DataRepublican (small r)
@DataRepublican
Guide to Data-Watching Tomorrow
The MSM will do their usual psy-ops of claiming that Election Day is rainbows and sunshine for Democrats, but I am giving you a guideline as to the concrete numbers to watch.
The consensus of EV X is that Trump has roughly tied the early voting in 6 out of 7 battleground states - Pennsylvania being the exception. This is not driven by overperformance in Republican voting; rather, this is driven by a steep decline in Democratic turnout.
And the 270-Electoral Vote question becomes: "Will these missing Democrats show up on Election Day?"
This makes Election Day data watching almost absurdly simple - if Republicans have a decently red Election Day, they should win! And the more red Election Day is, the better the odds Republicans have. On the other hand, if Democrats have a blue Election Day, they win - full stop.
There are three known states that will be giving out turnout updates.
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Florida will post continuous live updates on turnout.
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Georgia will post hourly updates in theory.
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Nevada will post turnout data at 10 AM and 2 PM.
Of all these three states, Florida will be the one to watch when polls open at 7 AM ET. That's less than seven hours away as of writing! And you can watch it right at https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ . Toggle the "Election Day votes only" option.
While Florida is not a competitive state,Florida will give valuable insights as to whether Election Day portends to red voter behavior or not.
My instincts say that a comfortable win would be in sight would be if the Advantage Trump - when the "Election Day votes only" option is toggled - is around 20% (screenshot from 2020 attached). On the other hand, if it's closer to 15%, a victory might be possible but iffy. If it is below the current posted advantage of 9.45%, then Republicans are in trouble.
So to summarize:
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Election Day Advantage Trump ~20%: Amazing
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Election Day Advantage Trump ~15%: Close
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Election Day Advantage Trump 10% or less: Trouble
This metric will be volatile for the first hour or so but we should start having a good idea of where it's heading at 8 AM ET. So very early!
It should go without saying that this is a very broad guideline - projecting Florida's turnout performance onto other states is of limited use. There will be people who leak numbers, and I will be re-posting whatever useful turnout numbers I can find on X.
For Pennsylvania, the turnout numbers are key. Republicans must strongly outperform Democrats there. Scott Presler and others will likely be leaking some data, and I will interpret it to the best I can.
As for watching returns, be aware that some states count early votes first which are expected to trend blue (so-called "Blue Mirage" states).
Others are expected to count - the Red Mirage states. Florida will be the quickest to count votes, and I believe it will first count mail votes from the bluer parts of the state. I am looking to match the approximate percentage gaps (albeit somewhat larger given blue NPAs) that the map says for each county - example screenshot attached.
12:26 pm Nov. 5, 2024
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/1853670206423376307