TyB
Fed’s John Williams says the central bank isn't 'really talking about rate cuts right now'
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[This is the dynamic presently: Powell at last (prior to this last Weds) FOMC said “no way we aren’t even discussing this (rate cuts) yet” but in his response to a question he admitted (in FED speak on Weds) that they are and have been at the terminal rate and instead of 2% as acceptable inflation they are going to use 3% which is still fantasyland and by trotting out NYFED chair Williams (who doesn’t say much at all and ALL the operations done out of NYFED see link below and click on ‘Market Policy and Implementation’ ) to pour cold water on all that from Weds as the market is pricing in rate cuts (that have ALREADY HABBENED in bond markets-30y went from just under 8% to 6.62% or thereabouts, 10y to just under 5% to
3.922% and finally on a short term bill6m 5.6 to 5.3% in a very short timethis is across the entire curve) so delivery bois FOMC are trying to manage expectations as you could still have them pause Prime/FFR for an extended time thus creating a bifurcation between bond market and wut the FOMC actually sets…those 2 see cap 4 FRED history of FFR rates. So as previously mentioned this proves the prediction several months ago-when many were still believing the FOMC and US Treasury PR releases that the system is not going into the meat of election season with elevated rates and also a shit ton of CRE refis needing to be done]
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said Friday rate cuts are not a topic of discussion at the moment for the central bank.
"We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "We're very focused on the question in front of us, which as chair Powell said… is, have we gotten monetary policy to sufficiently restrictive stance in order to ensure the inflation comes back down to 2%? That's the question in front of us." The Dow Jones Industrial average shot to a record and the 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.3% this week as traders took the Fed's Wednesday forecast for three rate cuts next year as a sign the central bank was changing its tough stance and would start cutting rates sooner-than-expected next year.
Traders are betting that the central bank would cut rates deeper than three times, according to fed funds futures. Futures markets also indicate that the Fed could start cutting rates as soon as March.
Williams is reining in some of that enthusiasm a bit it appears.
"I just think it's just premature to be even thinking about that," Williams said, when asked about futures pricing for a rate cut in March.
Williams said that the Fed will remain data dependent, and if the trend of easing inflation were to reverse, it's ready to tighten policy again.
"It is looking like we are at or near that in terms of sufficiently restrictive, but things can change," Williams said. "One thing we've learned even over the past year is that the data can move and in surprising ways, we need to be ready to move to tighten the policy further, if the progress of inflation were to stall or reverse." The Fed projected that its favorite inflation gauge — the core personal consumption expenditures price index — will fall to 2.4% in 2024, and further decline to 2.2% by 2025 and finally reach its 2% target in 2026. The gauge rose 3.5% in October on a year-over-year basis.
"We're definitely seeing slowing in inflation. Monetary policy is working as intended," Williams said. "We just got to make sure that …. inflation is coming back to 2% on a sustained basis."[sowee but Powell put that to bed on Weds and several other FED heads have hinted at accepting 3% in their speeches over last few months]
Moar
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-s-john-williams-says-the-central-bank-isnt-really-talking-about-rate-cuts-right-now/ar-AA1lym3x
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds
https://www.newyorkfed.org/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd06m
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
Keep up in mind that there is still ongoing US Debt auctions and the continued sales by the Foreign owners of our debt which is wut caused the yield spike in Sept/Oct and a declining usage of the Reverse Repo Facility by the also declining # of counterparties in that facility-that peaked in May of this year at around 110 or so and now sits in the 80 to 90 range
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
And last thing to consider: just because the market is sending the signal that they want Prime/FFR rates cut via the purchase of the CME rate contracts does NOT mean they will get it-it’s just showing what those contracts buyers want-want and result are 2 different things entirely
GTMO001 departed Dothan,AL Regional Airport after and overnight and arriving as UNKN from Ft. Lauderdale depart
Not a normal destination for these and arriving as UNKN as well (could be a history issue in ADS-B too)
VV107 US Navy ‘brass’ west from JBA
FORGE78 G5 arrived at Tallahassee Intl from JBA depart
It affects your body’s circuitry just as much as anything else
People are certainly affected by these just as they are with the moon cycles
It’s just not very widely accepted or known
95% of what is out there is new age BS.
Up to you to sift through that as it’s obvious you haven’t
Good luck
Kek
>>20078640 lb
SAM615 C40B arrived at Dhabi UAE from Tel Aviv departure
Sounds like you just volunteered
Have fun
>you’ll find out why that isn’t very easy going back that far w/o acquiring a data license ($)
Japan Inc. sees record capital spending in fiscal 2023, led by EV, AI
Capital investment by big Japanese companies is expected to hit a record 31.9 trillion yen ($213 billion) in fiscal 2023 ending next March, shattering the record for the second year running, a Nikkei survey finds.
Spending on plant and equipment is forecast to rise 17.3% from the previous year overall, driven by the demand for electric vehicle (EV) production[not gonna end well that part for sure]and data centers as artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread.
The semiannual survey collected revised plans for domestic and overseas capital investment as of the end of October from 874 listed companies and others with capital of 100 million yen or more. Year-on-year growth in spending is likely to be the fastest since fiscal 2000. The Japanese currency's depreciation in the foreign exchange market has pushed up the value of overseas capital investment in yen terms-see cap 2 for the YE strength-
Manufacturing industries increased planned investment 21.0% and nonmanufacturing industries 11.5%.
By industry, only four sectors – paper and pulp, real estate, construction, and mining foresee less capital spending than the previous year. Automakers are beefing up production capacity for EVs and car batteries, both domestically and abroad.
Toyota Motor increased its investment 5.9% to 1.97 trillion yen from its initial plan for the current fiscal year, which was already a record. Honda also revised its plan upward by 10%, mainly due to the weaker yen, We have no intention of slowing down," said Honda Executive Vice President Shinji Aoyama.
The proliferation of AI, which many predict will lift productivity, has increased the volume of data and demand for data centers. Telecom provider KDDI, which acquired a local data center from a Canadian company in June, lifted its investment budget 22.7% from the previous fiscal year to 770 billion yen. Rival NTT, with 2 trillion yen in spending, is likely to be the single largest corporate investor. About half its total spending will go to growth areas such as data centers.
Moar
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-Inc.-sees-record-capital-spending-in-fiscal-2023-led-by-EV-AI
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency
>doesn’t know Blackstone from Blackrock