Michael Pruser
@MichaelPruser
It's becoming more clear with each passing day that Republicans' greatest strength in turnout resides in the Sun Belt so far.
In both Arizona and Nevada, Democrats are pulling more voters from their reliable pool (3/3 general election voters) while Republicans are getting more voters from everywhere else.
As time passes and turnout rises, Democrats are left with an increasing share of new and low-frequency available voters, while Republicans still have a sizable portion of their 3/3 waiting in the wings.
In Clark County, it's about as drastic as one could draw it; Democrats cannot pull away from Republicans in the early vote because while Democrats have a 75k registration advantage in low and no-frequency voters, the raw turnout in these buckets is nearly the same between the parties.
Both are burning through the same rate of the 3/3 voters, but eventually,Democrats will need to find a way to get their new voters to vote.
Otherwise, their registration advantage in Clark can never be realized.
https://x.com/MichaelPruser/status/1849507949523161376