tyb
Notes being taken for incoming baker
and they are in the process of shedding all the non performing loans (that ratio jumping too) off to the regional banks
have been a few defaults but that will only pick up going forward
Plus the REIT issue front and center
>>18674585 pb A $1.5 Trillion Wall of Debt is Looming for US Commercial Properties
#22914
Notables, not endorsements
>>18677329 Office of real Flotus: "News organizations have made assumptions about the former First Lady's stance on subjects that are personal, professional, and political over the past few weeks. In these articles, unnamed sources are cited to bolster the author's claims" soc media
>>18677380 Pentagon officials are working to identify the source of leaked highly classified documents, which largely focus on the war in Ukraine. @CBS_Herridge
>>18677390, >>18677415 St. Olaf student faces felony charges after packaging for gun magazines found outside dorms April 10
>>18677397, >>18677417 icymi: Son of billionaire George Soros has visited the White House 14 times in just over a year as logs show 37-year-old Democrat fundraiser repeatedly meets with top officials since Biden took office April 8
>>18677430 Jeffrey Epstein related case, Deutsche Bank last night past 11 pm filed its defenses, including arguing that the NY Adult Survivors Act "violated the Due Process Clause."
>>18677442 Yellen: US banking system remains sound, with strong capital and liquidity positions, and global financial system is resilient
>>18677446 Twitter Inc “No Longer Exists” According To New Court Filing, It Is Now “X” April 10
>>18677456, >>18677487 US Banks lost money for mortgages they financed last year, for the first time in history, BI reports.
morning to you too
aye good bake to you
Potato-still not AF1-in 82-8000 747 (VC-25) departed JBA for Belfast Int'l (had a C-17 go to Dublin and Belfast yesterday dropping of equipment
They have had 92-9000 747 out on plenty of cert flights so mebby they finally put it back into service with this trip as it has not been used by Biden Admin and went to San Antonio in Nov. of 2020 and did reappear until last year
Huge security operation for Joe Biden visit to Belfast
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-65234789
Polish AF PLF102 737 on ground at Dulles from Warsaw departure earlie today
SAM538 G5 departed JBA (doesn't show as G5 but hex id decodes as one-this is a plain white AC not blue over white)
from Yesterday-that Aussie AF A330 MRTT AC went to Savannah Int'l from a stop at JBA and an RAF Mildenhall depart
CANE11 E-4B Nightwatch went to JBA-from Offutt (STRATCOM) AFB depart yesterday anoon and should leave as part of Potato's trip-should go to RAF Mildenhall-this is S.O.P
>mebby they finally put it back into service with this trip
The answer to that is nope as 09-0015 C-32A has departed JBA as the escort for 82-8000
kek thanks Larry for the confirmation
It still shows (on CME FEDwatch) they will do one moar but doubt that
They still need to prop markets for the coming bank earnings-which will show massive deposit inflows for the big 6 banks and then the farcical FRB stress tests comes out soon after
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Dodd-Frank Act Stress Tests 2023
https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/dfa-stress-tests-2023.htm
2023 Stress Test Scenarios
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/bcreg20230209a1.pdf
>>18493300 pb Silicon Valley Bank, FDIC, Federal Reserve Stress Tests and Hold to Maturity for TBTFs and others
Swiss parliament approves 109 billion franc rescue package for Credit Suisse
The upper house of Switzerland's parliament on Tuesday retrospectively approved 109 billion Swiss francs of financial guarantees, which were included in a rescue package for Credit Suisse (CSGN.S). Following a heated debate at an extraordinary session called to discuss Credit Suisse, 29 members of Switzerland's Council of States approved the measure.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-parliament-approves-109-billion-franc-rescue-package-credit-suisse-2023-04-11/
please add
>>18677578, >>18677587 PF: Potato bails to Belfast on 82-8000
He'll be 'Irish' for the next 4 days
GRIM99 E-4B Nightwatch departed JBA after arriving yesterday as CANE11 from Offutt AFB
>should leave as part of Potato's trip-should go to RAF Mildenhall-this is S.O.P
and it's not the SEC as usual
moar proof of the Fed Stress tests farce and back up for >>18493300 pb
The Fed Models the Weather Although It Can't Even Stress Test Treasuries
On January 10, Fed Chairman said the Fed ‘will not be a climate policymaker’.
Under guise that it's just a stress test model and not a policy setting model, the Fed announced details on its Pilot Climate Scenario Risk Analysis Program on January 17. As described in the instruction document released today, the six largest U.S. banks will analyze the impact of scenarios for both physical and transition risks related to climate change on specific assets in their portfolios. To support the exercise's goals of deepening understanding of climate risk-management practices and building capacity to identify, measure, monitor, and manage climate-related financial risks, the Board will gather qualitative and quantitative information over the course of the pilot, including details on governance and risk management practices, measurement methodologies, risk metrics, data challenges, and lessons learned. "The Fed has narrow, but important, responsibilities regarding climate-related financial risks – to ensure that banks understand and manage their material risks, including the financial risks from climate change," Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr said. "The exercise we are launching today will advance the ability of supervisors and banks to analyze and manage emerging climate-related financial risks."
Climate Results Are In
Please consider the WSJ report The Fed’s Climate Studies Are Full of Hot Air by David Barker.
This year the Fed is forcing big banks to produce complex reports on their climate vulnerability in a “pilot project” that is sure to expand and might lead to lending restrictions. A query of the Fed’s listing of recent publications returns hundreds of research papers, press releases and policy statements related to climate change. With all this effort, one might hope the Fed would produce high-quality research on climate change. But I took a close look at two Fed studies on the subject and found shockingly poor analysis. These studies on the effect of temperature on U.S. and world economic growth are cited without a hint of skepticism and widely lavished with media attention.
Recently I published a critique of a study from the Federal Reserve Board claiming that a year of above-normal temperatures in countries around the world makes economic contraction more likely. The original study used sophisticated statistical techniques but failed to report that its primary finding was statistically insignificant. My request to the study’s author for computer code to reproduce the paper’s results went unanswered. I managed to write the code from scratch and exactly replicate the results, allowing me to run additional tests that the author didn’t report. The author’s primary result—that temperature has a bigger effect in bad than in good economic times—turned out to be statistically insignificant. Additional analysis showed that there is no reliable effect of temperature on growth at all. There are two main reasons why the Fed study appeared at first to show a statistically significant effect of temperatures on economic growth. First, each country in the sample had equal weight in the analysis. China had the same weight as St. Vincent though China’s population is 13,000 times as large. Equal weighting means that some small countries with unusual histories of economic growth greatly influenced the results. The paper’s results disappeared when countries like Rwanda and Equatorial Guinea—which had economic catastrophes and bonanzas unrelated to climate change—were omitted. Omitting similar countries representing less than 1% of world gross domestic product was enough to eliminate the paper’s result. The only thing to learn from the Fed’s research is that climate propaganda is spreading fast, and when it comes to climate, academic economists are no more deserving of trust than are other supposed scientists and experts. The Fed’s time would be better spent on more urgent matters, like improving its botched regulation of the banking system.
The author, David Barker, has taught economics and finance at the University of Chicago and the University of Iowa and worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He has a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago. Hoot of the Day The Fed cannot even model US Treasuries. Its stress-free test would have failed to identify the imploded Silicon Valley Bank as a problem.
Yet, for political reasons, the Fed is now attempting to stress test the weather. To get the desired results, the Fed study gave St. Vincent, Rwanda, and Equatorial Guinea the same weight as China and the United States. I suggest the Fed should throw this nonsense in the garbage and stress test commercial real estate, interest rates, accelerated QT, and things that it has clearly neglected.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-models-weather-although-it-cant-even-stress-test-treasuries
>>18677572, >>18677668, >>18677930 BlackRock, has said that the Fed may not need to hike rates in May due to a "slower set of economic conditions-The Fed Models the Weather Although It Can't Even Stress Test Treasuries
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please add this
>>18677572, >>18677668, >>18677930 BlackRock, has said that the Fed may not need to hike rates in May due to a "slower set of economic conditions-The Fed Models the Weather Although It Can't Even Stress Test Treasuries
Thank you
they (BUD) announced a .75 cent dividend payable on May 3rd yesterday