What If There Were No Illegal Workers?
"Now, let’s play out the thought experiment: what happens there were no illegal workers? You’ve long heard politicians on both sides of the aisle and others insist it’s just not possible for the American economy to function without them.
Would the economy collapse? Would your morning coffee cost $20?
Not quite.
Many analysts agree the nation wouldn’t implode—it would adjust, as markets always do.
Without a steady supply of cheap, exploitable labor, some employers would face a choice: pay more to attract legal workers (and cut profits or increase prices), automate, or close.
In industries like agriculture, we’d likely see a mix. For example, in the absence of illegal farmworkers, growers might invest in mechanized harvesting equipment (already happening in places like California’s wine country). Some might offer competitive wages to attract American workers or legal immigrants.
In 2011, when Georgia cracked down on undocumented labor, some farmers struggled to find workers, but they adapted—some raised wages, others shifted to less labor-intensive crops.
In hospitality, we might pay more for a hotel room if cleaning staff earned legal wages. Some restaurants might charge an extra buck for your burger if kitchen workers aren’t being paid under the table. Construction costs could rise, making new homes pricier. A 2018 study from the Center for Immigration Studies estimated that a significant reduction in low-skilled immigrant labor could lead to wage increases of 2-4% for native-born workers in those sectors.
So some prices might creep up, but so would purchasing power for the working-class Americans who would be earning more. Higher wages could draw more Americans back into these industries. Right now, many avoid jobs because they don’t believe pay justifies the effort. If employers had to compete for legal workers, they’d have to offer better wages and conditions.
This isn’t speculation—it’s already happened in tight labor markets. During the Covid-19 pandemic, when unemployment was low and labor was scarce, fast-food chains like McDonald’s and Wendy’s raised wages and offered signing bonuses to attract workers."
https://sharylattkisson.substack.com/p/illegal-workers-and-higher-wages