The PREDICT Act (Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act), introduced in March 2026 by Reps. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-NE), proposes a bipartisan ban on federal officials, including members of Congress, the President, Vice President, and senior staff, from trading political event contracts.
Representative Adrian Smith | (.gov)
Representative Adrian Smith | (.gov)
+1
Key Aspects of the PREDICT Act:
Scope: Covers members of Congress, the President, Vice President, senior congressional staff, political appointees, and their spouses and dependent children.
Prohibition: Bans trading on prediction markets tied to election outcomes, policy decisions, and government actions.
Penalties: Violators face a fine of 10% of the transaction value and must forfeit all profits to the U.S. Treasury.
Goal: To prevent the misuse of nonpublic information for personal financial gain and to increase public trust in government.
+5
The legislation arises in response to concerns over officials potentially profiting from "insider" knowledge regarding policy decisions, legislation, or geopolitical developments on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi. It is one of several proposals currently in Congress aiming to regulate prediction market participation by officials.