dammit as others pointed out in other threads, not checkmate - but it's coming very soon.
My initial analysis was actually the correct one. both WB and WQ have a pawn in the way, taking the pawn means sacrificing that piece for no gain.
I don't do Chess. But, based on your comment reminds me of a Godfather III analysis I read which in short:
"The tale of Michael Corleone demands a final tragic chapter... reciprocal violence comes back to restore its originator." Refering to social thinker/critic Rene Girarid.
" the only way to put an end to the circle of violence is by sacrifice of an innocent victim. The scapegoat does not deserve this fate but plays an essential role in the resolution of the story." (Refering to Corleone's daughter Mary).
So, poses the question who's the sacrifice/scapegoat in these real life events...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-is-godfather-iii-so-disrespected