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—After five days of data, theClark early vote and mail percentageshave been remarkably consistent. TheRepubs have been in the high 40s or at 50 percent in in-person and the Dems at highs 20s and 30s.In mail, the Dems have been in the mid to high 40s and the Rs in the mid to high 20s. About 58 percent of the turnout in Clark is from mail and 42 percent from in-person voting. Let’s see if these trends – and they are trends after five days of data – hold in the second week.

Frankly, as I have been telling you, I don’t think the old models make sense with this unprecedented turnout pattern. I will show you (again) the 2020 results:

I am not sure what that will be this cycle with Republicans having an epiphany that early and mail ballots are good, not a cause for suspicion unless they need them to be. So theRepubs may be doing what has served the Dems so well: Banking votes early to almost guarantee victory.

GOP operative Jeremy Hughes sifted this from the data – his numbers on voters refer to general elections voted in:

…the problem for Democrats comes up when we look at the low propensity voters.

GOP 2 of 4 voters - 25.3% Turnout

DEM 2 of 4 voters - 20.9% Turnout

Republicans have a nearly 4.5% turnout advantage among voters who had missed two of the last four general elections.

GOP 1 of 4 voters - 23.6% Turnout

DEM 1 of 4 voters - 18.6% Turnout

Amongst the infrequent 1 of 4 voters,Republicans open up their largest turnout advantage of nearly 5%.

Then, when you look at new voters and voters who have never voted in a general election, Republicans continue to dominate.

GOP 0 of 4 voters - 17.8% Turnout

DEM 0 of 4 voters - 13.9% Turnout

Now, after all of those numbers what does this mean?

The Republican early vote lead will continue to grow.The GOP just has more active and interested voters and is pulling people off the couch who normally don't vote.

This also means that Republicans will undoubtedly have a turnout advantage in this election, which, given the voter registration numbers, basically guarantees that more Republicans will vote than Democrats.

Hughes probably is correct about that, but the real question if he is right is this:How many more Republicans? If it’s tens of thousands, even a big win among indies for Dems almost surely won't be enough.

I said earlier that 2022, even though a non-presidential year and with lower turnout, may be more instructive. TheDem vote came in much later and Election Day losses were offset by mail ballots dropped at election locations. Hello, Culinary Union and Democratically aligned nonprofits.

At least that’s what the Dems are hoping will be the case. My point is that we don’t know yet if that is what’s happening or will happen.I think there are still about a million votes to be cast.

So far about 57 percent of the votes have been cast by mail and 43 percent in person. The Rs are winning because they have a 25-point lead in in-person and the Dems only have a 12 percent lead in mail. As I said, if the Dems can’t change those margins and/or that mix, they are in big, big trouble. And they have to hope for maximum GOP cannibalization of Election Day voters vs what Hughes talked about: low-propensity GOP voters turning out.

Week One of the two weeks of early voting ends tomorrow.

In 2022, the Dems had a 21,000-ballot lead after Week One. In 2020, the Dems had about a 50,000-ballot leadafter one week.

Instead, they are going to be well behind. The volume of mail ballots is down, too, which is either a concern or an opportunity for the Dems. About 450,000 mail ballots were cast in Clark four years ago – only about a third of that number have been counted so far, and the total could get to half a million this year. Or not. Need to keep an eye on those numbers.

The Dems almost always do better in the second week, and they need to in 2024, not to build an insurmountable lead, as they have in the past, but to stay in the game. I don’t know of any smart Dem who thinks this is going to be anything but a slog and a 50-50 race possibly decided by a few thousand votes.

What they don’t say is this: That may be a best-case for them at this point, to be that close.

More later…

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024

(This will activate Dem cheating for sure)

>>21826238 Jeffrey Goldberg, Atlantic's Editor-in-Chief who compared Trump to Hitler, was an IDF prison guard at a facility known for torture and sex abusePN

Question: once IDF always IDF? Is Bibi and others trying to prevent Trump from being elected again?

Video attached

https://x.com/5149jamesli/status/1849629688643321985

1:27

Behind the Curtain: Dems fear they're blowing it

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A growing number of top Democrats tell us privately they feel Vice President Harris will lose — even though polls show a coin-toss finish 11 days from now.

Why it matters: Democrats admit they tend to be hand-wringing, bed-wetting, doomsdayers. But what's striking is how our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal broad concern that little she does, says — or tries — seems to move the needle.

This is afterDemocrats spent $1 billion — nearly twice as much as Republicans — over the past three months to polish her image and soil former President Trump's. Trump and allied committees raised about half Harris' total, $92 million, from Oct. 1 to 16, the N.Y. Times reports this morning (gift link).

• And this is after Trump's cringy 40-minute onstage sway to '80s music, his threats to target "enemies within," calling his opponent "retarded" and "sh*t" — and having his former White House chief of staff say he's fascist and talked admiringly of Hitler. (A new Harris ad uses audio from the New York Times interview with the former aide, retired U.S. Marine Gen. John Kelly).

Between the lines: We're not saying Harris is losing or will lose. An earlier "Behind the Curtain" column spelled out why this is toss-up America.

• Our reporting simply reflects scores of conversations with people close to Harris and intimately involved in swing-state races, including officials inside her campaign and top Biden administration officials.

• Harris' rhetorical journey has mirrored Democratic moods — from "joy" over the summer to darkness this week, when she painted Trump as a dangerous fascist.

What we're hearing: In a troubling sign for the campaign, top Democrats are already starting to point fingers at who'd be more responsible for a Harris loss — President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. "Going down?" a top Democratic official texted.

• Democrats fear she has made too many different cases against Trump, and still hasn't fully revealed herself to voters, who crave to know more.

• "She is who she is," one longtime Democratic strategist said. "Let's hope it's enough."

Democrats say Harrisfaces a maddening double standard, as Trump threatens to jail adversaries and strip broadcast licenses. "He gets to be lawless. She has to be flawless," CNN senior political commentator Van Jones said this week.

• Harris' closing ads focus on Trump as the three uns: "unhinged, unstable and unchecked." (Watch the ad, "Total Power.")

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/election-democrats-trump-harris-lose

Kek the always objective Axios loses it again.

>>21827286

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The other side: Trump's closing ad campaign has been tightly focused on two clips: an ad focused on transgender rights ("Kamala's agenda is they/them, not you"), and Harris' own words on "The View" that "not a thing" comes to mind about how she'd differ from Biden. (She has since said she'd bring a "new generation of leadership.")

• Stunning stat: The Trump campaign alone has spent more than $30 million on trans-focused ads (including one in Spanish) in the past 36 days, according to AdImpact data.

Top Republicans, in private conversations, seem shockingly confident, given the consistent 50-50 polls. They talk in granular detail about White House jobs, and discuss policy playbooks for '25.

• Reflecting the bravado, Dan Scavino, Trump's longtime close aide and ghost tweeter, refers to the 45th president as "45–47," and wrote last week on Trump's Truth Social Platform: "I have ZERO interest in working with anyone who is a former colleague that disappeared upon our departure from the White House—and was no where to be found when DJT announced his candidacy on 11/15/22, or was silent throughout 2023. STOP CALLING. STOP EMAILING. STOP TEXTING——YOU'RE NOT HEARING BACK FROM ME."

The big picture:A common gripe among high-level Dems is that Harris does a nice job explaining why people shouldn't vote for Trump — but struggles to crisply explain why they should vote for her. In other words, she's a strong prosecutor — but struggles as a public defender.

• Democratic insiders loved a line Harris used in the CNN town hall on Wednesday night, and sharpened Thursday night outside Atlanta in Clarkston, Georgia: "Just imagine the Oval Office in three months. … It's either Donald Trump in there stewing — stewing! — over his enemies list, or me, working for you, checking off my to-do list." The campaign even socialized a 15-point "Kamala Harris' to-do list."

• "Better late than never," a top Democrat told us. Another leading Democrat said: "It's good. We're not dead yet."

Zoom in:Democrats once felt very good about Nevada, a state Biden won in 2020. But early voting has them panicked. Jon Ralston, the top Nevada election expert, writes that the surge in early rural Republican voting — a "rural tsunami" — is ominous for Harris: "There is no good news in these numbers for Dems."

•Pennsylvania continues to worry Harris, despite Biden winning there in 2020. Among the seven swing states, it's the one campaign insiders think she absolutely has to win, with signs of GOP momentum in the state's Senate race.

Reality check: Harris inherited a very tough hand. Establishing and executing a campaign for president starting just 3½ months before an election is unprecedented in modern politics.

• Besides Biden being unpopular, inflation has been the incumbent killer globally. Polls and election results in Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, Japan and South Korea all show this anti-incumbent tide.

The bottom line: We can't ignore the reality that no matter what Harris says or does, this country has never elected a woman president and only once elected a Black president. It's never elected a Black woman. Toss in broad concerns about immigration and inflation, and it's a lot to overcome, her advisers say.

https://www.axios.com/2024/10/25/election-democrats-trump-harris-lose

>>21827295

This was in Axios article, did anons see this on TS?A number of those are on Fox now.

Reflecting the bravado, Dan Scavino, Trump's longtime close aide and ghost tweeter, refers to the 45th president as "45–47," and wrote last week on Trump's Truth Social Platform: "I have ZERO interest in working with anyone who is a former colleague that disappeared upon our departure from the White House—and was no where to be found when DJT announced his candidacy on 11/15/22, or was silent throughout 2023.

STOP CALLING. STOP EMAILING. STOP TEXTING——YOU'RE NOT HEARING BACK FROM ME."