Russia Is Still Progressing in Africa. What's the Limit?
Introduction
Recent events such as the armed rebellion led by the Wagner Group’s chief Yevgeny Prigozhin against Russia’s military leadership and Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal triggered speculations over a potential inflection point in Russia’s growing footprint in Africa. Yet other signs, such as Prigozhin shaking hands with officials from the Central African Republic (CAR) in Saint Petersburg while the 2023 Russia-Africa summit was unfolding, or Russian flags being flown during the Niger coup this July, suggest that Russia’s influence in Africa is here to stay. In fact, the Kremlin’s playbook on the continent will most likely be recalibrated rather than overturned.
The current volatile situation calls for a coolheaded look at the fundamentals of Russia’s existing footprint and its forays across the continent, to better assess how they might evolve and how to address them. Russia’s breakthroughs in Africa are owed in part to a rekindling of Soviet-era relations. Yet the Kremlin’s remarkable advances on the continent throughout the last decade also result from twin contemporary efforts: adept diplomatic reengagement with key regional players and opportunistic predation in areas where Western powers are either absent or in trouble.
While the U.S.-led effort to form a global coalition aimed at isolating Russia internationally has indeed strengthened the transatlantic alliance, it has not yet fully convinced the rest of the world, including countries on the African continent, to break ties with Moscow. In fact, many across Africa regard the war in Ukraine as primarily a Western problem and are preoccupied with protecting their own national interests. Even with the war and sanctions straining Russia’s economy and defense sector, the Kremlin retains sufficient ties with the continent to challenge Western narratives.
This paper examines Russia’s creeping influence over Africa, assessing Moscow’s historic legacy as well as the current diplomatic, economic, and military-security links that contribute to the region’s continued willingness to engage with Russia. In doing so, particular attention is paid to the Russian private military company (PMC) Wagner Group, which has been playing an important role in forging ties between the Kremlin and different African nations, despite the uncertainty following Prigozhin’s rebellion in June 2023. It then offers analysis and recommendations to Western policymakers, outlining new approaches the transatlantic community should adopt to counter a rising Russia in Africa.
The Kremlin’s Playbook in Africa: From Diplomatic to Military Footprint
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Russia’s Diplomatic Reengagement with Africa
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Russo-African Economic and Trade Relations
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Russo-African Defense and Security Cooperation
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Russia’s Continued Progress in Africa, despite the War in Ukraine and Domestic Fissure
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What to Do Now? New Offer, New Tactics, and New Branding
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Overarching Recommendations
Devise a security cooperation package that will be principled but not transactional. …
Redouble efforts in the energy domain. …
Build strategic partnerships free from “neo–Cold War” perceptions. …
Actively prove Russian narratives wrong. …
Engage with new partners that are more palatable to the African public. …
Preserve an ability to act against traditional and potential new threats. …
Country-Specific Recommendations
The United States: Africa is too important to be let down. …
Europe: Get serious about “Europeanisation.” …
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-still-progressing-africa-whats-limit