TyB
planeFag: Gulf, Med and Europe
Gulf
By nao you’ve seen this
BP pauses Red Sea shipments as another commercial vessel is attacked near Yemen
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/red-sea-ships-striles-1.7062343
Starting in Kuwait
Algeria AF 7TVPG G5 departed Kuwait City (Algeria is Africa’s largest exporter of Natty Gas and Morocco wants a slice of that and have been all over Europe but mostly France)
Spanish AF AME4561 Falcon 900 arrived at same with AME4549 310 on ground ready to leave Kuwait City
Med
Russian AF RFF8259 Ilyushin 62 heading to Syria-Latakia AB (Russian Navy Base at Tartus finished in 1971 and why anyone who thought VP was gonna give that up when all that shit fired up just ignorant
Naval base in Syria cements Russia’s Mediterranean foothold
https://apnews.com/article/95362ddbdbab4383945900a928296dde
French AF CTM1039 A339 left Muffaq Al Salti AB ES
Algeria AF 7TVPS G4 west from Beirut
Italian AF IAM1470 AEW&C G550 (IsRAel has same) over southern Italy
Europe
German AF GAF667 Global 5000 ES from Berlin and likely to Tel Aviv
NATO41 E3 AWACS done w/roundies east of Prague
RCH614 C17 departed Rzsesow Airport after delivery
RAF RRR7218 Rivet Joint was over eastern Poland and done nao
Polish AF PLF105 G5 back to Warsaw from Hamburg Germany
Slovenia AF LSV101 Falcon 2000 to Riga, Latvia from Ljubljana depart-possibly PM or President
Paki AF PFF2 G4 east from a Kuwait City
Not seeing anything in Red Sea but not surprised either
No it’s not however Nippon Steel is better than the Cardiff-Cliffs offer (half over Nippon’s) and CC and it’s not like they, Nippon, is new to owning American Steel production as they’ve had a joint venture with Pittsburgh Steel since the mid 80s that later became a fully owned subsidiary
planeFag: CONUS activity
SAM595 G5 departed Miami Intl EN from overnight
GTMO844 inbound to Ft. Lauderdale from….
BACKY91 KC-135 on the refueling track just north of Cuba out of Seymour Johnson AFB
SAM686 G5 west from JBA and joined by 09-0686 and 09-0655 MC-12 Libertys also west from NAS Oceania
SPAR629 Learjet 35 WS from JBA
58-0117 KC-135 tanker over Potato and schedule has nuffin but the daily briefing about an hour ago and nuffin else- lid called @ 6am EST
https://factba.se/biden/calendar
Because most hiring practices start by how much of a gubmint subsidy they can get from hiring someone.
MktFag Op. Ed. Yen reverses downtrend as policy rates of BOJ and Fed set to move closer
[ ] additional comments
[Putting this in because it speaks directly to not having enough people with experience as anyone that has ‘been around the block’ a few times would have had no trouble seeing that muh Yen was going to strengthen into the YE (said EXACTLY that in mid Oct) when the Fin MSM was screaming bloody murder and I did say in early July that it could get to 155 quickly but changed muh tune when it became clear-if you wanted to see it-the rates being spiked was Foreign US debt ownership sales-Japan, China, Luxembourg, Italy etc and it would quickly slow down or they just devalue what they continue to hold-sometimes it “pays” to have some experience in the room as none of these 20-30 year olds have any clue about patterns and they think it’s the ‘end of the world’ if markets drop 5% as they have never seen capitulation, in effect, rates have already been cut by Bond markets WW because the FOMC only controls Prime and Fed Funds Rates and the markets are already “asking” for cuts in those 2 starting in March and even a 7% probability of 50bp then too but muh “expurts” still sticking to later in year (Kek!) or not at all which is double kek because it’s ALREADY BEEN DONE-30y mortgage from roughly 8% to mid 6% is but one example-the spreads on the 2 and 10y notes and also short term bills are dropping as the year closes out-from Late Sept early Oct spike
U.S. 2Yr/10Yr Spread -4.55% cap 5
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/10Y2YS
For Japanese exporters, the foreign exchange market looks totally different from a month ago. During the July-September earnings announcements last month, the yen had dropped to 151.80 to the dollar, near a 33-year low. The weak yen has been bad for inflation but a boon for Japanese exports, [but horrible for import pricing and only the drop in oil prices has saved them on that front as they rely almost exclusively on imported oil] as it has increased the value of overseas revenue when converted to yen, giving exporters room to breathe. “Exporters looked relaxed. They saw little need to hedge currency risks," said Yujiro Goto, chief foreign exchange strategist at Nomura. On Thursday, however, the dollar-yen rate stood at 140.96, up more than 10 yen from a month ago. This is a level many exporters including Toyota, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy used in their most recent earnings guidance. A rise beyond that could lead to a downward revision in their guidance. [This is just an exercise in making it look good and makes a massive assumption that the BoJ is done selling our debt and buying own (JGBs) so for example on the first trading day of 2019 the BoJ had an emergency meeting and intervened and it was around 110-112 and they eventually got it to about 100 but that was it-see cap 3 for long term Yen chart (yellow line) to see the 2019 intervention and the end of that bottomed in January 2021 around 100.xx and never looked back]. The sudden shift in the FX mood comes as central bank policy rates of Japan, the U.S. and Europe are poised to finally move closer after diverging over the last two years. "The Bank of Japan's monetary policy had been out of line with the rest of the world during COVID and the war in Ukraine," noted Koji Fukaya, a fellow at Tokyo-based risk consultancy Market Risk Advisory. The yen's declining trend ~~is~~ has revers~~ing~~ Ed [FIFY and it has been used to issue guidance on that reversal so the smart ones will be dumping those stocks when/if it reverses and weakens-they will not wait for ‘revised guidance’-see below [ ]however it’s a black hole at the BoJ as they own about 60% of all JGBs and moar of the equity markets and it will matter when (((they))) decide it does] , “Fukaya said, as the central banks in the U.S. and Europe are going to adjust their policies toward more normal levels while the BOJ is about to end some of its most extreme easing measures. Elevated levels of speculative bets against the yen, as seen in the Commitments of Traders data in the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, also point to the risk of a sharp yen rally sparked by short-covering, he said. [When the Yen weakens the companies who base forward guidance on muh Yen @ 140.xx vs US$ are gonna have to adjust and if they don’t muh stonks gonna sell off and it will be “well we don’t know why” or some other reason because rarely do you see the real reason given by fin TeeVee]
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[Why muh Yen? It’s a $20T trade-see Yen carry trade and below link from DB report-that is used to shove dollars into every corner of the world over the last 25 years-that will eventually have gravity applied to it but only after they shove an ass-ton of US$ into China (imo) as they’ve done it several times ] On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an end to its most aggressive monetary tightening in four decades, pushing down U.S. 10-year bond yields to 3.91% on Thursday. In October, they stood above 5%, a 16-year high. The dollar-yen rate is closely tied to the 10-year yield gap between the U.S. and Japan. On Thursday, the European Central Bank kept its policy on hold for two straight meetings, with the market betting that the bank is done with its most aggressive tightening in history. Meanwhile in Japan, expectations are mounting for the BOJ to start normalizing its ultra-easy monetary policy and embark on its first hike since February 2007 [NEVER. GONNA. HABBEN with the caveat that you should never say never when dealing with a printing press (digital) and a black hole (BoJ)]
Moar
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Yen-reverses-downtrend-as-policy-rates-of-BOJ-and-Fed-set-to-move-closer
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
From Nov 14
Japan's govt debt is a $20 trln 'carry trade' - Deutsche Bank
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/DEUTSCHE-BANK-AG-56358396/news/Japan-s-govt-debt-is-a-20-trln-carry-trade-Deutsche-Bank-45345736/
This carry trade is what is responsible for why roughly 75% of the printed US currency (in $100 bills) resides outside the US-look it up if you have doubts. There are other reasons and it’s not all that for 100% of it but it is the bulk of the reason. But don’t use Wikipedia as you should be smarter than that. That really started during and towards end of the Japanese “lost decade”-see below-and then continued until it got put on steroids when the Fukushima “Accident” occurred. The Japanese were told that it was their turn to ramp up the printing in late 2010 and they did not. They were only ever asked once moar and the outcome was what habbened on 03/11/11. That produced trillions of yen in “stimulus”.
The Argument that Fukushima Was Sabotaged
https://www.henrymakow.com/theargumentfukushimasabotage.html
Japan's 3/11/11 Mega 9.1 Earthquake: Another Illuminati Production?
https://educate-yourself.org/cn/japanquakemanufactured12mar11.shtml
Lost Decade in Japan: History and Causes
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lost-decade.asp
Currency Carry Trade: Definition as Trading Strategy and Example
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencycarrytrade.asp
And finally a paper from the Federal Reserve in July 2007 just in front of the 2008 manufactured “crisis” and very telling of what was going to be used to prop up the system
What Can the Data Tell Us about Carry Trades in Japanese Yen?
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/what-can-the-data-tell-us-about-carry-trades-in-japanese-yen.htm
Thank you for your time
Goolsberg like Kashkari placed based on connections so it’s no wonder he doesn’t get it
No
They all are part of the same “team” one sez one thing one day another one counters it the next
All designed to keep everyone “confused”
Look at title of og post lit sez Op Ed
>>20094170, >>20094177 MktFag Op. Ed. Yen reverses downtrend as policy rates of BOJ and Fed set to move closer
Couldn’t pay me to get on any airplane at this point but realize many don’t have a choice
TSA=Gestapo
Why waste time as you say the same shit day in and out just pointing out how triggered you are.
It never changes
I’d tell you to FO but you still wouldn’t stop
Total waste of space
This just an op to counter coming production cuts-demand destruction has killed oil pricing so let’s create another situation to juice oil higher
>>20094170, >>20094177 MktFag Op. Ed. Yen reverses downtrend as policy rates of BOJ and Fed set to move closer
Please add-has plenty of sauce supporting opinion and covers several related incidents how they relate to current problems facing BoJ.
Way moar than the statements in there already