>>4327556 (pb)
This Anon did this linear trend analysis. I simply went to Archives and grabbed the first post of every archive cohort (the 1st, 11th, and 21st of each month). I plotted first post number, date (I ignored time), and bread number. To fill in the post October gaps, I just grabbed two breads at random from the catalog. I was looking for gross trends, not granularity. Feel free to do the same. I didn't drill down to a bread-by-bread analysis because the gross linear trend was troubling (for the reasons you apprehend). Maybe CM or BO can share some metadata with us?