CDC 50% Infection Rate Worst Case Prediction Promotes Fear
Article states CDC and media use a worst case prediction of 50% of the population infected and 10% needing hospitalization.
Also states 80% of people who do catch the virus will likely experience mild flu like conditions
The current CDC statistics are provided below.
Central Pennsylvania hospitals prep for coronavirus as big question looms: Will they have enough beds?
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/03/central-pennsylvania-hospitals-prep-for-coronavirus-as-big-question-looms-will-they-have-enough-beds.html
article excerpt:
A potential shortage of hospital beds has suddenly become a subject of great worry around the country. It comes as emerging data and estimates regarding the toll of coronavirus suggest a huge mismatch between the supply of hospital beds and the number of people who might need them.
About 80 percent of the people who get coronavirus have only mild symptoms. Some may not even realize they’re sick.
However, Dr. Raghavendra Tirupathi, a central Pennsylvania infectious disease specialist, expects ten percent of people who get coronavirus will become severely ill and need hospital care. Many, if not most, will need breathing ventilators and intensive care, according to Tirupathi, the medical director of Keystone Infectious Diseases and chair of infection prevention at WellSpan Chambersburg Hospital.
As of Tuesday, Tirupathi was aware of no model that has attempted to forecast a worst-case scenario specific to Pennsylvania.
However, Dr. Tom Frieden, the former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, devised a national worst-case scenario in which half the population would get the coronavirus.
CDC Statistics March 18 2020
Total Cases: 7038
Total Deaths: 97
(combined presumptive and positive test results)
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
U.S. Virologic Surveillance - Clinical Laboratories
Influenza (A&B)
Week 10 (ending March 7 2020) 9413 positive
Cumulative since September 29 2019 222,552 positive
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
influenza mortality is about 400 per week with 5-8 pediatric deaths