Economic Schedule for Week of December 10, 2023
[ ] additional comments
The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York Fed survey will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. [Probabilities say rate cut in March as it’s already creeping up to the “no cut” % however a “crisis” can be created with a click of a mouse and cut at ANY point cap 2 is March meeting showing how close the market expectations are between none and 25bp cut.]
[Let us not forget the Societe General panic dump and subsequent emergency rate cut in Jan 2008 and the answer the below article is an emphatic YES]
>”surprise” 75 basis-point interest rate cut on Tuesday, a move done AFTER the loss disclosure but no relation….in fact it was total PANIC
Did SocGen trades trigger market rout, Fed cut?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-socgen-markets-idUSL2455504620080124/
[The “rogue” trader is a BS story and always has been-there is NFW they dint know wut he had done as even the most lax Risk Mgmt. Dept would have, at the very least, see one way flows but the show worked and I’m sure Mr. Kerviel was paid handsomely to be the patsy]
The key economic reports this week are November CPI [wut do you want it to be ?along with muh surveys] and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York Fed survey will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. [fuggen DERP!]
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Monday, December 11th -
No major economic releases scheduled.
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Tuesday, December 12th -
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for no change in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.0% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 4.0% YoY. [they have subtly made 3% the new acceptable “rate of inflation” they are willing to declare ‘victory’ with containing inflation-the myriad of FED head speeches have made reference to this being what they will be happy with-its all fake BS but this is their story and are sticking to it]
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Wednesday, December 13th -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. [Fresh 4 month lows will see an increase for sure]
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. [this is where you will see deflation eventually]
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections. [they do these ‘projections’ 4x a year and an opportunity to continue the soft landing narrative]
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. [and as any seasoned trader knows the first move after the ‘announcement’ is usually not the way it goes after the presser however ther may be little in it unless they make language changes to overall statement]
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Thursday, December 14th -
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in retail sales. [really going out on a limb dhere /s and NOT adjusted for inflation so means little]
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand, unchanged from 220 thousand last week.
[The comedy known as GDPNOW gets updated on Thursday and sits at 1.2% dropping from 1.3% so it’s right in the middle of the eCONomists so depending on what they want to do with the last few weeks of the year with the 3rd highest on record corporate share buyback level on qtrly earnings suspension/blackout is about anyones guess. Remember they LOVE doing fuggery while people are occupied and look no further then what date they announced the Federal Reserve creation-Dec 24th 1913 and approved and signed the day before]
Federal Reserve History
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/centennial/about.htm
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Friday, December 15th -
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, down from 9.1.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November
The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.1%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/12/schedule-for-week-of-december-10-2023.html