tyb
US Market Report
FRB does the right thing for now edition'
The "academics" are having a sperg-a-thon because they are still rooted in relaity's of the past namely a Boom/Bust cycle that was controlled by the "independant" FRB.
The FRB being independent as a reason to say you are doing this incorrectly is total BULLSHIT. It serves it's owners..who is that? The banking system.
Powell spoke out of both sides of his mouth today too. Not committing to a rate cutting cycle, and even going as far as saying "we could raise them too".
That is exactly why the markets dropped as they did nothing prior to the presser he gave. The purple tie too…think that means "we own this bitch now"-as it shows that you are no longer going to use that symbolism to taunt or scare us off. Could be wrong.
The press conference was fine until those words already mentioned. This presser marks the 10th time out of 12 that S&P has dropped during Powell presser. Not a great record.
What did this do to treasury yields you may ask? See cap#3. Maverick and Goose were brifly "un-inverted" but remain decidedly so upon close.
Killing the hand that feeds it. It also spiked the dollar. This is not needed as it will make the imports , that are shrinking, moar expensive. Since we close out the month here are some factual statements from the daily ZH article.
China ends the month mixed with tech-heavy ChiNext performing well but the broader Shanghai Comp in the red.
European stocks were also mixed with UK's FTSE best (as the pound collapsed) and Spain and Germany weakest.
US stocks were all positive on the month with Small Caps worst and Nasdaq best (even with today's ugliness).
Bonds and the dollar(especially after muh FOMC presser) held gains as stocks and gold sank post-Powell.
The dollar surged 2.5% in July - its biggest monthly gain since Nov 2016 (Trump election)
Cable crashed over 4% in July - its worst month since Oct 2016 - with the lowest monthly close since 1985-BTW this is needed as FIAT currency's need t get closer in value before the reset-just an opinion.
Commodities were broadly lower today as the dollar spiked but Silver massively outperformed for the month-it certainly did: DON"T MISS THE BOAT HERE AS MENTIONED FOR MANY MONTHS!!
Silver surged back above $16 intra-month - its best month since Dec 2018.
Credit spreads spiked notably…IG spreads ended the month wider! Ok this is actually something that needs to be dealt with.
The system is feeling threatened by seeing it's ability to create infinite credit and spew it into the world un-abatted severly being restricted by perceptive policy statements.
They do no thave as much clarity as they need and are begging for it. Powell did an ok job keeping everyone on toes today becuase if he had said we have moar cuts coming
then the credit creators would have had an orgasm about what they think they could "create" and push out into the world. They also make moneywriting insurance in case these products fail.
Part 1/2
Part 2/2
Some Headlines
Qualcomm forecasts current-quarter revenue below estimates
Qualcomm Inc missed quarterly revenue estimates and forecast current-quarter revenue below analysts’ expectations on Wednesday, sending its shares down 5% in extended trading.
The below-expectations forecast follows upbeat results from chipmakers Texas Instruments and Intel Corp
that had eased investor concerns around demand due to a protracted Sino-U.S. trade war and the fallout from restrictions on sales to China’s Huawei Technologies.
Qualcomm also lowered its outlook for the number of smart devices with modem chips that would be sold in 2019 to 1.7 billion to 1.8 billion, down from a previous estimate of 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion.
The company collects license fees from smartphone makers for using its patents in their devices and more device sales often results in higher revenue and profits.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qualcomm-results/qualcomm-forecasts-current-quarter-revenue-below-estimates-idUSKCN1UQ2LZ
U.S. wage inflation moderate, Midwest manufacturing slumps
U.S. labor costs rose at their slowest pace in 1-1/2 years in the second quarter, the latest sign of benign inflation that enabled the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2008.
Other data on Wednesday suggested a further slowdown in economic growth at the start of the third quarter. Manufacturing activity in the Midwest contracted for a second straight month in July, declining to its lowest level in more than 3-1/2 years.
While private payrolls rebounded this month, the pace of growth remained moderate. The Fed cited “the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures”
for its largely expected decision to lower its benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points for the first time since the Great Recession.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-costs/u-s-wage-inflation-moderate-midwest-manufacturing-slumps-idUSKCN1UQ1NL
and finally in this is good news from the housing sector re: foreclosures, for a change
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Unchanged in June
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged at 0.70% in June, from 0.70% in May. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.97% in June 2018. See cap#2 here
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
This equals last month as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since July 2007.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/07/fannie-mae-mortgage-serious-delinquency.html
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://www.dailyfx.com/crude-oil
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx
Chipotle Exec. Chair sold $22.99m in shares-July 29
Logo Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
Chipotle Mexican Grill specializes in operating casual fast food businesses.
At the end of 2017, the group had 2,408 restaurants throughout the world.
Number of employees : 73 000 people.
https://www.marketscreener.com/CHIPOTLE-MEXICAN-GRILL-IN-12109/company/
https://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?oc=1350873&tc=2&b=2
I did not call that. Just was concerned that if they did not follow through there would be a public fight. You never know what they will do.
or the wind blowing. Think it's good though. Some will not like as witness to the tantrums they are throwing. Tell them what you are going to do and they will load up that side of the boat. Had enough of that over the years.
chek't digits
I agree with that. Pretty choppy in bond land too.
Most of these people have never seen capitulation so wouldn't know it if it grabbed 'em by the balls and shook. Think we may see that in bonds eventually. Munchkins pushing out much over next two months.
Glad to have some back and forth on this now.
Really enjoy it. Was not long ago when this was all 'toxic' courtesy of ktwats and the other douchebag.
Appreciate any and all feedback. I am not the answer man here as many smart anons including yourself. Very habby with today as no drop-down fight.
That stuff with Joe or whoever habbens when it habbens…I'm patient
for you PATRIOT
o7
you are spot on fren. Couldn't have said it any better.
The skew of the entire world's markets have been hard to watch and I do not envy the ones who have to make it now-it was easier up until about 2013 but not by much. I wait, patiently for a return to solid fundy's and real tech patterns that actually follow-through-miss that chase. That is how I learned. I never bought many bonds for the same reason I stayed out of currency's, was also young enough where I did not need the guaranteed return the bonds produced. My wife may have a different opinion about the safety aspect of that but we did ok. Not a rich man in dollar terms but I don't measure that by a bank account. In the non-financial way I am loaded cause I am habby. Money can't buy that.