Kolanovic Says Trump Re-Election Odds Are Soaring, Prompting Nate Silver To Melt Down On Twitter

On Saturday, we showed that Trump had received a healthy boost in support following the Republican National Convention (and just around the time of the latest rioting in Kenosha and elsewhere) while enthusiasm for Joe Biden has slipped, according to a new poll by Morning Consult. We also showed that a far more dramatic race was reflected in Real Clear Politics' betting average between Trump and Biden, using data from oddsmakers Betfair, Bovada, Bwin, Matchbook, Smarkets and SpreadEx.

This morning, in his latest note, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic laid out "what is next for markets" and his contention was that as the data we showed over the weekend reveal, "investors should position for rising odds of Trump re-election" as "Trump’s re-election chances are rising and are already higher than currently reflected in investment styles." This matters because "the impact on sectors and factors (momentum vs value, cyclicals vs tech, ESG) could be dramatic and investment portfolios should adjust for a potential Trump re-election."

"Over the past few days, Trump’s betting odds are rapidly increasing" Kolanovic said, stating that he analyzed and quantified "2 effects that we believe are driving this shift and may significantly impact the election outcome." The JPM quant then explained that "Trump’s betting odds started plummeting with the onset of large protests in early June. During the month of August, Trump was as much as 25 points behind and investors took Biden’s election for granted (we cautioned this may be premature). However, during the month of August, Trump’s betting odds started improving, with the largest increase happening over the past week. Currently, betting odds have Trump virtually tied with Biden."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kolanovic-says-trump-re-election-odds-are-soaring-prompting-nate-silver-meltdown-twitter

Israeli Prime Minister Claims ‘Many’ Arab Nations ‘Lining Up’ To Normalize Relations

Tel Aviv is in talks with ‘many’ Arab nations that are ‘in line’ to establish relations with Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed in the wake of the UAE ‘normalizing’ relations with the Jewish state.

“There are many more unpublicized meetings with Arab and Muslim leaders to normalize relations with the state of Israel,” Netanyahu said at a joint press conference with US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien and Jared Kushner, the White House senior adviser

The prime minister did not specify which Arab nations are involved, but he claimed that other Arab and Muslim leaders are lining up to normalize relations. He further asserted that the UAE’s decision to normalize relations with Israel has deprived Palestine of its ‘veto’ on peace between the Jewish state and the Arab world.

UAE’s president, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, has just signed a decree abolishing a 1972 law banning any deals between the Emirates and Israel. The move is a part of the implementation process of the normalization agreement mediated by the US and signed earlier this month.

The deal was sharply criticized by Palestinian officials as well as by some other nations, such as Turkey, that accused Abu Dhabi of betraying the Palestinian cause in pursuit of its own interests.

On Monday of this week, the first direct flight between Israel and the UAE will carry a joint US-Israeli delegation led by Kushner and Israeli National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat to the Arab state. An Israeli Defense Ministry delegation is also expected to travel to Abu Dhabi soon.

While many Arab rulers have maintained secret relations and collaboration with Israel for many years in varying degrees of substance and significance, the official normalization of relations with Israel absent a conclusive and comprehensive peace agreement that is acceptable to the Palestinians remained a step too far for most Arab and Muslim countries.

A recent report by the Jerusalem Post comments that, in the wake of the normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, there have been rumours that several other states could be next to sign an agreement with Israel. Noting that there are still considerable hurdles to normalizing relations with some states in the Middle East, the report argues that there are others who view the UAE decision as a trial balloon and will adjust their official postures based on how the next weeks and months play out between Jerusalem and Abu Dhabi.

The report compiles a list of five countries that it considers are most likely to normalize relations with Israel in the near future.

https://southfront.org/israeli-prime-minister-claims-many-arab-nations-lining-up-to-normalize-relations/

Pittsburgh Heckler to Biden, “Hey Joe, You Finally Got Out of the Basement!”

Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden made a campaign stop in Pittsburgh Monday where he gave a speech and visited a fire station where he delivered pizzas.

When Biden arrived at the fire station, he was heckled as he stepped out of a Secret Service vehicle by a man reportedly waving a Trump flag who was standing on a truck just down the street, “Hey Joe, you finally got out of the basement!”

The heckler said a couple things difficult to hear on video but Biden, still quick on his feet at 77, heard and replied to the heckler, “Don’t jump! Don’t jump! Don’t jump!”

The heckler proceeded to lambaste Biden about his reversal on banning fracking. Biden campaigned on banning fracking but now says he is against a ban.

The incident was posted to Twitter by Bloomberg reporter Tyler Pager, “Biden was being heckled by a Trump supporter as he arrived to deliver pizzas. The man was waving a Trump flag as he stood on top of a truck. Biden’s response to him: “Don’t jump.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/08/pittsburgh-heckler-biden-hey-joe-finally-got-basement/

Syrian Air Defense Activated To Repel Israeli Strikes On Damascus, Daraa

Late on August 31, air defense forces of Syria were activated to repel an Israeli missile strikes on the countryside of the Syrian capital of Damascus and the southern part of the country.

According to reports, Israeli missiles targeted positions of Iranian-backed forces in the area of Mahajah and Hezbollah positions in the area of Izraa in the province of Daraa. Another group of missiles reportedly hit alleged positions of Iranian-backed forces in the area of Sahnaya in the Damascus countryside.

The missiles were allegedly launched from the area of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. According to Syrian media, at least 2 people were killed and 7 others were injured in the attack. The material damage was also reported.

https://southfront.org/in-videos-syrian-air-defense-activated-to-repel-isaeli-strikes-on-damascus-daraa/

New Federal Court Rulings Find Geofence Warrants Unconstitutional

Two federal magistrate judges in three separate opinions have ruled that a geofence warrant violates the Fourth Amendment’s probable cause and particularity requirements. Two of these rulings, from the federal district court in Chicago, were recently unsealed and provide a detailed constitutional analysis that closely aligns with arguments EFF and others have been making against geofence warrants for the last couple years.

Geofence warrants, also known as reverse location searches, are a relatively new investigative technique used by law enforcement to try to identify a suspect. Unlike ordinary warrants for electronic records that identify the suspect in advance of the search, geofence warrants essentially work backwards by scooping up the location data from every device that happened to be in a geographic area during a specific period of time in the past. The warrants therefore allow the government to examine the data from individuals wholly unconnected to any criminal activity and use their own discretion to try to pinpoint devices that might be connected to the crime. Earlier this summer, EFF filed an amicus brief in People v. Dawes, a case in San Francisco Superior Court, arguing that a geofence warrant used there violates deep-rooted Fourth Amendment law.

In Chicago, the government applied to a magistrate judge for a geofence warrant as part of an investigation into stolen pharmaceuticals. Warrant applications like these occur before there is a defendant in a case, so they are almost never adversarial (there’s no lawyer representing a defendant’s interest), and we rarely find out about them until well after the fact, which makes these unsealed opinions all the more interesting.

Here, the government submitted an application to compel Google to disclose unique device identifiers and location information for all devices within designated areas during forty-five minute periods on three different dates. The geofenced areas were in a densely populated city near busy streets with restaurants, commercial establishments, a medical office, and “at least one large residential complex, complete with a swimming pool, workout facilities, and other amenities associated with upscale urban living.”

As we’ve seen with other geofence warrants, the government’s original application proposed a three-step protocol to obtain the information. At the first step, Google would produce detailed and anonymized location data for devices that reported their location within the geofences for three forty-five minute periods. After that, the government would review that information and produce a list of devices for which it desired additional information. Then at the last step, Google would be required to produce information identifying the Google accounts for the requested devices.

https://www.activistpost.com/2020/08/new-federal-court-rulings-find-geofence-warrants-unconstitutional.html

Bankrupt JC Penney May Be Bought By Its Lenders

JC Penney, which filed for bankruptcy in mid-May, could fall into the hands of its lenders after talks with potential buyers have come to a “stalemate,” CNBC reported.

The retailer, which has been courted by Sycamore Partners and Hudson Bay Co., may now have its lenders take over the company as part of an effort to keep stores open and save jobs.

As discussions stalled with the potential buyers, Joshua Sussberg, an attorney at Kirkland & Ellis, said in the bankruptcy hearing that time was running out for JC Penney by its lenders, which include H/2 Capital Partners, as a standalone company.

During the hearing, Sussberg said the transaction to purchase JC Penney by its lenders should be completed within 30 days.

"Our lenders are no longer going to be held hostage in negotiations with third parties. While it is possible that one of the bidders comes back into the transaction, we can no longer stand idly by and allow for negotiating postures to stand in the way of 70,000 jobs and our vendor base," Sussberg said.

The purchase agreement will help to salvage several of JC Penney’s stores, many of which were on the chopping block as discussions with potential bidders fell through.

At the time it filed for bankruptcy, JC Penney announced it would be closing 242 stores. That number was later reduced, but layoffs plagued the retailer as about 1,000 employees were cut as it shut down about 150 stores. JC Penney had about 860 stores at the time it filed for bankruptcy.

https://www.ibtimes.com/bankrupt-jc-penney-may-be-bought-its-lenders-3037647

The New York Times Does Accidental Journalism on COVID-19 Testing

Occasionally, someone who genuinely wants to inform the public actually publishes at the New York Times. For months the paper has been a full-throated participant in the COVID-19 panic-porn industry with stories ranging from a rare reaction in children to a “reinfection” in Hong Kong.

All of a sudden, reporter Apoora Madavilli came out with an honest report about COVID-19 testing. While I have been writing about this for a few months, it was shocking to see this level of honesty from the Times:

Some of the nation’s leading public health experts are raising a new concern in the endless debate over coronavirus testing in the United States: The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.

The article goes on to explain, in technical detail, the oversensitivity of the most common COVID-19 test, the PCR test. This fact was first noted in public by Dr. Beda M. Stadler, a Swiss biologist, emeritus professor, and former director of the Institute of Immunology at the University of Bern. He noted the PCR test is not indicative of whether the virus particle found is alive or dead. It can also not assess whether the particle found is capable of replicating and causing an infection:

So if we do a PCR corona test on an immune person, it is not a virus that is detected, but a small shattered part of the viral genome. The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left. Correct: Even if the infectious viruses are long dead, a corona test can come back positive, because the PCR method multiplies even a tiny fraction of the viral genetic material enough [to be detected].

Dr. Stadler made these comments in an interview on June 10. By mid-July, the CDC had updated the guidance regarding retesting. The statement on the site is clear that for at least 90 days after recovery, viral debris can be detected in a patient’s airways. This virus is not capable of causing an infection because it is not capable of replication.

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stacey-lennox/2020/08/31/the-new-york-times-does-accidental-journalism-on-covid-19-testing-n867152

US Navy Hawkeye Aircraft Crashes in Virginia

A US Navy E-2C Hawkeye crashed in Virginia on Monday during a training flight.

All four people on the plane, including two pilots and two crew members, have been safely located. There are no injuries or property damage reported aside from the aircraft.

According to WTVR, the aircraft wreckage was located by police near the intersection of Berry Road and Mason Road in Bloxom, a town in Accomack County, Virginia. Officials were alerted to the crash at around 3:40 p.m. local time.

The intersection has been closed while the crash is investigated by law enforcement officials.

https://sputniknews.com/military/202008311080331988-us-navy-hawkeye-aircraft-crashes-in-virginia/

>>10486770

IMF

Macron

both owned by rothschild

>>10486785 US Navy Hawkeye Aircraft Crashes in Virginia

>>10487024

>>>10486785 The New York Times Does Accidental Journalism on COVID-19 Testing

China’s Huawei responds to US crackdown by boosting investment in Russia

Aggressive US policies targeting Huawei have forced the Chinese tech giant to redirect investment to Russia and expand operations in the country, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei has revealed.

“After the United States included us in the Entity List, we transferred our investment in the United States to Russia, increased Russian investment, expanded the Russian scientist team, and increased the salary of Russian scientists,” Ren said as cited by Shanghai Jiao Tong University, one of the four top Chinese universities he visited. While the visit came in late July, the university did not publish a transcript of his speech until this weekend.

It is unclear how much the world’s largest telecommunications equipment vendor is now pouring into Russia. Last year, Huawei announced plans to invest more than $10 million in the development of its mobile services ecosystem in Russia and vowed to give around $7.8 million to promote 5G technology in the country and train 10,000 specialists by 2025. It has also teamed up with Russian operators on the rollout of the next-generation networks, and helped launch the first 5G test zone in Moscow.

With the US and China locked in a trade war, the Trump administration has blacklisted Huawei and other Chinese firms, alleging they are national security threats.

Despite Huawei’s denials of the accusation, Washington continues to put pressure on the company, recently depriving it of foreign chip supplies. Earlier this month, the tech giant acknowledged that it will have to stop making the chipsets powering its flagship smartphones.

“Some US politicians want Huawei dead,” Huawei’s founder said in the recently published speech. Ren added that American politicians’ attitudes does not represent American companies and society, so the company “will never hate” the US, “no matter what.”

https://www.rt.com/business/499490-huawei-boosts-russia-investment/

De Blasio’s NYC: Manhattan Judge Cold-Cocked in Broad Daylight by Cyclist While Walking to Work

This is Mayor Bill de Blasio’s New York City.

A Manhattan judge on Monday was cold-cocked by a male stranger in broad daylight as she headed to her job at a downtown courthouse.

Judge Phyllis Chu had just gotten off the Staten Island ferry and was heading to a downtown court when a complete stranger riding a bike punched her in the jaw.

The incident happened on the corner of Wall and Water streets at 9:40 AM Monday.

The judge suffered a swollen lip, according to the New York Post.

Via The New York Post:

A Manhattan judge became the latest victim of senseless city violence when she was cold-cocked by an apparent stranger on a Citi Bike while walking to work Monday, officials and law enforcement sources told The Post.

Criminal court Judge Phyllis Chu, 56, had just gotten off the Staten Island Ferry and was headed to her job at the downtown courthouse at 100 Centre St. around 9:40 a.m. when she was suddenly slugged in the jaw by a male cyclist at the corner of Wall and Water streets.

“With no words exchanged, a bicyclist riding in the opposite direction as the one she was walking in just punched her in the face and kept going,’’ Lucian Chalfen, spokesman for the city’s Office of Court Administration, told The Post.

The New York City Police Benevolent Association blasted the City Council for voting to slash $1 billion from the NYPD’s budget.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/08/de-blasios-nyc-manhattan-judge-cold-cocked-broad-daylight-cyclist-walking-work/

YES, yes you do!

As US Warship Again Transits Taiwan Strait, Taipei & Beijing Warn Each Other: 'Risk Of Accidental Conflict Likely'

For the second time in two weeks, the US Navy has sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait in what the Pentagon dubbed a "routine Taiwan Strait transit".

It happened Sunday, also confirmed by Taiwan's Defense Ministry, just over a week following a reported Chinese PLA military build-up and war games in the area, especially on the mainland coast.

The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey sailed through without incident, though however "routine" the US might want to frame the mission, the potential for an unintended incident or clash with Chinese forces remains high, especially given the recent U-2 spy plane incident, which Beijing said breached a 'no fly zone' over PLA live fire drills.

China warned of the breach a week ago that the US risked causing an “unexpected incident” through its “naked provocation” and unsafe flights in the region of the South China Sea. It fired four cruise missiles into the South China Sea in a rare, significant warning in the form of a "test".

Concerning the latest US warship transit, US Seventh Fleet representative Reann Mommsen said, "The ship's transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the U.S. commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. The U.S. Navy will continue to fly, sail and operate anywhere international law allows," according to Reuters.

It took a southerly path and made its way further south, according to Taiwan defense officials.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-warship-sails-through-taiwan-straight-second-time-2-weeks-taipei-agrees-beijing

>>10487166

UAE Does Not Refuse Support for Creation of Independent Palestine, Foreign Ministry Says

The United Arab Emirates is not against support for the creation of an independent Palestinian state with the capital in East Jerusalem, despite normalization of relations with Israel, UAE Foreign Minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said.

"The UAE stance is firm and settled in regard to support of the unchanging Arab stance on the creation of an independent Palestinian state with the capital in East Jerusalem", bin Zayed said in a video address to Palestinians.

The minister stressed that the UAE's decision to normalize relations with Israel was a strategic and necessary choice that was not going to undermine the rights of the Palestinian people.

On Monday, the very first direct passenger flight from Israel to the UAE took the high-level US and Israeli delegations from Tel Aviv to Abu Dhabi through Saudi airspace. The Israeli delegation is led by the National Security Council head, Meir Ben Shabbat. The US delegation is headed by Senior Presidential Advisor Jared Kushner and National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien.

The visit is expected to last for two days. The agenda includes high-level meetings on cooperation in various fields ahead of signing a historic peace deal between the two countries.

Previously, the UAE and Israel announced that they had agreed to normalize bilateral relations and establish diplomatic ties as part of a deal brokered by the United States. The UAE is set to become the third Arab country to fully recognize Israel after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

In mid-August, UAE Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation for Cultural Affairs Omar Saif Ghobash said that UAE believed that Israel was not going to proceed with its West Bank annexation plans after suspending them as part of the historic bilateral peace deal with the UAE.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/202008311080332239-uae-does-not-refuse-support-for-creation-of-independent-palestine-foreign-ministry-says/