OPINION

INGERSOLL: Does Anyone Know What ‘Imminent’ Means?.1/2.-3

Geoffrey Ingersoll. 3/20/26

WHAT DO THESE WORDS MEAN?

A lot has been said recently about the word “imminent.”

Webster’s (which was reliable in most cases until woke got to it) defines it as “ready to take place” or “happening soon.”

By the first definition, you’re in imminent danger every day on your commute. Things being simply ready to happen — having potential —doesn’tstrike me asparticularly “imminent.” Thesecond definitionseems much more accurate.Its immediacy is evident. “Happening soon” is already in motion. It’s coming, and the when is just an undefined blob, as irritating to the mind as the answer your mom gives you when you ask for the 97th time “WHEN DO WE GET THERE?”

“Soon.”

>At a private lunch recently with various right-wing communicators, one of themasked me bluntly, “What do you make of Joe Kent’s resignation letter?”

I started by saying it seemed like par for the course when it comes to high-profile firings and resignations in the Trump era.People, like Kent, have a sudden change of heart. They go from ruthless supportto self-righteous rebellion. As a result,Trump Inc. goes full murder hornet on the rebel’s credibility.

We saw thisexact scenariowith John Bolton.

Like Bolton, the Trump camp is now saying Kent had been quarantined for “months.” He was never trustworthy. Loyal soldiers online are now dissecting Kent’s history in support of their God King.

It all prompts the question:Well, then why’d you hire him in the first place?And that’s one Trump simply bulldozes right past.

(On Bolton, he told me flatly, “I liked John because bad people were terrified of him.”)

But that’s not what she meant by the question.

She stopped me with, “But do you think it’s true?”

“What specifically?”

“That there was ‘no imminent threat’ from Iran?”

Ahhh, I should have known, the debate du jour. And as the only combat veteran at the table, also the only reporter with national security history, I should have known they’d ask.

At risk of sounding like former President Bill Clinton under deposition, I answered, “Well, that depends entirely on how you define ‘imminent.’”

My boxing coach has said it multiple times.

“There’s no such thing as a sucker punch.”

Of course, there is, Dear Reader, but that’s not exactly what he means.In Lenel’s universe, there are only winners and losers. There are people who are knocked out, on the pavement, at the whims of their aggressors (and trust me, that doesn’t end well),and there are people who are still conscious. The winners.

“Whoever started this ‘never hit first’ garbage has either never been in a fight or was someone’s mom,” he says. “Obviouslyyou hit first. If you can’t run away. If you know violence is going to happen.You always hit first.”

I’m not going to give you an analysis of the war, its wisdom or folly, its potential third and fourth order effects. I’m just here to talk dollars and cents.

And dollars to donuts, Iran was gearing up. China was helping.

Here is a screencap from a U.S.-China Economicand Security Commissionreport. They are a review committee independent of the federal government that reports to Congress.

Security Cooperation

• China was a major supplier of conventional weapons to Iran in the 1980s but largely stopped transfers in 2015 after UN Security Council Resolution 2231 increased international scrutiny of such transfers. 9 In recent years, security cooperationhas shifted toward dual-use technology salesand transfers of defense-related technologies, including those relevant to missile and drone development.[10] Chinese components-including sensors, voltage converters, and semiconductors-have been found in Iranian drones, both the drones used by its regional proxies and those exported to Russia for use in Ukraine.("]Continued….

https://dailycaller.com/2026/03/20/imminent-iran-war-trump-operation-epic-fury-israel-joe-kent/

“.2/3.”

• In the days leading up to the U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026, several anonymously sourced reportsindicated China was engaged in direct arms sales to Iran–offensive drones and a nearly finalized deal to sell anti-ship cruise missiles, though the two sides had not agreed on a delivery date.[12] If confirmed, these reports could indicate ashift toward a less restrained Chinese approachto providing Iran with kinetic military capabilities. Reports indicate that China has allowed sales of a component of rocket fuel to Iran. During the week of March 2, 2026, two state-owned Iranian vessels departed China's Gaolan Port to Iran andare believed to be transporting sodium perchlorate, a key precursor used in solid rocket fuel for missiles. [13] This follows a similar incident in January 2025, when two different Iranian ships docked in China and were loaded with approximately 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate. [14].

• In 2021,China gave Iran full military access to its BeiDou satellite navigation system. " It is not clear, however, the extent to which Iran's military resources use BeiDou or U.S.-controlled GPS. 16] While plausible that Iran is currently relying on BeiDou for its drone and missile attacks throughout the Middle East, and Al Jazeera has cited experts who believe this to be the case, open-source evidence does not yet allow for a definitive assessment.[17]

• At the same time,China has avoided formal defense commitments to Iran, underscoring the asymmetric nature of the relationship. Tehran seeks deeper strategic alignment, while Beijing prioritizes balancing relations with other Middle Eastern partners and limiting security entanglements.

• ==China's direct military

engagements with Iran occur primarily through trilateral or multilateral activities. Purely bilateral defense engagements between China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) and Iran occur infrequently, with the last bilateral meeting occurring in 2022.[18]Instead, the PLA has participated in regular trilateral and multilateral military activities involving Iran, including an annual joint naval exercise between China, Iran, and Russia first held in 2019[19] While reporting on February 17, 2026, indicated that the 2026 iteration of the exercise would be held in the Strait of Hormuz==, it appears China did not join Iran and Russia this year.[20]

•China and Iran have used the SCO and BRICS to deepen military cooperation. Iran hosted China and other members for an SCO military exercise in December 2025. 21In January 2026, Iran intended to participate in a China-led joint naval exercise with BRICS Plus countries, including Russia, South Africa, the UAE, and other observers.

I’ve read a handful of independent reports since news broke on missile and drone tech heading to Iran.The rateat which the relationship could blossominto an unsustainable threat to global commerce in the region was what I would certainly call “imminent.”

(You can say we caused this by striking Iran last year, but I think amore astute word than caused would be “accelerated.” China’s ambitions need fuel. China needs Iran to sell it discounted fuel. China has missiles. So on.) Continued…

https://dailycaller.com/2026/03/20/imminent-iran-war-trump-operation-epic-fury-israel-joe-kent/

>>24408721

.3/3.

Throw in thecost asymmetrybetween offense and defense —it’s at least 20x more expensive to shoot missiles and drones down than it is to build them– and you start to have a serious problem.

Looking at all this, thethinking goes: In a matter of months from now, left unperturbed, Iran could effectively hold the entire region hostage.

We also know Israel was going to strike first. Frankly, who can blame them?

I know Trump walked it back. He was right to muddy the water there, politically speaking. I also know that Secretary of State MarcoRubio. had no reason to bullshitwhen he said Washington knew Israel was going to strike, and that Iran was going to hit the U.S. as a result.

Does that qualify for “imminent?”

In my book,yes.

What does “America First” actually mean?

To some on the anti-war right,it means we should literally close all our bases in the Middle East and leave. I myself took that position a long time ago, having just seen two different wars and the destruction they had wrought.They were costly, not just in human cost, but also the most mind-boggling transfer of wealth I had ever seen up close.

(People say the housing crisis was bigger, to which I saymaybe.)

Supporters of Trump’s war on Iran have pointed to his own statements going back decades. Of course he called his shot in the 80s, they say. This is Donald Trump.

On the other hand,Trump, at base, is a real estate man. There is finite land in the world. As people say, “they’re not making more of it.”

Anyone who’s ever gone house shopping knows a square foot stays square, but the cost of it can fluctuate wildly depending on how prime the location is.

What’s a square foot cost in the Strait of Hormuz, you think?

Should America controlthe flow of energy there? Is it in the interest of the American citizenry, and American posterity, to seize absolute control of that real estate?

Or is it America First to cede it to China and Iran?

Just like the word “imminent,” ol Billy Boy,it depends on your definition of America First.

Trump has declared flatly in the past that he is the one who will ultimately decide what his slogan means.

Right or wrong, he’s decided.

https://dailycaller.com/2026/03/20/imminent-iran-war-trump-operation-epic-fury-israel-joe-kent/

(I saw the Barron’s birthday wish and saw “Ingersoll’s book on Baron Trump”. The I went to find a good article to post. I found this article in daily caller byIngersoll, and wonder if he is related to the author of Barron’s book. KEK=)

‘Not Exactly A Glass Half-Full Kinda Guy’: Scott Jennings Verbally Brawls With CNN Panelist Over Iran3/20/26

Salem Radio Network host Scott Jennings clashed with Washington Post intelligence analyst Josh Rogin over the progress of Operation Epic Fury on Thursday,questioning if Rogin could see a glass as “half-full.”

President Donald Trump announcedOperation Epic Fury in a video posted on Truth Social Feb. 28 after attempts to negotiate a cessation of Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclearweapons.

Rogan cited climbing gas prices due to the surge in the price of oil, prompting Jennings to note that prices were higher during the Biden administration.

“There’s risk in everything. Every decision a President makes has risk and none are riskier than the decision to commit troops to the theater of war. Not just because of what can happen in the theater, but because of what can happen at home,” Jennings said. “Gas looks like it’s $3.73 a gallon. It got somewhat higher than that during the Biden administration. We haven’t gotten back to those numbers yet.”

“But for candidates, going out and talking to people, they’re in a little bit different situation than the commander-in-chief who has to look at a national security situation. They have intelligence that nobody else has and they have to make decisions knowing full well the risks that come with it,” Jennings continued.

“He made the call, the polling by the way, among the Republican Party and among the MAGA-friendly voters is quite clear.They trust the President on this. How long it lasts and when we get out, we’ll make a difference on that. Right now-”

“CNN NewsNight” hostAbby Phillip interrupted, claiming that Trump’s supporters only made up three-tenths of the population. (Closer to 50%, she lies everytime she opens her mouth, and is dumb which makes it worse.)

“This is the most unpopular war in American history for good reason. The longer it goes on, the worse those numbers are going to look. There is no instance in history of prolonged war benefiting any nation,” Rogin claimed, with Jennings responding, “How do you know it’s going to be prolonged?”

“Because that’s the story of pretty much every war ever,” Rogin maintained, with Jennings firing back with,“How long did the Venezuela war last?”

Rogin then denied that the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro was a “war.”Trump awarded the Medal of Honor to Army Chief Warrant Officer Five Eric Slover during his Feb. 24 State of the Union address for heroism despite being wounded by Venezuelan fire during the operation.

“We haven’t declared war. You’re saying a three-week situation is the most unpopular thing we’ve ever done,” Jennings told Roganafter they jousted over the Vietnam War and the Afghanistan War.

“I’m saying that Americans understand what’s clear, which is that this is getting worse every day and expanding every day. The war is expanding. More countries are getting attacked. The energy crisis is growing. The economic crisis is growing. Inflation is growing.

Extremism and attacks on the homeland are growing. Everything is getting worse every day. And the war is expanding, despite President Trump saying-” Rogin said beforeJennings cut him off with, “You’re not exactly a glass-half-full kind of guy, are you?”

Polling released shortly after Operation Epic Fury began shows that only 27% of Americans supported hitting Iran. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has also seen his polling numbers decline, according to CNN data reporter Harry Enten.

https://dailycaller.com/2026/03/20/scott-jennings-josh-rogin-spar-over-iran-war-progress/

‘Not Exactly A Glass Half-Full Kinda Guy’: Scott Jennings Clashes With CNN Pundit Over Iran

2:15

The Daily Caller

https://rumble.com/embed/v7573oy/?pub=4

>>24407604 GOP Marsha Blackburn SCALPS Pow Wow Elizabeth Warren Over The Save Act!

The only reason some republicans won’t vote for Save America Act, is because they also cheat using non citizens to vote. Plus the senate is a club of “you catch my back, I’ll scratch your back.Both sides like to cheat, they basically are almost all criminals.

It’s not Good to save our country, it’s how long they can lie and cheat in the Senate and House, so they can stay in office, by election cheating and to make millions from donors. They both do it, but Democrats are happy to show and tell how they are treasonous traitors, they admit it constantly. Thune and McConnell before him proved this regularly by blocking Trump in his first and second term.The Republicans in the Senate will not allow votes on Trump appointees even to this day. There are 200 appointees waiting to even have a hearing.

If the Founding Fathers heard this, all of the traitors would be hung in the Town Square!

Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian

@manniefabian

Another video shows the moment a fragment from an Iranian ballistic missile struck Jerusalem's Old City this afternoon.

12:06 PM · Mar 20, 2026

·395.8K Views

(Bibi thought conning the US into this war would allow them to blow up all of Iran, and then they could target other Middle East countries they want to steal; it’s backfired on the innocents in Israel.

Do you ever notice the news is always doing polls on America being in “this matter” almost daily,but there’s never a poll released how popular Israel is being in this war, showing their leaders won’t allow or release polls!

https://x.com/manniefabian/status/2035025267031224477?s=20

Iraq declares force majeure on foreign oilfields. 1/2

March 21, 2026

Iraq has declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies after military operations disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and halted most of the country's crude exports, three energy officials told Reuters.

Basra oil production was cut by approximately 70%, from 3.3 million barrels per day to around 900,000 barrels per day.

Force majeure declared

Iraq's Oil Ministry sent a letter dated March 17, seen by Reuters, stating that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely affected by "unprecedented military activity," causing storage capacity to reach its limits.

"The international partners were unable to nominate tankers to lift crude, preventing exports despite the state oil company SOMO being ready to load shipments," the letter said.

“Based on the situation, the ministry ordered a full shutdown of production at affected concession areas, with no compensation arising from the measure under contract terms," the letter noted.

The ministry said the scale-back would be reviewed periodically depending on regional developments, and invited international companies to urgent talks to agree on essential operations, costs, and staffing under force majeure conditions.

Basra output slashed from 3.3M to 900,000 BPD

Iraq's Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said crude production at Basra Oil Company has been cut to 900,000 barrels per day from 3.3 million barrels per day after exports from the country's southern ports were halted.

"The produced quantities are being directed to operate domestic refineries," the ministry said.

The drop in production and exports is set to strain Iraq's already fragile finances, as the state relies on crude sales for nearly all public spending and more than 90% of its income.

Ceyhan route resumed, oil prices surge

On Wednesday, Iraq's North Oil Company announced the resumption of oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan after shipments had been suspended since 2023,as Baghdad seeks alternative export routes amid mounting risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/iraq-declares-force-majeure-on-foreign-oilfields-3216621?s=

>>24409179

2/2

Oil prices rose amid escalating regional tensions. Brent crude climbed approximately 4% to $112.4 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate reached $98.35, up 2.8%. International oil prices settled at their highest level in nearly four years on Friday.

Around 20 million barrels of oil per day normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz,with the disruption pushing up shipping and insurance costs and fueling concerns over global energy markets.

Reports indicatedhundreds of vessels are stranded on both sides of the straitdue to growing security concerns.

Regional tensions have escalated since the U.S. and Israel launched a joint offensive on Iran on Feb. 28, killing around 1,300 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting U.S. military assets.

force majeure

Force majeure is a contractual clause freeing parties from liability when extraordinary, unforeseeable events beyond their control—such as natural disasters, wars, or pandemics—prevent performance of obligations. It acts as a "superior force" provision allowing contract suspension or termination.

Application in Contracts

Force majeure clauses often list specific triggering events and must be clearly defined in the contract to be valid. They allow parties to temporarily suspend performance, receive extensions, or terminate the contract entirely without penalty. For instance, shipping disruptions, as seen in Al Jazeera's report, can justify a force majeure claim,

Key Elements

For a force majeure clause to be invoked, the event must generally be:

External: Outside the party's control.

Unforeseeable: Not anticipated at the time of contract signing.

Irresistible: Its consequences could not be avoided or overcome.

Examples of Force Majeure Events

Natural Disasters ("Acts of God"): Floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and wildfires.

Human Actions: War, terrorism, riots, and strikes.

Governmental Disruptions: Pandemics, lockdowns, and quarantine restrictions.

Synonyms and Related Terms

Act of God: Refers specifically to natural occurrences.

Frustration of Purpose: A legal doctrine where the value of the contract is destroyed by a supervening event.

Exceptional Event: Often used in engineering contracts (e.g., FIDIC).

Vis Major: Latin term for superior force.

https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/iraq-declares-force-majeure-on-foreign-oilfields-3216621?s=3

>>24407888 After striking Iran, US eases sanctions on Iranian oil to curb pricesPN

I think Trump perhaps did this as a sign that he can be rational and diplomatic showing Iran signs, Trump and his admin will work out a peace deal. This war will not go on forever. Maybe it’s a sign to get back to negotiations.

I still believe Jared planned with Bibi to get America involved. I wonder if Witkoff has told Trump what he’s knows. Witkoff would not work with Bibi, he is very loyal to Trump. And Witkoff worked out the Gaza plan with Trump and Witkoff stopped Bibi’s plan to kill all of them.