Why Are Democrats Losing Black Voters?

Oct. 22, 2024

By Jason Riley.1/2

In his introduction to “A Pathway to American Renewal,” a new collection of essays by scholars and grassroots activists on how to revitalize low-income communities, the volume’s editor, Robert Woodson Sr., describes himself as “a practitioner—a radical pragmatist—who has spent the last fifty years of my life walking among, and learning from, some of the most resilient people you can imagine.”

Given that Mr. Woodson has been coordinating development programs in poor black neighborhoods since the 1960s, I was curious to get his take on why Kamala Harris hasn’t matched the level of support among blacks that other Democratic presidential candidates have received. CBS News reports that in 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump among black voters 90% to 9%, and this year polls have Ms. Harris at a 78% to 15% advantage. In the seven most competitive states about 1 in 4 black men say they “definitely” or “probably” will vote for Mr. Trump, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Woodson mused that the track record ofDemocrats might finally be catching up with them. “Democrats have been running these big cities for 60 years, and black people see the results==,” he said.

Nor does he believe the problem is unique to Ms. Harris. If Mr. Biden hadn’t dropped out of the race, “he’d be having similar problems with black voters, because they remember the unemployment and low inflation” under Mr. Trump.

The data suggest that Mr. Woodson is on to something. Before the global pandemic shut down the economy in 2020, inflation-adjusted weekly earnings under Mr. Trump grew 12.5% for all black workers and 12.7% for black men, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The corresponding figures for white workers—7.9% and 8.2%—demonstrate that, before Covid, black workers were making absolute gains and gaining on their white counterparts. Under the Biden-Harris administration, inflation-adjusted earnings to date are up less than 1% among blacks and down 1.5% among whites.

When I asked Mr. Woodson about Ms. Harris’s new black outreach efforts, which include providing forgivable loans to black entrepreneurs and “creating opportunities for Black Americans to succeed” at dealing marijuana in their communities,he doubted such initiatives would make much difference.

“Whenever they try to target a group, whether it’s blacks or women, they propose things that help the more advantaged members of those groups. Only a tiny percentage of blacks are entrepreneurs.”

Government subsidies for the cannabis industry, he said, are a priority for black elites, who tend not to live in drug-infested neighborhoods with high violent-crime rates.

Ms. Harris’s problem with black voters, Mr. Woodson explained, is part of a broader problem the Democratic Party faces with working-class voters generally.“The black men I talk to are upset at the migrants in places like Chicago and Boston and California getting free cellphones and housing,” he said. Yet Ms. Harris has been banging away at Mr. Trump’s comportment, his criminal convictions and Jan. 6. Even her focus on abortion rights plays better with college-educated women than with their blue-collar counterparts, who are more concerned about inflation, illegal immigration and crime…

https://archive.is/K5zOl

>>21816790

2/2

Barack Obama has suggested that the problem isn’t Ms. Harris’s record as vice president or her message on the stump butrather black men who refuse to support a black woman. Mr. Woodson wasn’t buying that and pointed out that in recent yearsany number of black women have been elected mayor in big cities with large black populations—including Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Washington. Angela Alsobrooks, a black Democrat running for U.S. Senate in Maryland, has a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent, the popular former Gov. Larry Hogan.

=Democrats are panicking because they know that even a small dip in black support could cost them heavily in consequential states such as Georgia, where blacks are more than 30% of the population, and North Carolina, where they are around 20%. Even in swing states with smaller black populations—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin—Democrats still need big margins and turnout in urban areas to prevail next month. Hillary Clinton didn’t get them in 2016, which is one reason she lost.

Ironically, part of Ms. Harris’s problem may be the man going to bat for her. Mr. Obama’s two presidential terms are a not-so-distant memory and demonstrated, among other things, that addressing the challenges that many black Americans still face requires more than simply putting a black person in the Oval Office and hoping for the best.Black Americans, like Americans in general, fared better economically under Mr. Trump than they did under Mr. Obama. There’s no guarantee that Mr. Trump will repeat that performance in a second term, but it’s hard to quibble with the growing number of black voters who want to see him try.

https://archive.is/K5zOl

Democrats Are Growing More Anxious Over Deadlocked Race - WSJ.1/2Oct. 23, 2024

WASHINGTON—Kamala Harris calls herself the underdog against Donald Trump. Making that argument is an old ploy to motivate voters, but with two weeks until Election Day the vice president’stop advisers and allies are worrying it might be true.

Harris’s struggle to nail down support from key voting blocs in the Democratic coalition has left her team unsettled, according to interviews with aides and advisers. She enjoys strong support with women,but she has a clear problem with men, including both Black men and white working-class men. She also has failed to shore up support among Michigan’s Arab-Americans, who have been frustrated with the Biden administration’s handling of the widening conflict in the Middle East.

“People were feeling better three weeks ago,” said one Democrat close to the campaign, who added thatit was always going to be a close race and that Democrats are given to 11th hour panic.

Some Democrats say the memories of the 2016 campaign—when a confident Hillary Clinton lost to Trump—loom over this year’s race, and activists are determined to avoid the same outcome.

Harris campaign advisers say they are clear-eyed about the challenges. During a recent call with staff, campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said: “This is not going to be a race where one day we wake up and the sun shines and the clouds part and we’ve won by five points. It’s just not that kind of race. It is tight, and we are going to just keep driving.”

O’Malley Dillon told staff that internal data shows Harris is winning and would stay ahead, but “it is by the skin of our teeth, and it’s going to take all of us together.”

Polling shows a deadlocked race, but Harris advisers say they have an edge over Trump by virtue of campaign infrastructure that will turn out her vote—including door-knocking, data collection and millions of dollars in targeted advertising. The campaign also has sought to fortify the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which remain her most logical pathway to the White House, with repeated trips to those states. Public polling has shown the race essentially tied in the three states, with survey averages shifting a point or two—within the polls’ margins of error—to Trump’s benefit since Oct. 1.

They also aretrying to capitalize on Harris’s advantage with women(kek), hoping to drive up turnout among white women who are concerned about abortion rights. The vice president plans to bring the issue to the forefront with a rally Friday in Texas, where nearly all abortions are banned after six weeks of pregnancy. They are still making a play for men, releasing policy plans aimed at Black and Latino men and going on podcasts and shows geared at men.

On Monday, Harris did events in the three Great Lakes states alongside former Rep. Liz Cheney (R., Wyo.), aiming to connect with women and undecided voters who have raised concerns about abortion rights and the erosion of democratic principles. The Harris camp is hoping to peel off more Republicans and independents tohelp offset declining support among other voting blocs, including younger men.

“We’re absolutely aware that Michigan is close, but we’re very confident in our infrastructure and our ability to get this over the finish line,” said Rep. Haley Stevens (D., Mich.).

https://archive.is/zbBNw