Coup d'état
A 2003 review of the academic literature found that the following factors were associated with coups:
officers' personal grievances
military organizational grievances
military popularity
military attitudinal cohesiveness
economic decline
domestic political crisis
contagion from other regional coups
external threat
participation in war
collusion with a foreign military power
military's national security doctrine
officers' political culture
noninclusive institutions
colonial legacy
economic development
undiversified exports
officers' class composition
military size
strength of civil society
regime legitimacy and past coups.[22]
The literature review in a 2016 study includes mentions of ethnic factionalism, supportive foreign governments, leader inexperience, slow growth, commodity price shocks, and poverty.[23]
The cumulative number of coups is a strong predictor of future coups.[22][24][25] Hybrid regimes are more vulnerable to coups than are very authoritarian states or democratic states.[26] A 2015 study finds that terrorism is strongly associated with re-shuffling coups.[27] A 2016 study finds that there is an ethnic component to coups: "When leaders attempt to build ethnic armies, or dismantle those created by their predecessors, they provoke violent resistance from military officers."[28] Another 2016 study shows that protests increase the risk of coups, presumably because they ease coordination obstacles among coup plotters and make international actors less likely to punish coup leaders.[29] A third 2016 study finds that coups become more likely in the wake of elections in autocracies when the results reveal electoral weakness for the incumbent autocrat.[30] A fourth 2016 study finds that inequality between social classes increases the likelihood of coups.[31] A fifth 2016 study rejects the notion that participation in war makes coups more likely; on the contrary, coup risk declines in the presence of enduring interstate conflict.[32] A sixth 2016 study finds no evidence that coups are contagious; one coup in a region does not make other coups in the region likely to follow.[33] One study found that coups are more likely to occur in states with small populations, as there are smaller coordination problems for coup-plotters.[34]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27état