>>10358993
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292873236716433416.html
1/ There is growing evidence that T-cell immunity allows populations to reach herd immunity once only 10-20% are infected with SARS-CoV-2.
This would explain why a highly transmissible virus in densely populated areas peaked at 10-20% infected regardless of lockdowns or masks.
2/ The pervasive misconception is that we have zero immunity against COVID-19. Based on this flawed understanding, epidemiologists projected that herd immunity is not reached until 60-70% are infected.
This is almost certainly wrong.
Of course, the media ignores this research
3/ While antibodies against COVID-19 may only last months, T cell immunity can remain protective for years.
In a study of 23 people who survived SARS in 2003, every single one had memory T cells that recognized the SARS virus 17 years later. (Nature)
4/ Moreover, blood samples from all 23 individuals showed “robust cross-reactivity” against SARS-CoV-2.
This can be called crossover immunity.
Crossover immunity is not limited to just people who were infected with SARS years ago though.
5/ In the same study, in 37 persons with no history of SARS or COVID-19 (negative serology and/or samples taken before COVID-19), over 50% had SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.
This is not surprising because there are at least 4 strains of coronaviruses that cause the "common cold".
6/ The above study is not the only one to show this level of cross-reactivity.
In a study from April 2020, in 68 healthy donors never exposed to COVID-19, 34% had T cells that reacted to SARS-CoV-2.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
7/ This finding was confirmed in yet another study published in Cell in June 2020 showing that 40-60% of unexposed individuals had T cell recognition of SARS-CoV-2.
The authors hypothesized that crossover immunity came from “common cold” coronaviruses.
8/ Crossover immunity may explain why so many young and middle-aged individuals are asymptomatic even when testing positive for coronavirus.
It is likely that their T cells recognized the virus and mounted an immune response before even mild symptoms surfaced.
9/ What does this mean?
All those runny noses from the common cold prepared our T cells to fight COVID-19.
Although it has been ominously called the “novel-coronavirus”, SARS-CoV-2 is yet another coronavirus with many similarities in structure to the common cold coronaviruses.
10/ Why are the elderly hit so hard by COVID-19 though?
Indeed the strain of coronavirus that we faced in 2020 is more lethal than those in the past, specifically in the elderly and immunocompromised…
11/ …With an understanding of T cell immunity, it makes sense that the elderly are more affected by COVID-19.
It is well known that persons in advanced age and/or who are immunocompromised lose T cells.
12/ Let’s get back to herd immunity via T cells.
If ~50% of people had T cell immunity prior to SARS-CoV-2, then that leaves 50% of the population susceptible.
In the regions hit hardest by COVID-19, serology studies show new cases and deaths peaked at around 10-20% infected.
13/ Adding the 50% who already had T cell immunity from common cold viruses to the newly infected 10-20% equals about 60-70% immunity.
Not coincidentally, 60-70% is the percentage epidemiologists project is necessary for herd immunity with a respiratory virus.
14/ It is likely that many of the hardest hit regions of the world (e.g. Lombardy, NYC, Madrid, London, Stockholm) are now at herd immunity.
Lockdowns & mask ordinances (mostly coming after the peak) likely had little effect, with the exception of perhaps prolonging the spread.
15/ Sweden is an example of what herd immunity looks like without lockdowns or masks.
Based on serology testing, ~20% of Stockholm was infected by April.
Deaths peaked in Sweden in April.
Today, the pandemic is over in Sweden with zero deaths per day & subsiding new infections