Australian expert says lock down to last well past Christmas and social distancing for another 18 months to two years.
Coronavirus: New modelling reveals Australians could be locked in isolation for months
We might need to get used to being stuck inside as new modelling shows a drink at the pub may be further away than we initially thought.
Australians can expect to be cooped up in isolation until summer, based on yet-to-be-released modelling that reveals the number of hospitalised coronavirus cases won’t peak until the end of October.
The modelling, presented to intensive care consultants and seen by news.com.au, shows strict social distancing measures will halve the number of infections in NSW compared to what would have happened without the shutdown.
If not for the restrictions, the rate of transmission would have been much more aggressive and hospitalisations would have peaked in July.
The modelling shows that, with less interference from the government, there would have been a peak of 450 hospitalised cases for every 100,000 people in NSW, with the virus spreading in the community at a rate of 2.4.
With social distancing, the data shows the peak will now be late October, with 180 hospitalised cases per 100,000 people at a reproduction rate of 1.6.
The modelling shows social distancing measures are effective at flattening the curve and many fewer people will get infected, but also suggests Australia will be fighting the virus for a longer period than many expected.
Considering NSW has the highest case numbers, medical experts believe this projection will likely translate into the extension of nationwide restrictions until summer.
It has also created a real concern within the medical industry that intensive care units will be overwhelmed by the volume of seriously ill coronavirus patients.
Australian National University infectious diseases physician and microbiologist Professor Peter Collignon said he was sceptical of the validity of models that forecast infection rates.
But he told news.com.au the country would need to remain locked down, to some degree, well past Christmas despite the growth rate of new infections halving in recent weeks.
"You know what the bad news is? We're going to have to do a lot of this social distancing for another 18 months to two years,” he said.
"This virus ain't going to go anywhere soon. We'll have a reprieve next spring because there's less transmission of viruses in summer.
“But until we get a vaccine that is safe and works or until we find the evidence is wrong or unless something radical changes with the data, there's no way, in my view, we're going to get rid of all the virus from Australia.”
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/coronavirus-new-modelling-reveals-australians-could-be-locked-in-isolation-for-months/news-story/221c5a7b21cc8dadb997ac5b6a51ba05
Assholes are trying to destroy all hope