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Shortly before Kellogg’s nomination was announced, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said it was “inconceivable” that Zelensky would sign a deal that surrenders territory — as Kellogg’s effectively would. Kuleba argued that the U.S. cutting off weapons supplies for Ukraine could therefore lead to a collapse of the front. However, Strana.ua noted that thisimplies Ukrainian leaders would prefer a collapse of the front to a ceasefirealong the front lines, which is unlikely to be the case — and that it’s thus “far from certain” that Zelensky would refuse to enter negotiations even if it requires territorial concessions.
Ukrainian political scientist Serhiy Taran, meanwhile, referred to the selection ofKellogg for the envoy position as “one of the best personnel decisions Trump has made in recent times.” At the same time, Taran called the proposal to delay Ukraine’s NATO membership the “worst part” of Kellogg’s plan, predicting that Ukraine will face “extremely difficult diplomatic negotiations with all parties and intensifying pressure from Russia” in the near future.
He concluded, however, that the likelihood of“Trump betraying Ukraine” has now decreased significantly.(these assholes worked with and still work with democrats in 2020, to destroy Trump, they said it shortly before the election, they were backing Kamala and democrats, and they didn’t want him to win, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were involved in election rigging in 2024, and they expect loyalty from Trump?)
Ukrainian journalist and AFU soldier Oleksii Yarmolenko wrote on X that he’s doubtful about the plan:“[Kellogg’s] tool is blackmail with military aid, on both sides. But whether it will work — I don’t believe it yet.” (I’m surprised Kellogg came up with the solution, anyone that have watched and studied this war, Ukraine and Russia would never agree to that)
Analyst Yuriy Bohdanov echoed this sentiment, saying thatUkrainewill not agree to a ceasefire without security guarantees and that itcould continue fighting with support from Europe even if the U.S. stopped providing weapons. As for Russia, Bohdanov argued they Moscow will not agree to a freeze along the current front lines unless they “genuinely fear refusing.”
Therefore, he said, in order for the plan to work, the Trump administration must put “serious pressure” on Russia, offering Ukraine either increased defensive capabilities or “tough security guarantees” under which allies would automatically provide military assistance if Russia violates the agreement.
If the plan does work, he said, the result will be a scenario like the one between North and South Korea: “a demarcation of the sides without an official peace agreement, and no resolution.”
Journalist Viktor Shlynchak, head of the Institute of World Policy think tank, wrote on Facebook that the plan “includes points that we won’t like” as well as “some that are quite acceptable.” He predicted that the U.S. “will likely follow this scenario,” but asks: “Will this be enough for Russia, considering the Kremlin has become emboldened and is trying to paralyze the West with fear, hoping to pressure it into agreeing to Ukraine’s capitulation? Or will the U.S. need to use additional leverage to make Putin believe that such a ‘deal’ might also be a good option for him?”
The military analyst who uses the pseudonym Tatarigami expressed doubt that it will be possible to freeze the war at all. “For Ukraine, freezing the front line without defense agreements — such as NATO membership or a scenario similar to the Korean one (involving the presence of Western troops and a military intervention clause akin to NATO’s Article 5) — would be effectively suicidal,” he wrote. At the same time, he noted that Kellogg “has supported Ukraine and visited it personally” andcalled him “a much better candidate than those who spread disinformation about biolabs or ‘Krushchev’s mistake.’”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/11/28/his-tool-is-blackmail
(they are all delusional, they are not going to get their way with Trump, and their demands are not going make Trump change his mind. Kiev saying they'd rather have more men die in the war, and collapse at the front, than to negotiate, is evil and insane. If NATO countries invite Ukraine in, America will be out permanently.)