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ENMOD’s Article II outlines which environmental modification technology is covered by the convention. Here again a wide net is cast. It includes ‘any technique for changing – through the deliberate manipulation of natural processes – the dynamics, composition or structure of the earth, including its biota, lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere, or of outer space’. This would cover all weather- and climate-modifying technology currently in use.
The most ambiguous part of the convention – which needs updating and clarification – is the matter of intent. The use of this technology for military or hostile ends is strictly prohibited and violations can be referred to the UN Security Council. ‘Peaceful purposes’ are, however, allowed.
But what happens when it is used with purportedly peaceful intent yet causes harm to a neighbouring country?
This question is all the more difficult as communities and countries look to weather modification and geoengineering to help protect themselves from the worst effects of global warming. Hostile and peaceful intended uses of this technology can become muddled.
The technology falls, generally, into three categories with different objectives: fertilizing the ocean to increase its uptake of carbon; brightening clouds or ice to reflect more sunlight back into space and thus reduce global or local warming; or the most common technology – as seen in agricultural communities or ski resorts – of injecting aerosols into the stratosphere to increase rainfall or snow, or to modify a storm.
Such operations are already under way in more than 50 countries, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Mexico’s Air Force, for example, has begun cloud-seeding in the past 12 months. The Arctic Ice Project, an NGO, intends to deploy small hollow glass beads, composed of silicon dioxide, across parts of the Arctic Sea’s ice and in the Arctic Ocean to increase reflectivity and slow global warming. Australian universities are piloting a salt spray over the Great Barrier Reef to reflect more of the sun’s heat in an attempt to conserve the reef.
Scientists are plagued, however, by the complexities of understanding the technology’s direct impact and its knock-on effects. In the case of cloud brightening – a type of solar radiation management – there is uncertainty over how it might adversely affect ecological systems, agriculture and global warming.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that cloud brightening risks depleting the planet’s ozone layer and affecting regional weather patterns, while doing nothing to reduce ocean acidification. Moreover, for cloud brightening to effectively reduce global warming, it would need to be sustained through wars, economic crashes and technological glitches. Any prolonged interruption would see global warming ricochet up.
In the case of cloud-seeding, there is uncertainty about adverse impacts on neighbouring countries, some of which are already coping with food or water security – concerns that will grow for many as the changing climate alters the distribution, predictability and amount of precipitation.
Three aspects of the technology’s use have particular security implications. First, the threat that its deployment in one area could affect another. Second, the difficulty in distinguishing harmful effects on neighbouring countries from insignificant ones. Last, the ease with which the technology’s use could be claimed as peaceful yet be covertly applied to harm an adversary.