Biden’s Lead in Betting Markets Is Growing Ahead of the First Presidential Debate
As of Monday, RealClearPolitics’ average of betting odds currently puts Biden’s chances of a victory at 54.6% chance of victory, compared to Trump at 44.5%. That’s Biden’s highest mark since Aug. 25, during the Republican National Convention. On Sept. 2, betting markets gave Biden gave Biden a 50% chance to Trump’s 49.5% odds.
In terms of national polling, Biden was recently up 49.7% to Trump’s 42.9%, according to RCP’s average. In battleground states, as defined by the website, Biden averages 48.7% to Trump’s 45%. His slimmest lead is in North Carolina, at 47% to 46.2%.
Lori Calvasina, chief U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, has tracked the relationship between U.S. election betting markets and stocks. For about a year heading into the second quarter of 2020, the S&P 500 index has moved up in step with the odds of a Trump victory. Though that relationship broke down as Biden gained ground this summer, it returned in late August and early September.
Sauce: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/bidens-lead-in-betting-markets-is-growing-ahead-of-the-first-presidential-debate-51601335709?mod=mw_latestnews
"This is hard to believe, anons, given the near zero turnout at Biden parades and other events. Maybe the betters are going by the poll results! Kek! I am thinking we should bet money on Trump and make some extra cash. How about you?"