Economic Schedule for Week of May 21, 2023
The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, April New Home Sales (carnage), and Personal Income and Outlays for April. For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. Plus the completely hopium based GDPNOW (Atlanta FED) gets an update on Friday after raising is from 2.6% to 2.9% on this last tuesday
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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Monday, May 22nd -
No major economic releases scheduled.
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Tuesday, May 23rd -
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 660 thousand SAAR, down from 683 thousand SAAR in March.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.
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Wednesday, May 24th -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (still more carnage here-but it may show a slight improvement as the masses are starting to get that the FOMC is done raising rates)
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Minutes Meeting of May 2-3, 2023 (they will say "data-dependent, stay the course"..blah, blah but Prime rate is now at fake inflation (4.9%) so they will just keep them there for this next FOMC meeting in June-for certain-and then in August however that is very unlikely (august pause) as there will be yet another created crisis where 50-75bp will come off in an emergency cut)
Still at basically 83% for a pause and 17% for a hike-pay attention to what they do and NOT what the various FED speakers say since they always have opposing viewpoints to keep people thinking that they will raise rates-markets (bond) have spoken and the markets dictate what rates are…D-O-N-E…..30y mortgage rates closing in on 7% again @6.90%….cap#4
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
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Thursday, May 25th -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 250 thousand initial claims, up from 242 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2023 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.1% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the advance estimate of 1.1%.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.
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Friday, May 26th -
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2023. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 4.3% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.6% YoY.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.1% decrease in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for May). The consensus is for a reading of 57.7.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/05/schedule-for-week-of-may-21-2023.html