Atomic threat: Here’s how Trump is to blame for the world being on the brink of nuclear war
Washington has upped the ante with a proposed new missile deployment in Germany, and a move from the ex-president made it possible
Friday marks five years since the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed by the Soviet Union and the US in 1987. For a long time, the consequences of this step were overshadowed by other tensions in the international arena: public attention was focused on different topics and it seemed that ‘post-INF’ issues interested only experts in the sphere itself.
However, the fifth anniversary is being celebrated in a truly “grand manner.” The US offered a “gift” to Russia by announcing plans to begin “episodic deployments” of its ground-launched missiles in Germany in 2026. Russia didn’t slack on the matter: President Vladimir Putin responded that if these plans are implemented, Moscow will lift the unilateral moratorium on the deployment of its own intermediate-range missiles. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not rule out that these could be nuclear. Such an “exchange of pleasantries” signifies a new “missile crisis” that may surpass those of the 1970s and ‘80s that eventually led to the signing of the original treaty.
At that time, the deployment of new nuclear missiles in Europe led to the deterioration of Soviet-US relations to their lowest point since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. The issue was solved radically – by signing the INF Treaty the US and the USSR prohibited themselves from having any (either nuclear or non-nuclear) ground-launched missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. From a military-strategic point of view, this put the US in a more advantageous position. Firstly, the USSR eliminated twice as many rockets – 1,846 compared to 846 by the US. Secondly, air- and sea-launched missiles of similar range – the United States’ key instrument of power projection – were not included in the agreement.
The Soviet leadership consented to such conditions in large part due to political reasons – back then the Kremlin believed that Soviet-US relations would eventually reach a new level and weapons would no longer play a key role in ensuring security. However, gradually this mood changed and Moscow increasingly criticized the 1987 deal. Putin eventually called the treaty “unilateral disarmament”.
The new Russian Federation also expressed concern over American compliance. Nevertheless, Moscow’s rhetoric did not exceed certain limits: the issue of terminating the agreement was never raised at the highest level. The storm clouds started to gather in the mid-2010s, when the US raised concerns that, according to its information, Russia violated the treaty and tested a ground-launched cruise missile with a range of over 500 km. Subsequently it was revealed that the missile in question was the 9M729, which is part of the Iskander system.
Donald Trump’s presidential administration named Russia’s development of the 9M729 as the official reason for launching the process of withdrawal from the INF Treaty in February 2019. However, in reality, the reasoning was more complicated. Almost simultaneously with the emergence of complaints about Russia’s compliance with the INF Treaty, a major discussion broke out in the US about the development of China’s capabilities. Unlike Moscow and Washington, Beijing wasn’t bound by the INF Treaty and therefore could develop ground-based missiles without breaching any international prohibitions. By the mid-2010s, these weapons formed the backbone of China’s missile arsenal; in 2017 the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, estimated that “approximately 95%” of those missiles would violate the INF if China were a signatory.
As a result, the Americans started to view Beijing’s capabilities as a key issue that affected the balance of power in Asia-Pacific. Chinese ground-launched DF-21D and DF-26 missiles earned the notable nicknames “carrier killer” and “Guam killer” in the US. Even when the INF was still in force, many American experts speculated about the need to withdraw from it or at least to revise its terms so that the US could develop and deploy its own ground-based missile systems in the region as a counterbalance to China.
https://www.rt.com/news/602057-us-trump-nuclear-war/