The early voting blog, 2024, NV
Updated, 6:15 AM, 10/30/24
Good morning, blog mates.
Some Clark mail came in overnight, cut the GOP statewide lead to 40,500, or 5.2 points.
Overall Clark mail was nearly 26,000 ballots, which again lagged beyond the 30,000 who voted in the South in person.The Dems only gained 1,600 in Clark Countyon Tuesday when both methods are combined, so the GOP lead overall remains robust thanks to a strong Washoe showing andespecially the rurals.
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790,000 people have voted. About 60 percent of the vote is in.
In 2020, the Republicans won early in-person in Clark by 2,500 to 4,000 ballots every day of the second week except for the last when the Dems surged. The mail countered those and that was also in the bygone days of big Clark Dem firewalls (it's only 6,200).
Three days of early voting left, six days until the election.
More later…
Updated, 10 PM, 10/29/24
Late evening update, blog mates.
Bottom line: Still not enough Clark mail ballots to offset GOP in-person votes and rural tidal wave.
GOP statewide lead now: 42,800, or 5.6 percent
Clark GOP in-person win was lowest so far, only 9 points. But only 9,000 Clark mail ballots counted, which helped Dems gain 2,200, more than offset by Clark in-person. There are more Clark in-person votes (274,000) than Clark mail ballots (260,000). It seems impossible that will last. And those rural margins!
Pretty soon the ghost of Harry Reid is going to start haunting post offices…
I'll do a more detailed post in the AM, but we are closing in on 60 percent of the vote being in (774,000) – and maybe already there. If the Dems are not doing well with the 200,000 indies who have voted (and they keep gaining in vote share)and the 200,000 more likley to vote, and if the low volume of Clark ballots does not change in the next week (it seemingly has to because it is only 57 percent of the 2020 overall total), the Dems will lose Nevada for the first time in 20 years.
Is it time for Dems to panic? No, no. Still time.
I'll tell you when.
Good night. Gimme your money.
Updated, 5:30 PM, 10/29/24
10/29/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Before tonight’s numbers get posted, here’s where we are at the end of 10 days and what to look for the rest of the week
I know smart operatives on both sides who still expect the presidential here to be close. From what I know, both campaigns think so, too, even if Team Trump is a bit more bullish because of the early returns. We know the GOP is frontloading its votes, cannibalizing Election Day to an extent and causing this unicorn turnout pattern.
The outcome remains all about how the indies split and if Clark mail comes in big. Perhaps Louis DeJoy is hoarding Clark mail ballots in his basement?
But, seriously:
At least half of the vote is in and the GOP has a 5.3 percent lead in ballots.The non-major-party cohort is now close to 26 percent of the vote, or 185,000 ballots. The Rs lead in both urban and rural Nevada:
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024