Anonymous ID: 5471f9 Feb. 9, 2019, 9:59 a.m. No.5092767   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun   >>3165 >>3229 >>3403

Ocean Shipping Rates Plunge: Just A Blip Or The End Of Globalization?

 

The Baltic Dry Index represents the cost of renting an ocean-going container ship to move goods from, say, Chinese factories to the Port of Los Angeles. The more stuff being made and sold, the higher the demand for such ships, and thus the higher the price to rent one. And vice versa.

 

This is definitely one of the vice versa times. After rising to robust levels in mid-2018 the Baltic Dry Index has since plunged by about two-thirds.

 

ZH: we are well aware of the seasonality within the global shipping markets but even adjusted for that, this is the worst collapse in shipping rates since 2012 (which prompted Bernanke to unleash Operation Twist and QE3)โ€ฆ]

Hereโ€™s a brief article on the subject from todayโ€™s Wall Street Journal:

 

Free-Falling Freight Rates Spell Trouble For Shipping

 

Dry bulk shipowners face a long period of uncertainty as spot prices collapse and China shipments shrink.

 

A slowing global economy, coupled with weak demand from China over the Lunar New Year and from Brazil after Vale SAโ€™s iron ore disaster, is dragging shipping rates to near record lows, and few in the industry expect things to improve any time soon.

 

Brokers in Singapore and London said capesize vessels, the largest ships that move bulk commodities like iron ore, coal and aluminum, were chartered in the spot market for as low as $8,200 a day on Thursday, a $500 decline from Wednesday. Break-even costs for carriers can be as high as $15,000 a day, and daily rates in the capesize market hovered above $20,000 last year.

 

โ€œEveryone is looking for a catalyst to push the market up, but itโ€™s not there,โ€ said a Singapore broker.

 

The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the cost of moving bulk commodities and is considered a leading indicator of global trade, is down more than 50% since the start of the year.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-09/ocean-shipping-rates-plunge-just-blip-or-end-globalization

Anonymous ID: 5471f9 Feb. 9, 2019, 10:54 a.m. No.5093231   ๐Ÿ—„๏ธ.is ๐Ÿ”—kun

>>5093165

you are correct. They tried very hard to suppress that after the '08 crash as it documented the demand destruction you already noted. Nothing a few trillion in credit creation can't solve!

Also the cruise lines over-built too. But as Chuck Prince said "as long as the music is playing we have to dance".