Just an anon here. No affiliation with Q, except been an anon since Oct 2017.
I have gotten a reply to my post from Q.
So, your theory may be valid for some, but not all, replies.
It was during the last Q&A!
Are you talking about on qmap.pub or qanon.pub?
Sometimes the reply posts don't show up on qanon.pub b/c they were in a previous bread. The script that the anon uses to pull the posts apparently doesn't pull the reply post if it's in a different bread. Does that make sense? Qmap.pub does a better job pulling replies from past breads.