dChan - Q Origins Project Archive

>>20097752 pb

mktFag: BOJ Governor Ueda Sees Need to Look at More Price Data

[muh Yen got to 144.90/US$ and backed off so some shorts took profit (smart as 145 a psychological level) but don’t think (((they))) aren’t back at werk on this as it is just a YE short term momo trade as it will likely end closer to 140/US$ and the 10y benchmark JGB sits at 0.57-cap 2-it’s lowest yield and highest value since August so mission accomplished but largely due to deflation and the ubiquitous liquidity trap]

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Tuesday that he wants to look at more price data before making any decision on whether to tighten monetary policy. “Price increases are becoming a little more certain, but we want to see some more data,” Ueda told a press conference after BOJ policymakers Tuesday voted to stick to the central bank’s negative interest rate policy. “We want to see more information to determine whether a virtuous cycle of wages and prices will be realized,” Ueda said, adding that it is “not an appropriate idea to change monetary policy hastily.”

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/business/economy/20231219-156651/

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-bond-yield

The Yen/$ move was instant and hasn’t gotten much worse but just under 144 now-cap3 and likely not going any further (yen value down) please see the above link about holding policy steady that shows at the bottom about just how large the Yen carry trade is (and it’s much larger imo because this is the fuel for US$ creation-remember the BIS announced a year ago the $65T off the books FOREX trade they had “no idea about” cuz they can’t track it…ProTip:they can…just won’t…link below and why it needs to be watched as if this gets out of control-not likely soon-it will have impacts you couldn’t possibly imagine like literally the END) but they want to look “at moar data”

Kek. Good luck!!!

As noted in above link all members (9) voted for no change so as stated many times-lost track tbh-ever since rate hike cycle started across the central banking system WWthe BoJ is never going to hike rates-they’ll just continue to fill the bottomless pit and that will matter when (((they))) want it to and not a moment sooner.

Corporate Guidances issued as Yen sat at 140.xx but it was just a window dressing exercise for YE as it will likely end the year right near 140 so they can be “right”. The Corps will just wait and adjust towards end of Q hoping no one noticed in the ensuing time frame if it loses value as this is a massive assumption that no moar US Debt sales will occur in Q1 and if they are wrong they’ll just do what is described below cuz this goes on WW and in every company-another fun fact is that Norway’s Sovereign wealth Fund holds roughly 1% of ALL issued stock in the entire world according to the last data release and is the worlds largest by far in global equity ownership China’s 2 are pretty close in valuation (both are just over $1t but do not hold the vast amount of WW stock that Norway’s does)

The end of the Qtr “adjustment(s)”

This is a common tactic to issue great guidance, let it sit until a few weeks from Q end and then ‘adjust’ thus “beating” lowered expectations. Not all do it but enough do to make it quite hilarious as they know what the Q results will be about 40-45 days or sooner into it…it all depends on what biz sector you are in and how much the outside variables affect each companies performance but the mgmt are paid big bucks to anticipate all of this so no excuses.

Apple used to be the undisputed KING of just the opposite-lowballing forward guidance and then sometimes even making a pre-blackout upward revision thus cleaning out anyone dumb enough to short it and not recognize this pattern.

From Dec ‘22

Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing

FX swaps, forwards and currency swaps create forward dollar payment obligations that do not appear on balance sheets and are missing in standard debt statistics. Non-banks outside the United States owe as much as $25 trillion in such missing debt, up from $17 trillion in 2016. Non-US banks owe upwards of $35 trillion. Much of this debt is very short-term and the resulting rollover needs make for dollar funding squeezes. Policy responses to such squeezes include central bank swap lines that are set in a fog, with little information about the geographic distribution of the missing debt.

Moar

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm

>>20094170, >>20094177 pb MktFag Op. Ed. Yen reverses downtrend as policy rates of BOJ and Fed set to move closer