rundown adding at least another 75bp-equivalent in rate hikes. With EA inflation likely to be sustained at 2% or more, the German bank also sees the ECB raising rates 250 bps between this September and next December... but since it will fail miserably, all it is doing is bringing forward the next massive monetary stimulus (read QE and ETF purchases-dis already being done via the FRB "hiring" Blackrock).
And sure enough, DB agrees with that too, with the bank writing that "growth is seen recovering thereafter as inflation recedes and the Fed reverses some of its rate hikes", translation rate cuts begin as soon as 2023-see below linky to Feb 16th
In more specific terms, DB writes that the war in Ukraine and the more aggressive monetary policy tightening "have caused us to mark down our forecast for global growth—by more than 1pp this year and 3/4pp next year".. With the EA and especially Germany hit hardest this year by the war and surges in energy and other prices that have depressed household and corporate real incomes. China’s growth has been marked down significantly as well, this year and next, primarily because of the disruptive effects of official measures including lockdowns to deal with the spread of the highly infectious Omicron BA.2 variant of Covid-19.
The US economy is expected to take an especially hard hit from the extra Fed tightening by late next year and early 2024, and as a result Deutsche sees two negative quarters of growth and a more than 1.5% pt rise in the US unemployment rate, developments that clearly qualify as a recession. This US slowdown - and recession - spills over to some extent to much of the rest of the world, with EA growth dipping briefly to about zero in early 2024, a number which will only be pulled lower in coming weeks as the European recession gets "worse". The good news is that by late 2024, US growth picks up after the Fed eases rates and/or resumes QE.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/its-official-deutsche-first-bank-forecast-us-recession-late-2023
pb
>>126758 FOMC Minutes: "Faster" is the Word-calculatedrisk
Russia Five-Year Default Risk Jumps to 87.7% After U.S. Ban
The price of insuring Russia’s debt against default jumped on Tuesday signaling an 87.7% chance that the country will miss its debt obligations within five years, according to CMA, part of ICE Data Services.
The probability of default rose from 77.7% on Monday after the Treasury decided to halt dollar debt payments from U.S. bank accounts, and is up from 24.1% when the invasion of Ukraine started on Feb. 24, the data show. Russia has been able to service its debt even under sanctions as the U.S. made an exception, valid until late May, for creditors to receive interest. The tightening of the restrictions on payment from U.S. banks, however, adds pressure on Moscow to find new routes to remain current on its debt obligations. Some holders of a 2042 bond with coupons coming due on Monday hadn’t received payments as of Tuesday morning in London.
The halt on using cash from U.S. banks is intended to force Russia into draining its domestic dollar reserves, spending new revenue to make bond payments or going into default, a spokesperson for the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-five-year-default-risk-jumps-to-87-7-after-u-s-ban-1.1748035
>>132341 Asian Stocks Boosted by Hong Kong; Treasuries Drop-2s10s way effed nao-various sources and anon
2s10s flipped back-for how long d'oh-cap #3 from linky above
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd02y
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
Biden to extend student-loan repayment pause to Aug. 31
The Biden administration on Wednesday plans to announce another reprieve for student-loan borrowers from monthly repayments, according to multiple published reports on Tuesday citing unnamed administration officials. The pause on federal student-loan repayments, which had been scheduled to end May 1, is now expected to run through Aug. 31.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-to-extend-student-loan-repayment-pause-to-aug-31-2022-04-05
aei can't read either bro
Boeing factory problems disrupt new Air Force One production: report
Production of the new Air Force One jet by Boeing faced disruption early this year due to problems at the planemaker’s factory, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The disruption involved attempts to place one of the two jets under development onto jacks but the weight on some of the jacks exceeded the limit, causing concerns over aircraft damage, the report added. Boeing and the Pentagon are in negotiations over a delivery schedule for the new Air Force One jets, the Journal reported.
Last year, Boeing said that it found two empty tequila bottles on one of the Air Force One planes being developed in San Antonio facility, though alcohol is banned at all Boeing factories, according to media reports. Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner has also been plagued by production defects, while delivery delays have led to multiple complaints from airlines.
The aircraft maker did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. Former President Donald Trump had criticized the US planemaker for high price tags for the heavily modified 747-8 aircraft. The company, however, received a $3.9 billion contract in 2018 to build two aircraft to be used as Air Force One jets.
https://nypost.com/2022/04/05/boeing-factory-problems-hit-air-force-one-production-report/
DERP!!
SAM785 USAF G5 nw from Shreveport, LA-can't tell if Barksdale or one of the two regular airports (regional or downtown)
About 90 minutes on ground for them
SAM743 USAF G5 east from Scott AFB, IL after a bit less than 90 minutes on ground
SAM777 USAF C-40B continues west after it's San Juan, PR depart
82-8000 USAF 747 continues over Newport News Int'l from JBA
SAM743 USAF G5 on ground at Boston Logan from Scott AFB
SAM777 USAF C-40B on ground at San Antonio Int'l from San Juan, PR depart-did a fly-by at Lackland AFB prior to San Antonio Int'l arrival
SAM785 USAF G5 east after a stop at North Platte Regional Airport (data incomplete but that is where the traces line up to)
82-8000 USAF 747 returned to JBA after it's go arounds at Newport News Int'l
Mkt Fag: No relief for the NAS or anywhere else ftmp edition
NAS managed to stay green for all of 33 minutes today-the DOW for a whopping 39 minutes and the SP500 for 36 minutes...kek-the prop for the 1st qtr woked well...until people actually read statements that went out of the weekend and found out they actually lost about 5 % for the qtr (depending on how they were positioned obviously-if 60/40 then BIG surprise!)
All three indices had big fugly volume pickups into the close. I would imagine that a few longs were being placed in that mess cause BTFD works until it doesn't-ending on LOD suggest there were not too many doing that however if still active I may have taken a nibble into the close but certainly not betting the house money either. DWAC still teaching people how a bull trap works with an additional loss of 15.70% on a little moar than avg volume. >>127376 pb saw that coming in early February. All the hot air provided by the "most shorted stocks" saw those drop the most in over a year. See who those are here >>131938 pb in cap #2
You also have the many billions in share-buybacks suspended because they are not 'allowed' during the Qtrly earnings season (but they do it anyway via proxy-they just can't do it as much as they would like) see here as well >>132465
You had the first (of a series this week) of Fed heads trying to catch up with reality today with Lael Brainard trying desperately to clean up aisle "oh shit"-because later on the San Francisco Fed piled on with literally the same thing-"rapid balance sheet reduction...."-good luck ladies-yer gonna need it. They release the minutes from the last FOMC meeting tomorrow btw.
Fed's balance sheet runoff will be rapid, Brainard says
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday said she expects a combination of interest rate increases and a rapid balance sheet runoff to bring U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year, with further tightening to follow as needed. To do so, she said, the Fed will raise rates "methodically" and, as soon as next month, begin to reduce its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet, quickly arriving at a "considerably" more rapid pace of runoff than the last time the Fed shrank its holdings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell says he believes the Fed can manage a "soft landing," where the central bank raises borrowing costs enough to slow the economy and bring inflation down, but not enough to send unemployment surging or push the economy into recession.
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-brainard-sees-methodical-rate-hikes-rapid-balance-sheet-shrinkage-2022-04-05/
Good luck with that Jerry (and 'frens').....not gonna habben.
rapid balance sheet runoff.....to whom they continue to leave unsaid-better hope the Arabs fall for the same trick they fell for with rescuing the banks starting in 2007 and into 08.
BTW they continue to "offer" repo operations but not many takers-but looks like they had someone do $1m on 0330
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/repo
and are still buying MBS with today's result as follows:
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Operations
Operation Date: Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Total Amount Submitted: $4.04B
Total Amount Accepted: $1.48B
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs
click on the link and select last 2 weeks at the bottom to see they have still been busy at this-but "we're gonna stop soon-honest!"......BS
You've also go the dollar back up to about it's 3 year high again after backing off a bit over the last few weeks and conveniently at the pre-FOMC prime rate hike announcement level-with an almost .50% move today alone-see Cap#3-this will further weaken the Yen to ¥123.61 (last)-and sending it back towards it's last resistance point of ¥125.-see cap #4
BOJ still complete denial of devaluation and they are continuing to swim naked while every other CB is or are raising rates and they stand pat....not gonna end well for that one as they will end up owning the entire Japanese equity and bond market at some point-already own large portions of both
from yesterday
Wrong-Footed Day Traders Learn the Dangers of Fighting the Bank of Japan
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/wrong-footed-day-traders-learn-the-dangers-of-fighting-the-bank-of-japan-1.1747633
Annnnnnnd as already mentioned earlier on the 2s10s here >>132472
For some context, yields are utterly exploding higher.-see cap#5 for ZH chart...just "magic" that-kek. Steepening yield curves that magically appear out of nowhere are so organic..this is where you will see consequences whether "they" like it or not.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC
>>132007, >>132012, >>132024, >>132100, >>132172, >>132318 all pb
PAVER71 USAFSOC C-32B reappears after stopping off at NB Rota (for about 2hours and 20 minutes) and departing from earlier today after last being seen't over the Arabian Sea on 0403 after departing Nepal
They probably stopped at Tel Aviv having switched "off" from >132318
Looks like they are going to Pittsburgh Int'l
they usually ok when not being a pretentious ijit.
Sadly many examples of that next door and not just them.
JetBlue bids $3.6 bln for Spirit in U.S. low-cost carrier battle
JetBlue offered $33 a share all cash, about 33% higher than Frontier's offer of 1.9126 shares of stock and $2.13 in cash, which would value Spirit at $24.93 per share as of Tuesday's closing price. Shares of Spirit rose 22% to $26.92, their highest level since mid-February. Airline stocks have suffered over the last two years as air travel dropped dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. JetBlue said the deal would make it a stronger competitor to the largest four U.S. airlines that control nearly 80% of U.S. passenger travel and boost operations in key markets like the northeast and Florida. It would operate Spirit under the JetBlue brand. JetBlue, the sixth-largest U.S. airline, said the tie-up would position it "as the most compelling national low-fare challenger to the four large dominant U.S. carriers." The move comes as airlines face higher fuel and labor costs, and work to attract more leisure travelers, who have returned at a faster rate than business travelers since restrictions were relaxed. The deal will get considerable scrutiny from the U.S. Justice Department because both (JetBlue and Spirit) are important discount carriers, said Andre Barlow of Doyle, Barlow and Mazard PLLC. "I think the administration is concerned about consolidation that could lead to higher prices. This one impacts consumers, so I think it gets a tough look," he said. The Justice Department declined to comment.
The department filed an antitrust lawsuit against American Airlines (AAL.O) and JetBlue over their partnership, alleging it would lead to higher fares in busy Northeastern U.S. airports. It is unclear if JetBlue would seek to continue that partnership if it was successful in acquiring Spirit. Frontier said it was "surprising that JetBlue would consider such a merger at this time given that the Department of Justice is currently suing to block their pending alliance with American Airlines." American did not immediately comment. JetBlue said the deal if completed is expected to deliver $600 million-$700 million in net annual synergies and that the combined airline is projected to have annual revenue of about $11.9 billion based on 2019 revenue.
Sprit's 52-week high of $39.19 is $6 above the reported offer from JetBlue. Just before COVID lockdowns became widespread, Spirit shares traded around $45. Spirit declined to comment beyond a written statement that it would review the offer. Frontier said its Spirit deal "is in the best interest of consumers and shareholders and would deliver $1 billion in annual savings for consumers" and argued "significant East Coast overlap between JetBlue and Spirit would reduce competition and limit options for consumers." In February, Frontier and Spirit proposed a merger that would create the fifth-largest U.S. airline.
Spirit's customer service has often faced criticism and the airline canceled 35% of its flights Monday amid weather issues. "Customers shouldn't have to choose between a low fare and a great experience, and JetBlue has shown it's possible to have both," said JetBlue Chief Executive Officer Robin Hayes**. The Spirit-Frontier deal faced criticism from some lawmakers and public interest groups warned in March that a merger between the carriers "would destroy competition in the only competitive market segment of the highly consolidated airline industry." The proposed tie-ups come as the U.S. airline industry is grappling with volatility in travel due to COVID. At the same time, costs are soaring on a combination of sharply higher fuel prices and rising wages.
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/jetblue-bids-spirit-airlines-us-government-official-2022-04-05/
** Air-travel hasn't been a "great experience" for over 2 decades-unless you like the greyhound bus with wings approach
member this?-cap
>>132277 pb Cathie Wood Says Fed Hiking Interest Rates Would Be a Mistake-bnnBBerg
Cathie Wood's ARKK is worst-performing US equity fund in Q1 2022: Morningstar
Market watchers were taken aback when Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Innovation fund fell 24% in 2021. This year, the widely popular ETF logged an even bigger loss in just the first quarter alone.
According to financial analytics firm Morningstar, Ark Innovation (ARKK) was the worst performing U.S. equity fund in its universe of coverage during the first quarter of 2022. The exchange-traded fund registered a loss of 29.9% in the three months ended March 31, dragged down by a sell-off in high-growth, technology stocks during the period.
U.S. tech funds bore the brunt of declines last quarter at an average loss of 13.7% — the worst quarter since 2018, per Morningstar data. Still, ARKK fared worse than its stylistic peers. By comparison, the QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF, used as a proxy for tech stocks, was down roughly 9.7% through the same period, and the Russell Midcap Growth Index registered a 12.6% drop. ARKK was dragged down by sharp losses in some of its biggest holdings: streaming company Roku (ROKU), which represented 6.5% of the fund as of March 30, lost more than 45% for the year-to-date; Zoom Video Communications (ZM), a 6.3% holding, fell more than 40%; and Shopify (SHOP), comprising a 2.7% stake, was down more than 50%, per Morningstar.
Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which at 9.8% makes up ARKK's biggest position, has been a relative outperformer, closing the quarter out only 1% lower year-to-date as of March 31, though holding onto gains from 2021 and masking the performance of some of Ark Innovation's smaller components. The picture could have been much worse without ARKK's stake in Tesla.
On top of its struggling performance, Morningstar downgraded its analyst rating on ARKK from Neutral to Negative last week, citing issues with the fund's risk management and ability to navigate the space it aims to explore. Despite losses and criticism of her approach, Wood has stayed the course and continues to promise that her bets on disruptive, innovation-focused companies will pay off in the long term. Also adding to its reason for the downgrade, Morningstar pointed out that Ark has a poor succession plan for Wood, 66, the firm's majority owner and lone portfolio manager. The firm’s director of research Brett Winton is in line to succeed Wood if needed but lacks the portfolio management experience, posing a “key-person risk.” Moreover, Morningstar pointed out that Ark Invest struggles to retain talent and sees analysts come and go, many of which “lack deep industry experience.”
“Wood has suggested that risk management lies not with her but with those who invest in ARK’s funds,” Greengold wrote. “It’s tough to see why that should be so.”
“ARK could do more to avert severe drawdowns of wealth, and its carelessness on the topic has hurt many investors of late,” he added. “It could hurt more in the future.”
ARKK was down 5.45% to $66.66 as of 1:40 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-woods-arkk-is-worst-performing-us-equity-fund-in-q-1-2022-morningstar-185220557.html
Peru calls off Copa Libertadores match, then allows it
Peru’s government allowed a Copa Libertadores match to proceed on Tuesday shortly after it had called it off amid protests over rising fuel and food prices. The confirmation that local Sporting Cristal and Brazil’s Flamengo will play came 2 hours and 30 minutes before kickoff.
President Pedro Castillo announced the decision to end a curfew in the capital Lima as local media debated his administration’s decision to suspend the match at the National Stadium.
Peru’s capital and its main port were under a tight curfew instituted by Castillo for most of the day in response to the violent protests, with armed soldiers and police deployed to enforce the measure.
Three hours before the time the match was supposed to start, the country’s sports authority said in a statement that the Copa Libertadores match would not go ahead.
South American soccer body CONMEBOL, which had also confirmed the suspension on Twitter, later reversed course to say the match would still take place.
https://apnews.com/article/soccer-sports-lima-copa-libertadores-violence-b77d9f1afca32ade9b551f7418fd242c
SAM671 USAF G5 on ground at JBA from Peterson AFB overnight
SAM744 USAF G5 inbound to JBA from Omaha-Eppley Field, NE- VIPs still using this in place of Offutt as the AC Ops still located at Lincoln Muni but the brass and administrative offices still at Offutt
Asian stocks skid, bond yields up (quite a bit since our close) after hawkish Fed comments
US Futures are flat to slightly down
Asian share markets slipped on Wednesday as investors faced up to the possibility of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve to fight inflation, while focus was also on new Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. Treasury yields hit multi-year highs-see below for current and cap #3- and stock markets were red after Fed Governor Lael Brainard said overnight that she expected a combination of interest rate rises and a rapid balance sheet runoff to take U.S. monetary policy to a "more neutral position" later this year. In morning trade in Asia, Japan's Nikkei shed nearly 2.0%, while South Korean shares fell 0.9% and Australian shares lost 0.75%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan skidded 1.3%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 1.3%, moving away from a one-month high hit on Monday. Shanghai lost 0.1% as markets in mainland China reopened after two days of public holidays. Activity in China's services sector shrank at the steepest pace in two years in March as a local Omicron surge restricted mobility and weighed on client demand, a closely watched private sector survey showed on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Chinese authorities extended a COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai to cover all of the financial centre's 26 million people, despite growing anger over quarantine rules in the city.
Investors' focus on Wednesday will be on the release of minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting, which they are expected to scrutinize for clues on the prospect of a 50 basis point hike at the U.S. central bank's next meeting in May. "It's currently considered an 80% chance the Fed will take that course," said Kyle Rodda, a market analyst at IG in Melbourne. Investors hadn't fully priced in such a move, so greater evidence for it may move markets, Rodda added. "There's expectation the Fed could hike 50 bps in June too, and if that becomes more likely, then a repricing of those risks could spark another spike in volatility," he said. The European Central Bank will publish its minutes on Thursday.
Investors were also waiting to see how a fresh round of Western sanctions on Russia would play out. The United States and its allies will on Wednesday impose new sanctions on Russian banks and officials and ban new investment in Russia, the White House said.
Oil prices fell on pressure from the rising dollar and growing worries that new coronavirus cases could slow demand, despite ongoing supply concerns.
U.S. crude was down 0.4% at $101.54 a barrel
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes continued to move higher, hitting a two-year high of 2.6130%-it just hit 2.615% a few minutes ago-cap #3
https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-wrapup-1-2022-04-06/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
In case you missed this on April 1st-see cap #4
Putin May Collect $321 Billion Windfall If Oil and Gas Keep Flowing
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/putin-may-collect-321-billion-windfall-if-oil-and-gas-keep-flowing-1.1746221
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
I'll drop an updated bun 'fore I leave
Yellen to Warn of ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’ From Ukraine Invasion
The Treasury secretary plans to highlight risks of rising food and energy prices at a congressional hearing on Wednesday.
Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen plans on Wednesday to warn of major consequences for the global economy as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with both the conflict and global sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s aggression disrupting the flow of food and energy around the world. The comments by Ms. Yellen, who will appear before a House committee on Wednesday, come as the United States and the European Union are poised to announce another round of sanctions on Russian financial institutions, government officials and state-owned enterprises as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of abating. “Russia’s actions represent an unacceptable affront to the rules-based, global order, and will have enormous economic repercussions in Ukraine and beyond,” Ms. Yellen will say at a Financial Services Committee hearing, according to her prepared remarks.
Ms. Yellen will make clear that the United States has no intention of easing the economic pressure it is exerting on Russia through sanctions on its central bank, financial institutions and leaders. Ms. Yellen plans to emphasize that more than half of the world economy is united in the effort to impose sanctions on Russia and that the Biden administration is working to ensure that Russia does not benefit from financing available through the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. “Treasury is committed to holding Russia accountable for its actions so it cannot benefit from the international financial system,” Ms. Yellen plans to tell lawmakers. Ms. Yellen also plans to underscore how the war in Ukraine is causing global food prices to surge amid disruptions to wheat exports, casting the effect as especially problematic for poor countries. She will also argue that Russia’s actions are a reminder to invest in energy independence so the world is not reliant on such nations for oil and gas. “We are witnessing the vulnerability that comes from relying on one fuel source or one trade partner, which is why it is imperative to diversify energy sources and suppliers,” Ms. Yellen will say. The economic disruption is taking place at a fragile moment, as the global economy emerges from the coronavirus pandemic, which has snarled supply chains and fueled inflation.
Ms. Yellen plans to note that low-income countries continue to need assistance in addressing their debt burdens and to call on international financial institutions to improve vaccine distribution to developing countries. “As long as this pandemic is raging anywhere in the world, the American people will still be vulnerable to new variants,” Ms. Yellen plans to say.
https://nightfallnews.com/category/money/Yellen-to-Warn-of-%E2%80%98Enormous-Economic-Repercussions%E2%80%99-From-Ukraine-Invasion
Mexican AF FAM3526 3527 3528 737s back to Mexico City
26 and 28 from Leon and 27 from Hermosillo with a ground stop at Chihuahua
They've got a Presidential referendum coming up on April 10th-which Obrador is expected to win handily
Mexican president poised to win historic, polarizing referendum on his rule
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-president-poised-win-historic-polarizing-referendum-his-rule-2022-04-01/
#894 update 2
>>132429 On this day, 89 yrs ago: US government confiscation of gold-soc media
>>132448 Blinken departs to Brussels-SAM672
>>132451, >>132461, >>132463, >>132466, >>132467, >>132473, >>132474, >>132484, >>132494, >>132500, >>132502, >>132509, >>132525, >>132531
pf report(s): SAMs over CONUS/daily look at Yerp-med/Brazilians at San Juan/BOXER haulin' ass back to JBA from Nashville/82-8000 out form JBA-still no sign of 92-9000 since 113020 and back to JBA/PAVER71 USAFSOC returns to CONUS after round da world trip-in at Pittsburgh Int'l/MANGO28 Indo-Pac Weenies to JBA
>>132464 IMF calls for $15 billion this year to manage long-term risks of COVID-reuters
>>132465 On His First Day Back as CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz Made a Highly Controversial, $20-Billion Decision
>>132468 in thank you Capt. Obvious news: It's Official: Deutsche Is The First Bank To Forecast A US Recession In Late 2023-zh
>>132469, >>132470 Russia Five-Year Default Risk "Jumps" to 87.7% After U.S. Ban-bnnBBerg
>>132472, >>132341 pb 2s10s flipped back-for how long d'oh
>>132475 Biden to extend student-loan repayment pause to Aug. 31-marketwatch
>>132480 Boeing factory problems disrupt new Air Force One production-nypost
>>132497 Mkt Fag: No relief for the NAS or anywhere else ftmp edition
>>132503 JetBlue bids $3.6 bln for Spirit in U.S. low-cost carrier battle-reuters
>>132504, >>132510, >>132520 Cathie Wood's ARKK is worst-performing US equity fund in Q1 2022: Morningstar
>>132505 inflation protest news: Peru calls off Copa Libertadores match, then allows it-apnews
>>132526 Asian stocks skid, bond yields up (quite a bit since our close) after hawkish Fed comments
>>132530 Yellen to Warn of ‘Enormous Economic Repercussions’ From Ukraine Invasion-NY Times via nightfallnews
>>132531 Mexican president poised to win historic, polarizing referendum occurs April 10th on his rule-reuters
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