American Oligarchy: Top Spenders Won Nearly 90% Of 2020 Races
As it has for the past two decades, money performed well this election cycle, helping candidates from both sides of the aisle win. Across the board, 88 percent of congressional races were won by the candidate who spent the most.
Historically, this trend is stronger in the House than the Senate and 2020 was no exception. This year, the top-spending House candidate won 89.2 percent of the time. In the Senate, the top-spender won 71.9 percent of the time, a record low in recent years.
But money didn’t win every race. In the Senate, Democrats lost races even after raising unprecedented amounts of money. That same dynamic played out in toss-up House races. Meanwhile, GOP House challengers spent big in Blue districts, but lost big, too.
While candidate spending was, overall, a strong predictor of who would win a race in 2020, outside spending also played a role. Since the 2010 Citizens United v. FEC decision, super PACs and “dark money” groups have poured billions of dollars into U.S. elections. This year, over 70 percent of House races were won by the candidate with greater support from outside groups. In the Senate, that number was much lower, about 44 percent.
However, when outside groups and candidate committees collectively spent more, House candidates won over 90 percent of the time and Senate candidates won almost 69 percent of the time. These win rates are nearly identical to win rates of candidate spending alone, but jump for GOP House candidates. Republicans won 81.4 percent of House races when their candidate spent the most but it rises to 85.6 percent when outside spending is added in
In the 10 most expensive House races by candidate spending, all but one of the winners was the top-spender. In Minnesota’s 5th District, incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar spent $4.5 million less than her opponent Lacy Johnson and crushed the Republican by nearly 40 points.
https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2020/11/top-spenders-won-88-percent-of-2020-races/