tyb
Morning Market report
Index's are doing the opening small pop and clearing the decks for the drop (from futures indications) to settle down towards slightly up to flat. NASDAQ is the best performer here as the earnings reports( :/ ) are fueling that rise as shorts rush to cover those too, double the buying pressure.
Remember shorting has an infinite loss potential as how high can it go right?. NASDAQ is quite a show as the "reports" are pretty comical- why would Goog have to buy that much stock right?
GDP numbers driving today(these were known as the futures were up slightly too). It's mostly credit but what is good is the personal spending and even though that is credit too, mostly, KEY POINT: it shows a growing confidence amongst "we the pepe's".
This does not change the banks untenable situation though, they are still fucked. As previouls warned several times: HAVE SOME CASH. You won't lose your money in the long term you just may not be able to access it for a period of time.
==DON'T GET CAUGHT OUT WITH THIS-better to put it back if you don't need it then go "oh fuck I wish I had some".
The bulk of the Fin. Media is spinning this as a failure(see the article from ZH on annual revisions in the headline portion-big issue imo) to achieve the 3% rate as set out by POTUS. It is true it did not hit that but it fails to account for the turn around from where we were at a year ago going into summer and fall-was not good.
The money shot for it is this:Investment was weak again in Q2, although personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was strong (increased at a 4.3% annual rate). The investment dropped because of the system's unwillingness to see the forest through the tree's.
Have to admit I would be a little skeptical of growth if I were not in here so I understand it but there has to be element of the system fighting to keep it's old ways here. Not all of it but not everyone on-board iykwim.
The other good thing is weak inflation, thhis is the fuel that the FRB is NOT getting and yet another reason they could "pause"-see a fight here for sure.
Treasury yields no likey this as they decided to play the swan dive (not huge drop but violent for sure). All those big boys who sold in the last few days are wishing they did not-HA HA!-values go up, yields drop.
You could see on the chart (Cap#3) that they were juiced upwards prior to the release so it had space to fall into-it stays above 2%. Do thhis with most financial vehicles. They have the control of that for sure.
Gold had a little pop on this too but still in the congestion area it has been in. Silver is closer to the high's it has recently seen and this is a ticking time bomb for the system. As already mentioned the longer it stays here the moar attention it gets.
Watch the mining stocks for a clue if a paper dump is coming on the COMEX-has always been a 'tell' but the recent drop last friday did not follow through. I expect this in silver and very surprised it has not habbened yet.
Earnings season is winding down(Goog announcing a $25b share buyback program….:/) and McDonald’s Corp beat quarterly sales expectations at established U.S. restaurants on Friday, as the world’s largest burger chain benefited from remodeled stores and new deals, including the 2 for $5 Mix and Match offer.
The company's stock, a component of the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial index rose 2% to $219.39 in early trading.
Fed still has ‘green light’ to ease after second-quarter GDP
The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates for the first time in 10 years next week despite better-than-expected second-quarter economic growth, analysts said Friday, after the first official reading of U.S. GDP.
The FOMC, the central bank’s interest-rate committee, will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday. They will announce their decision at 2 pm on July 31 followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-still-has-green-light-to-ease-after-second-quarter-gdp-2019-07-26
Part 1/2
Part 2/2
Tech stocks just got hit on a POTUS tweet
Apple, Google Tumble After Trump Tweets
As stocks pushed back towards yet more record highs, President Trump just took the shine off the day by tweeting against two mega-tech companies…
First it was Google, following up on Peter Thiel's recent accusations:
There may or may not be National Security concerns with regard to Google and their relationship with China. If there is a problem, we will find out about it. I sincerely hope there is not!!! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2019
And Alphabet is giving back its exuberant gains.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/apple-google-tumble-after-trump-tweets
POTUS' "Greatest Economy Ever" Revised Away By Annual Data 'Corrections'
Not wanting to entirely rain on America's parade, after a stronger than expected set of data on growth this morning, President Trump's much-heralded 3.0% GDP growth in 2018 - "greatest economy ever" - has been slashed by annual revisions.
Updated government figures show that gross domestic product expanded 2.5% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter basis last year.
That compares with a previous estimate of 3% and an upwardly revised 2.8% in 2017, the first year of Trump’s presidency.
Slower growth of business investment and exports, along with a greater output in the fourth quarter of 2017 that made the comparison less favorable.
Growth in the final three months of 2018 is now pegged at an annualized 1.1%, half the previous estimate and the slowest pace in three years, as consumer spending downshifted significantly.
Full-year revisions for other recent years were fairly minor and didn’t shift the economy’s overall trajectory. Year-over-year growth in 2017 was revised slightly higher, to 2.4% from an earlier estimate of 2.2%, largely due to higher government spending, higher consumer spending on goods and the availability of new government finance data.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/trumps-greatest-economy-ever-revised-away-annual-data-corrections
This has ALWAYS been a HUGE problem-annual 'revisions' and are being used to mask the reality of what is going on-needs a re-work in a bigly way- easy to do with modern computing power but the will not in the places it needs to be
See Cap on this crumb for how it "works" out
this according to the CME Fed Watch data but the Boston FRB Pres. will not be voting yes for sure-STEIN-See Cap#4
excerpt from ZH article on GDP report (it has already been released but this is important to understand the credit aspect of it) from FED as it speks to the truth. Remember the yen was used as fuel for our growth-see Yen Carry-trade.
It is often, and correctly, stated as fact that the Fed is central banker to the world. And, under current political circumstances, that’s more true than ever. Its fellow institutions are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to give them the ability,
cover and permission to move ahead with their own plans. And that will be forthcoming. Obviously, the ECB statement and subsequent press conference has gotten the lion’s share of attention this week. But, in retrospect, the remarks given the day before by a senior economic adviser to Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe read as if he was reflecting the debates of central bankers around the world. And it may explain some of the differences of opinion within the ECB Governing Council that became evident over the course of yesterday’s meeting aftermath.
“If the Fed eases, then the Bank of Japan will need to think about further easing to prevent the yen strengthening.”
Take out the word “yen” and it would be anyone’s guess which country was being referred to. Don’t think of this as currency war talk. It isn’t aggression, or something nefarious. Its common sense and an issue of economic survival.
There isn’t a single proposal that the ECB has tasked their committees to study prior to the September meeting that would do more to help revitalize the European economy, specifically the manufacturing sector, than getting the euro lowpolicy errors. Even ones spawned by desperation. And doubling down is a sign of outright panic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-26/worlds-central-bankers-hold-breath-ahead-us-gdp-reporter.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC?p=^IXIC
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
tyb, had to make some changes in between first and second drop.
>Maybe the Deutsche Bank will have an effect if a bailout is required.
That they don't see it already is pretty sad. It's been a problem for many years and should have been "done in" years ago. But they protected it by sacrificing other banks.
They can't bail it out like they did in 2008 as it's just too big.
Denial ain't just a river in egypt fren
love the shirt too.
Garmin Exec Chair sold $31.05m in shares-July 24-25
https://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1134100&tc=2&b=2
the annual "revisions" they do make it look like it does. If they did not do that it would have been closer to the estimates.
they should