No One Has Really Grokked How Big The Suez/Houthi Gambit Is
by Tom Luongo
#+begin_quote
We’ve had a lot of foreshadowing of the Suez Canal being a major hotspot for conflict over the past couple of years. Think back to the Evergreen beaching itself in the canal in 2021. Everyone is just now waking up to the idea that global shipping is at risk here.
This Twitter thread (by a self-professed moron who, IMO, seems to have a good grasp on things) is representative of the level of analysis being put forth by people still in love with the US Navy’s ability to force project around the world. He’s just waking up to the importance of this situation but he hasn’t picked up on the nuance of it from the other side of the battlefield.
In order to set the stage properly I’m going to have to go back in time. So, let’s start with October 7th and the attack on Israel by Hamas. In the October issue of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter I laid out why I thought everyone had an incentive to allow and/or instigate that event.
The October Setup
So, here’s the backdrop for Davos and the US/UK:
Now, if you are a cornered old money globalist oligarch with your finger on the pulse of these events…
Then, you are seeing:
The project in Ukraine hanging by a thread as European and American support wanes at every level just below the unelected leadership.
The ECB failing to hold the line on rising bond yields to stave off a banking crisis.
US Yield Curve blowing out on the long end, giving Yellen no good options for funding the current budget deficit or for rolling over existing debt, much of which is due in 2024.
German state elections deeply embarrass the ruling coalition in Hesse and Bavaria as well as the CDU/CSU who lost significant votes to Alternative for Germany (AfD) in CSU stronghold Bavaria.
Polish elections forcing the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) out of power despite tough words about Ukrainian refugees and shaking Germany down for WWII reparations.
The BRICS adding five nations which give them control over major trade routes into and out of Europe, including, but not limited to, the Suez Canal.
The US geopolitical position in the Middle East degrading as Saudi Arabia sides with Russia and Iran on every issue.
Iran becoming an integral partner in the burgeoning Asian integration on trade and policy.
Would you not conclude that time had run out, and upsetting the game board in some major way was your best, if not only, move?
Now, from the other side we have the following circumstances:
If this [revealing the depravity of Neocon hatred of Arabs] was Iran’s intended goal, then mission accomplished.
It also implies that they are ready and willing to open up the entire can of worms across the Middle East in order to bring the Arab tribes together to further their regional ambitions. And there won’t be a T.E. Lawrence coming to bring them back into the British fold this time.
Because Israel’s response here will likely preclude any of them being able to stand aside and let Israel just wipe out the civilians in Gaza, even if secretly they despise Hamas as much as the Israelis do.
So, if you’re Iran and you see:
Weak US leadership in Biden and a vacant speaker
Support for Ukraine failing rapidly.
The Arab oil states standing firm with Russia athwart US/EU sanctions.
China investing in Syria’s reconstruction.
Turkey openly attacking US-backed Kurdish SDF forces over Syrian oil fields.
A cynical landgrab by Azerbaijan to break up the International North-South transport corridor in Armenia
Russia returning to the European gas market via Turkey
Increased influence regionally having re-opened diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia.
Wouldn’t you do something to upset the status quo and force a choice on the US but also the rest of the Arab world?
…
But this gambit by the BRICS is clearly in their best interest and tells you all you need to know about who MbS and the rest of the royal family now back in all things geopolitical. Iranian-backed terrorists are openly harassing shipping around the Arabian peninsula and the Saudis “urge restraint?”
The US announces a 10-nation coalition against Yemen and the Saudis and UAE (Both BRICS members now) say no?
I don’t see how the US avoids the Thucydides Trap here. While I don’t think for a moment the US Navy can’t deal with the Houthis I also don’t think anyone is prepared for them sinking any US ships either.
The smart move is resolving this without it getting to that point, i.e. engaging in real negotiations. With these idiots in the White House?
Checkmate Putin.
#+end_quote
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-no-one-has-really-grokked-how-big-suezhouthi-gambit
Brilliant. I finally see the game being played.