NV The Early Voting Blog
Updated, 9:30 PM, 10/24/241/2
NV is important to Trump!
Good evening, blog mates.
No SOS in-person vote numbers tonight, I'm told. Will post in early AM. About 26K mail ballots posted, took 2K off GOP lead. But that will almost surely be offset by early voting numbers posted tomorrow.
I have some real news:The early returns are not good for Democratic Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford. Both were considered near-locks because of weak opponents and national GOP not investing. But both could be in tighter races than everyone thought. Maybe.
Give us 5 minutes and we’ll give you today’s Nevada news you need to know
(For those wondering, Rep, Dina Titus is well ahead.)
Data courtesy of the great NevaData site from Paul Selberg:
In both races, the Rs have more ballots – 900 in CD3 and 250 in CD4. This could change as the turnout becomes more substantial, and the indies go for the incumbents.But Lee is trailing in a district Trump almost won in 2020, and Horsford has enough rural counties that his vote may be skewed against him now.
It may mean something; it may mean nothing.More tomorrow. Good night.
Updated, 4 PM, 10/24/24
Good afternoon, blog mates.
With great blogging comes great responsibility, but I am not responsible for what partisans will use to spin the numbers I am providing. Republicans trying to create the narrative that Trump has Nevada clinched are either overconfident or trying to create the predicate for a challenge if Harris ekes it out here. Democrats who say the numbers don’t look as bad as they look are relying on four consecutive presidential cycles of doing what it takes to win, despite an early turnout pattern that looks ominous.
But: Data is the data, context is the context, projections are projections.
So what do the numbers say and what don’t they say:
Distilled –they don’t say it’s over but they also don’t say Democrats should brush off the GOP lead that has never before existed in presidential yearsduring early voting.
Bear with me while I give you the latest numbers and then show why 2022 might actually be a better data point now than 2020.
After 16,000 or so Washoe ballots were added this AM:
425,000 have voted, or 21 percent, and the GOP has a16,000-voter margin in ballots, or 4 percent.
The Washoe mail dump bumped up that county’s share of thevote to 18.5 percent, almost 2 points over its registration; Clark is now down 5 points relative to its 73 percent of the registration numbers – I wouldn’t think that can last, but if it does, Harris loses and that Senate race could be very close;the rurals are still punching above their weight at 13 percent of the vote, or 3 points above registration.
Republicans have a 3 point turnout edge statewide, 4.5 in Clarkaccounting for most of that because the Dems have minuscule turnout advantages by percentage in Washoe and the rurals.
The exact numbers for those interested;
8e850379-screenshot-2024-10-24-at-2.52.42%E2%80%AFpm-1200x347.png
In a very favorable scenario for Harris, if Dems are winninging indies by 55-45 and both parties are holding 90 percent of their bases, here’s what happens:
HARRIS 202,915 47.7%
TRUMP 206,381 48.5%
REST 16,030 3.8%
TOTAL 425,327
D/R Difference -3,466
So it’s very simple: If the turnout pattern remains this way, Harris will lose Nevada.
But what are the chances it does? Therein lies the rub.
Let me show you some data points:
–16 percent of the GOP in-person vote so far is from those who voted on Election Day in 2022. That’s because GOP leaders are encouraging folks to vote early.Only 5 percent of Dem voters were Election Day voters two years ago. The net difference is about14,000 votes, or pretty close to the GOP firewall right now.
–Because of the indie explosion, the partisan ballot lead is less predictive. (This is not a good development for us oracles, by the way.)The Dems firmly believe they are leading among indies who have already voted, and those skew older. Voters over the age of 60 are two-thirds of the indie vote so far;voters under the age of 30 are only 9 percent. (In 2020, voters under 30 were a fifth of indie voters. It could be higher this time with AVR (automatic voter reg).Voters of color are just under athird of the indie vote so far,already reaching the percentage from 2020.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024