Nolte: Trump’s Redistricting Moves Give GOP a Shot at Holding the House
John Nolte8 Jun 2026
People laughed at President Trump when he began to push Republican-dominated states to do what Democrat-run states had already done decades ago:redistrict their state’s congressional seats to their partisan advantage. The usual-usuals among the Republican Party’s oh-so-smartestassured us this would backfire. But Trump understood that Democrats had long ago redistricted to within an inch of their lives and that Republicans hadn’t.The advantage in that war could only go to the GOP.
You see, Illinois has 17 total congressional seats,and 14 are held by Democratswhenonly 54 percent of Illinoisans voted Democratin the most recent statewide elections.
Maryland has eight congressional seats andseven go to Democrats, when Democrats only make upabout 60 percent of the voting population.
New York has 26 congressional seats.Democrats hold 21 of those seats, even though the state is only about55 percent Democrat.
And on and on it goes like that inBlue States, especially in the Northeast.
So Trump decided to act like a Democrat, and Democrats were so spooked that Virginia’s new Democrat governor, AbigailSpanberger, broke a major campaign promise not to redistrict. She tried. The state’s Democrats tried.They tried so hard that they broke the law. Thankfully, the State’s Supreme Court put a stop to it.
Trump had his own setback in Indiana, wheresquishy Republican state senators refused to redistrict. As always,Trump got the last word. Most of those state senatorslost their primaries to Trump-backed candidateswho will undoubtedly redistrict in time for the next round of U.S. House races in 2028.
However you look at it,Trump won the redistricting war by picking up 16 seats to the Democrats’ pick up of just six— a net GOP gain of ten. And for that reason, and that reason alone,as of today, holding the House is not only possible, butbased on the latest Cook Political Report,Republicans have a real shot:
The magic number is 218, which meansRepublicans need only to win six of the 18 races listed as toss-ups.
Democrats will need to win 12of those 18 races.
Had Trump listened to all the “smart people,” Republicans would have zero chance to hold on.Fortune favors the bold, as they say.
Now, to be honest, I’d still rather be the Democrats in this scenario. Midterms are midterms, and midterms do not like incumbents, and they especially do not like incumbents when gas prices are around $4.00.
But even if the GOP losesthe House in 2026,more red states will redistrict next year(including Indiana) and that will only benefit the GOP come the 2028 elections. Then, before thenext election cycle, the U.S. Census will dictate which states gain or lose House seats(and electoral votes) in 2030. That will also benefit the GOP, especially if illegal aliens are not counted as they were in 2020.Hopefully, President JD Vance will ensure the 2030 census is not rigged.
There is just no question, though, that withNormal People fleeing all these Democrat-run states, Democrats will be theultimate losers in the next census.
Also worth watching ishow conservatives are rising around the world: in England, across Europe, and most recently in Peru.Could this translate to a stronger turnout for Republicans in 2026 — for the sane party?Something is happening. Something good. There’s no question about that.
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/06/08/nolte-trumps-redistricting-moves-give-gop-a-shot-at-holding-the-house/