New CDC Figures Show Fauci’s Dishonest COVID-19 Projections Were Garbage

Posted at 6:00 pm on May 23, 2020 by Michael Thau

This madness has to end now.

Every single lockdown order inflicted on the American people these past few months needs to be rescinded immediately.

Once that’s done, Fauci has to be investigated to find out why on earth he pushed these catastrophic measures on us using projections he knew to be false. He also needs to be indicted for peddling his lies before Congress and held criminally accountable for all the death and devastation he’s caused as well.

In case you hadn’t heard, Matt Margolis over at PJ Media is reporting that the CDC now estimates the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 to be only .4 percent. As Margolis points out, that’s much lower than the numbers used to frighten us into these lockdowns. But there are a few factors he doesn’t mention that demonstratively show we were unspeakably deceived rather than merely the victims of some disastrous but ultimately honest mistake.

The CFR is the death rate restricted to just those cases in which someone with symptoms had a test confirming they were infected. Since it factors in neither asymptomatic cases nor unconfirmed symptomatic ones, it’s going to substantially overstate the infection fatality rate (IFR), which is the rate among the totality of all those infected.

And, of course, it’s the IFR which represents the odds a random person who contracts the virus has of dying. The CFR, on the other hand, isn’t really of any interest at all if you’re just a normal person trying to understand how dire a threat we’re facing. It gets massively skewed by the over-representation of serious cases among those who get tested and because it doesn’t factor in asymptomatic infections at all.

Moreover, the skewing isn’t even uniform. Its extent depends upon the availability of tests and the polices in place concerning when they’re to be given. Both of which vary between different localities and even in the same one at different times.

The CDC is also now estimating that only 65% of those who contract the COVID-19 virus actually wind up with any symptoms. That means the IFR will be at most 65% of the CFR since the latter is only counting symptomatic cases. That puts COVID-19’s fatality rate at below .26%. But, given that testing has been relatively rare even among those who show symptoms, it’s bound to be substantially lower.

Margolis says that IFR will actually be .26%. But that calculation depends on assuming that everyone who caught the virus and developed symptoms was tested, which is clearly not even close to true. The .26% figure he cites is, at best, an upper limit on the IFR, which is actually bound to be at least several times lower.

As Margolis points out, initially, we were told that COVID-19’s CFR was 3.4%, which is 8.5 times higher than the current CDC estimate of .4%. But he doesn’t note that those pushing this – as it’s turned out –vastly inflated number didn’t distinguish between the CFR and IFR. Instead the 3.4% figure was sold to us as COVID-19’s unqualified “death” or “mortality” rate.

We were subjected to hundreds of stories like this one from CNBC headlined, ‘WHO Says Coronavirus Death Rate Is 3.4% Globally, Higher Than Previously Thought.’ CNBC also cites the 3.4% figure as COVID-19’s unqualified “mortality rate” in their lead sentence. Since anyone reading these claims would immediately assume they represented his or her chances of dying upon contracting the virus, the percentages we were bombarded with would have been despicably deceptive even if COVID-19’s CFR really had been 3.4%.

Moreover, throughout March, Fauci himself issued dire warnings that COVID-19 was “at least 10 times more lethal than the flu.” He swore to it while testifying to Congress on March 11, generating a blizzard of scare-mongering headlines hammering the frightening numerical comparison into our heads. And he repeated the bogus numbers in a March 27 appearance on Comedy Central.

The flu’s IFR is estimated to be around .1%. As we noted above, the CDC is now saying that even COVID-19’s CFR is only .4%. And they’re now citing a percentage for asymptomatic cases which implies that the virus’s actual lethality is several times lower than .26%. Moreover, as Margolis pointed out in a decidedly useful earlier column, at least 3 major research studies have concluded that COVID-19 has around the same IFR as the flu.

more:

https://www.redstate.com/michael_thau/2020/05/23/842684/