All cause deaths on California 1999-2025

source of data:

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CHSI/Pages/Statistical-Reports.aspx

After downloading the data I extracted the records for all causes for the total population. I then calculated the 12 month moving average.

Two things that I notice:

1) Whatever the cause may have been there was a definite increase in mortality for the 2020-2021 period which in my mind rules out the "it was just the flu" theory. Something unusual happened in that time period.

2) There is actually an increasing trend in the data from about 2010 onward. Deaths have now returned to that trend line. It would require digging deeper into the data to find out where that increasing trend is coming from, but it is interesting that it is so clear and started so early.

Sharing this in case someone finds it of interest. Note that 2024-2025 deaths are "provisional", but I don't think that would change the all cause figures much..