GM smartdust dude
Fulford is a flake
Europe moves to snap back Iran sanctions
Sam Chambers August 29, 2025
Britain, France and Germany have triggered a 30-day process to reimpose United Nations sanctions on Iran, a move that threatens to shake up tanker markets.
The so-called snapback mechanism, launched on Thursday, would reinstate wide-ranging sanctions suspended under the 2015 nuclear accord, including restrictions on oil exports, financial flows, and maritime trade.
Iran’s crude exports—already moving largely in the shadows via a sprawling ghost fleet of elderly tankers—would once again be designated as fully illicit under international law. Insurers, financiers and port authorities would face renewed pressure to sever ties with Iranian-linked tonnage.
Western officials said the measure comes in response to Tehran’s acceleration of uranium enrichment activities.
The European move follows Donald Trump’s so-called maximum pressure campaign he has waged against Iran since his return to power in the US in January with a slew of sanctions aimed at Tehran.
https://splash247.com/europe-moves-to-snap-back-iran-sanctions/
That part about shaking up the tanker markets?
Yeah. Venezuelan crude is really heavy stuff, they need Iranian stuff to thin their stuff out or it really isn't usable. Iran gets hit, Venezuela feels pain too.
From Aug 27th:
Oil surplus drives tanker demand
August has merited champagne for both crude and product tanker owners.
…Underlying the political noise, the fundamental truth of the global oil market is that it is oversupplied by as much as 2m barrels per day. This has kept oil prices below $70 per barrel. China and other states have been taking advantage of low prices to build their strategic reserves. Refiners have been taking advantage of low prices to increase run rates at the higher margins that cheaper input prices offer. So even as global oil demand grows only slightly, global oil markets are being flooded with surplus products.
In the crude oil tanker markets, this has translated into extra spot market activity and higher earnings. China has added demand for two extra VLCCs per week through its SPR purchases. This has pushed up the time charter equivalent earnings on West Africa to China VLCC earnings by 57% in the 30 days to August 22, to $49,608, with $50,000 levels surely to be crossed in the coming days. VLCC TCE earnings on the Middle East to China voyage rose 72% over the same dates to $51,501, while gross income from the US to China voyage worked out at $40,894 on August 22, up 13% over 30 days.
Suezmax earnings have performed even better as the capacity utilisation of the smaller fleet ramps up on demand for South American grades of oil. On the voyage from West Africa to Northwest Europe, rates rose 63% over 30 days to August 22, reaching to a champagne-opening $50,655 per day. On the transatlantic voyage from Guyana to the Netherlands, earnings rose 72% to a meaty $48,458 while cross-Med earnings of $48,689 per day, up 17% over 30 days to August 22, will have owners smiling
More:
https://splash247.com/oil-surplus-drives-tanker-demand/
Supply & Demand, and the Supply may go from overstocked to shortage rather fast. If the smaller fleets stop sailing the bigguns can charge even more. Fewer arrivals means less chance for overtime at the ports and no fun if it's contract negotiation time with the unions. Less ships mean fewer crews that need provisioned so the companies that deal with that slow down. September is almost here as somebody in the UK and the EU better start thinking about heating oil.
Trying not to write too much but the ripple effects can get mighty interesting
Pensacola: cops are used to handling unruly sailors and won't play around
Tallahassee: FA in Desantis' backyard, FO hard
Jacksonville" Bigger Navy town than P'cola. Jax cops not gonna play and mess with sailors things get messy, mess with Marines it's ER visit. Sailor and/or Marine veterans serious curb stomp will be applied and the cops will wait to arrest bolshevik before fatality occurs, but only just in time.
Gainesville: college town, may get support until messing with the frat boys
Palatka: Bikers and rednecks and iirc Labor Day is the Turkey Shoot but definately have Affairs in Order before pissing off the Mama Bears, chances of ending up at a hog farm or buried by a road crew maximum. Klan is there too so uppity POC not tolerated
The Villages: Mess with the golf carts or the booze and the geezers will fling bottles and dogpile
Bradenton: Rednecks with stoners, not as many bikers as Palatka but more readily available excavation equipment with bonus large chipper-shredders in trailers
Miami: Stay out of Little Havana and live, those Marielitos will grab a machete and use effectively with a quickness
West Palm Beach: How to find out rich people can afford private armies and can introduce commies to toothy fishies after sundown
Some others I see are Militia Country and a few where the cops grew up with these guys, might even be In-Laws, the "missing seven years before legally declared dead" comes into it
Then there's Middleburg. Closer to J'ville but Palatka is quite reachable. "Kill a Commie for Mommie" is not just a T-shirt there. Rednecks and some bikers and some vets and road crews and chipper shredders and some other nasty surprises readily available
Was daily average of 22, must be running out