tybs
US Factory Orders Slumped In February As Stocks Soared
US factory orders have been flat to weak for six straight months now.
Factory orders fell 0.5% MoM in February and were revised lower to unchanged in January.
Decoupling from the US equity market's push for new record highs.(see bifurcation)
But then again, when did fun-durr-mentals matter?
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-08/us-factory-orders-slumped-february-stocks-soared
What is Bifurcation?
Bifurcation is the splitting of a larger whole or main body into two smaller and separate units. It has applications across several fields of study, but when used in financial terminology is usually describes either the breaking of a larger entity into smaller divisions, or disjointed market movements.
Bifurcation also refers to the analysis or evaluation of market conditions. A market can be said to be bifurcated when various areas of the market that often move in a correlated fashion move in different directions.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bifurcation.asp
last fall much worse. better quality-if that can be said.
OTC bullshit
How To Identify A Micro-Cap Scam
Your inbox is littered with them: newsletters alerting you to micro-cap stocks that are "Up 92% in one day!" or promise "1000% + gain on this one!" Some micro-cap scams are obvious, but others are not. Do you know how to identify a scam?
The siren call of wild returns from micro-cap stocks can be hard to resist. With approximately 15,000 publicly traded securities in the United States, most investors know there are many overlooked and misunderstood smaller companies worth owning. But investing in micro caps can be a minefield unless you know how to recognize real opportunity from fraud.
What Are Micro-Caps and Where Do They Trade?
The term "micro-cap" refers to companies with low or "micro" market capitalizations. These are companies typically ranging between $50 million - $300 million in market capitalization. Micro-cap companies primarily trade on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) or the pink sheets.
The OTCBB is an electronic quotation system that displays real-time quotes, last-sale prices and volume information for many OTC securities that are not listed on the Nasdaq or other major securities exchanges. Although the NASD oversees the OTCBB, the OTCBB is not part of the Nasdaq. Scam artists often claim that an OTCBB company is a Nasdaq company, but this is misleading; it suggests that a company is larger and more liquid than it probably is. The pink sheets are named for the color of paper on which they've historically been printed. Many stocks quoted on the pink sheets are "penny stocks." The pink sheets is not a stock exchange and it is unregulated.
What's Different About Micro-Caps?
We all know that good information is an investor's best defense when purchasing shares in any company, but accurate information on micro-cap stocks can be hard to come by. Many micro-cap companies don't file reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), so it's tough for investors to get all the facts. Lack of reliable information makes it easy for investors to be seduced by scam artists.
Another important difference between micro-caps and larger stocks is the lack of minimum listing standards. Companies that trade their stocks on major exchanges, like the NYSE and the Nasdaq, must maintain minimum amounts of net assets and minimum numbers of shareholders to retain their listings. Companies on the OTCBB or the pink sheets, however, do not have to meet any minimum standards.
Micro-Cap Risks
It should come as no surprise to learn that micro-cap investing is far riskier than investing in large caps. Liquidity is usually limited, meaning that you might not be able to sell a micro-cap stock quickly enough to minimize losses when things go wrong. Earnings are often negative, and sizeable deficits may have accumulated. These companies are like shooting stars; they can fizzle out just as fast as they can light up the sky.
If you're researching a micro-cap stock, check the EDGAR database first, because even the smallest companies may file financial statements with the SEC. Companies with less than $10 million in assets actually don't have to file, but they often do if they want to offer their securities to the public. Other micro-caps may offer publicly traded securities, but are exempt from filing with the SEC. These exceptions include "Reg A" offerings in which the company is raising less than $5 million in 12 months, or "Reg D" offerings, those raising less than $1 million in 12 months.
Phony Facts and Tools of the Trade
Micro-cap scammers rely on the lack of public, reliable information to spread phony facts. Which are their favorite tools of the trade?
Email: Junk mail and "spam" over the internet are favorite tools scam artists use to spread false information about micro-cap stocks. Never buy a stock based on an email from someone you don't know.
Internet Bulletin Boards: Many scam artists hide or change their identities in investor chat rooms or message boards, then use these forums to promote certain micro-cap companies. They often claim to have unique, inside information about a company or its products. Never buy a stock unless you've done your own research and verified the facts.
Paid Promoters: Some micro-cap companies pay promoters to recommend their stocks. These hired guns claim to provide independent, unbiased investment newsletters, research reports, and radio or television shows. Investors should check the credentials of anyone who declares his or her advice is objective and independent. Look for legitimate financial certifications that require holders to adhere to an ethical code (for example, a CFA, CFP, CIC and the like).
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/microcap_scam.asp
JPMorgan: The Business Cycle No Longer Exists As Central Bank Have Taken Over
The amount of mental acrobatics that Wall Street analysts have to perform to justify continued buying of stocks even as bonds scream deflation, the yield curve screams contraction, Europe and China are already one foot in a recession, and earnings are set for their first profit contraction in 3 years, is simply staggering.
One week ago, we reported that in keeping with its now traditional "good quant, bad quant" strategy (profiled most recently here), just hours later, JPMorgan's "other" quant, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou published a report in which he said that while he maintains a risk-on and pro-cyclical stance (the alternative is risking being dubbed "fake news" by Kolanovic), he warned that "investors should start building up hedges against the risk of a repeat of the past two weeks' yield curve inversion episode."
Picking up on what he said two weeks ago, the JPMorgan strategist noted that "yield curve inversion has been generally a bad omen for growth and recession risk, though with variable lags to risky asset prices historically." And while not news to those who read our latest recap of Panigirtzoglou recent report, at the macro level the "other" JPM quant warns that "despite the improvement in the Chinese and Asian PMIs in this week's releases the global growth picture is not out of the woods yet" adding that "these cyclical risks are still manifesting in our global manufacturing PMI, which has failed to rise in the latest release despite better Asian PMIs".
Then over the weekend, in order to dispel fears that stocks have levitated too high, one strategist came out with a "novel" interpretation, claiming that there is no reason to worry as, drumroll, equity investors have been worried about the wrong yield curve. That strategist: Mislav Matejka who works for JPMorgan, and is a co-worker of the far more skeptical Panigirtzoglou.
That's right, one bank, two diametrically opposing takes on what the yield curve means for investors.
"We are all used to using the word ‘cycle’; we’re all used to looking at historical charts and graphs and equations and relationships," Lakos-Bujas told Barron’s. "The reality is that maybe the word ‘cycle’ is no longer even relevant, given that we have so much unconventional central-bank involvement."
Why does the JPM chief equity strategist feel comfortable with making such a ludicrous statement? It has everything to do with the lack of inflation (because on Wall Street, as well as in the Federal Reserve HQ, there is no such thing as surging housing, healthcare, education and food prices and all the focus is on deflating, and edible, iPads).
“The fact that we’re not seeing really significant inflation pressure—it remains positive but tame—suggests that there’s no reason for central-bank policy to rush,” he said, pitching central planning with the passion and fervor of a Communist Party undersecretary speaking in front of Leonid Brezhnev in 1968 Moscow.
Of course, as Barron's noted, central banks have done more than just keep rates low: central banks have put their balance sheets to work like never before, with large-scale asset purchases injecting liquidity into economies around the world. The ECB has gone even further than the Fed, buying up both sovereign and corporate bonds. The Bank of Japan took it to yet another level, purchasing equities in addition to bonds; its balance sheet is now above 100% of Japan's GDP.
"This is not a normal cycle just left to itself to run".
The first cycle he identifies ran from 2009 to 2012, when the European debt crisis forced the ECB to be creative in its measures to support debt-burdened euro-zone economies. The next phase lasted until 2016, when some emerging markets slipped into recession and U.S. corporate profits declined for two quarters. It ended when the Fed paused interest-rate increases and other central banks turned more accommodative. Another mini-cycle ended in the fourth quarter of 2018, when the Fed pivoted to a dovish stance and China began fiscal stimulus.
That brings us to the start of 2019, when a fourth cycle might have begun. “We have these little mini-cycles that are continuously occurring, and they seem to coincide with central-bank policy,” Lakos-Bujas says.
Unlike his more bearish JPM colleague, Panagirtzoglou who has been skeptical for the better part of the past 4 months, Lakos-Bujas - just like Marko Kolanovic - sees the S&P 500 going to 3000 this year, as investors steadily become willing to take on more risk and overhangs like the U.S.-China trade dispute are resolved.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-08/jpmorgan-business-cycle-no-longer-exists-central-bank-have-taken-over
(really?-JPM and it's criminal activity is saying this now….)
still funny
"I'm sorry ma'am we are out of blueberry muffins".
fuck them it's still funny
keep demonstrating your lack of knowledge about rate spreads.