Mkt Fag: Frazier stayed down and din't get up-a tale of no liquidity** with lots 'o humidity (sweat)-edition
** see article below
Keep in mind this is all very orderly-no circuit breakers because they don't want THAT-would really stand out nao. It's basically sitting here after after the open and then dumped into close on increased volume. At some point someone is gonna "flinch" and if that is allowed it all depends on the depth of the order book-which is pretty fuggen shallow so they all sit and "wait" for muh 'cavalary' that is not coming. But someone will pull a Lehman thang for sure-they can't help themselves.
Today is follow through on the first two hours from friday-it just stopped and did nothingafter that-Tiger Global was liquidating >>16223331, >>16223428, >>16223468 pb and when they shoved all the shit out they could the mkts were just flat waiting for someone else to flinch.
Same shit going on today they sold it down with a little bounce mid-day but there is some MAJOR LIQUIDATIONS going on here-they do not have enough liquidity so they are totally stuck and everyone is waiting for the shoe to drop and biting fingernails-"will they do it or do we have to first".. See here for last night's early Asian session-HK shut for holiday >>16237288 pb
B-B-But muh financial MSM sez it's all about "Fed Anguish".
Pay no attention to the liquidations going on at Tiger and also Melvin Capital is certainly in the mix that "shit" is much moar widely known-dhey quiet on Tiger Boi though-totally SILENT. Tiger had the single largest loss in hedge fund history up through April. Those big blocks observed were likely combination of them and Softbank and some other big whales either getting out or being forced. When you employ this much leverage it has to keep going"up"-sideways does not cut it at 50:1 or moar. See Archegos Capital and also one of Julian's "cubs".
Dopey filed an amended 13D-see here >>16240972 pb Done because he went from 9.1% to 14.1% so that triggers this filing and why he announced he was 'on-board' last week. The filing was made today and transaction ocurred on Weds, May 4th-"Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud has pledged 35 million in Twitter shares in support of Musk, according to the filing". I did not re-do the calcs on his threshold with TSLA as of yet-because we lacked the official docs but based on some quick back-of-envelope stuff looks it appears those will not be a problem until around $600 or a little lower. Exactly the reason he went for the additional funding-they toyed with it last week and week before and basically said "you need us".
The ded stocks today were: MELI, OKTA, OKTA, Clownstrike, SGEN,ILMN-all these down 10% or moar, AMD,TEAM, NVDA and TSLA at just under -10%. Top performers were: KHC (really nigga!?), AMGN, MRNA-..:I, PCAR up over 1% and CTSH, EBAY, CHTR, MDLZ and a few moar at just under +1%. The Nasdaq is now down over 27% from its record highs - that's a bigger drawdown than Small Caps..The S&P broke the key 4,000 level. Of course all the "most shorted stocks were shot on the side of the road-what helps you on the way "up" gets tossed quickly at any sign of weakness. Overall volume on the NAS just under daily avg, DOW over and the usual SP500 under-but the volume in the SP500 picked up the most in the last 20 minutes and that represents the "real stuff" companies-as much as a fake and manipulate market can be.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/nasdaq_100?op=1
Treasury complex-see cap#310 yr acting 'normal' in a down mkt for once over a 1% drop in yield @-(0.09 ) 3.040%. 30 yr fixed @5.54% (+0.12%) so this puts additional pressure on long term home financing as the long end rises and the short end gets clubbed-no one wants long dated debt any moar-except the primary dealers who have to buy it. It has risen 10bp since 0505. The short-end massively outperformed today (2Y -14bps, 30Y -3bps), leaving 2s and 5s now significantly lower post-FOMC and 30Y notably higher.
FOREX- USD-Ruble-Yen-see cap#4 Ruble down down around -1.26% @0.014286 USD 0.25 -0.24% @103.41 and had a bounce right at 8:30am est but that gone by 12:19pm est. US$ did nuffin. Muh ¥ about the same but working on it's second leg higher (increasing in value) +0.07 -0.05% @130.37
NYFRB Operations today
This is all pretty much fake but is allows the system to keep itself propped becasue all the real action in Sovereign Debt is paid off in Gold-the paper is the facade so you don't look anywhere else-but it's worth showing what they are up to.
Mortgage backed Securities (MBS)
$9.14B submitted and $3.8B accpeted in a total of 4 transactions-split bewteen two of Class A and 2 of Class B
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs
Reverse Repos
$1.858T submitted and all of that "cash" exchanged for paper'''
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Securities Lending Operations
$45.07B submitted vs. $43.13B accepted
Biggest chunk here was 10yr @$5.92B CUSIP 91282CDY4
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/securities-lending
Oil/Energy-see cap#4 WTI spiked to just over $108.xx and then dropped like a liberal's pants hearing "muh Ukraine". It is finally realizing what the definition of demand destruction really means -plus they can't really slam it cause of Muh Aramco needing it over $100. Natty Gas got smacked in the early overnight session and has grabbed a small bid-damage done to it last night. WTI finished at -7.28(-6.63%)'''see upper right of cap#2
>>16240990 pb India strives to cash in on cheap Russian crude – media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEfzunU0q64
Metals-see cap#5 closed Au/Ag both up on the NYMEX open but quickly arrested-damage done in the overnight sessions dropping Ag to $21.63 (and continues to head towards it's date with sub-$20) Au dropped to $1855.50. Au has a prety well-defined intra-day dandruff problem with Ag less so as it's left shoulder is pretty undefined but can be construed as such. The both closed on the LOD. Ag is also a by-product of lead, copper and zinc mining so when you see issues with those mines it has a negative impact on Ag supply. Moar on that: https://geology.com/minerals/silver.shtml
The 'offical' #s put out by places such as the Silver Institute/Silver Users Association and the like are complete fabrications-they are there only to tell a story..and that story is that there is much moar Ag available to be mined or has been mined. This keeps up the facade-in fact something like 60% of all Ag mined is sitting in landfills in electronics and not easily recoverable. Gold/Silver ratio in nao over $85 @ 85.120+0.895 (+1.06%) because of the much bigger (as usual) smackage in Ag with Au 'only' down but it's worst close in a week-they NEVER mention Ag
https://goldprice.com/gold-silver-ratio/
This is not bad information however keep in mind that the CB's own most of the Au and they want you in it-another example that they don't talk about Ag.
>>16242561 lb SILVER: 100-200X Leverage
skip to about a minute and pay attention to what he says about derivatives and AG and overall commodity supply levels-all at record lows. Just how they are gonna fund all their Green Energy "shit" with some phantom supply that does not exist is pretty funny to watch play out.
The Gold stuff is meh-they want you in THAT cause they own it all but worth the listen
Some Headlines
Fed Warns of Worsening Financial Liquidity in Stability Report
The Federal Reserve warned of deteriorating liquidity conditions across key financial markets amid rising risks from the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening and high inflation in a semi-annual report published Monday.
“According to some measures, market liquidity has declined since late 2021 in the markets for recently-issued U.S. cash Treasury securities and for equity index futures,” the U.S. central bank said in its Financial Stability Report.
“While the recent deterioration in liquidity has not been as extreme as in some past episodes, the risk of a sudden significant deterioration appears higher than normal,” the report said. “In addition, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, liquidity has been somewhat strained at times in oil futures markets, while markets for some other affected commodities have been subject to notable dysfunction.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/fed-warns-of-worsening-financial-liquidity-in-stability-report-1.1763389
and this means they are not getting enough comments that 'they' want-cause "Gary" certainly did not extend the deadline (mebby he did to make it look legit-can't remember but the outcome was certainly bullshit) for the Silver manipulation public comment period when he ran the CFTC.
SEC Extends Comment Period for Proposed Rules on Climate-Related Disclosures, Reopens Comment Periods for Proposed Rules Regarding Private Fund Advisers and Regulation ATS
The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that it has extended the public comment period on the proposed rulemaking to enhance and standardize climate-related disclosures for investors until June 17, 2022. The SEC also announced that it will reopen the comment periods on the proposed rulemaking to enhance private fund investor protection and on the proposed rulemaking to include significant Treasury markets platforms within Regulation ATS for 30 days.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-82
Fed Survey: Banks reported Eased Standards, Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate Loans
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/05/fed-survey-banks-reported-eased.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd30y
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/rubusd
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/ngas.php
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart