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Anonymous ID: 163cb9 July 14, 2024, 5:11 p.m. No.21206094   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>6367 >>6480 >>6558 >>6595

Economic Schedule for Week of July 14, 2024-Sunday Market News

 

(Keep in mind that some bets were made last week on Saturdays “outcome” and those are know incorrect -and you certainly saw Bitcoin show the evidence of payoffs being made-so those bets will need to be taken off because (((they))) were not successful in taking out 45. Look for a little choppiness for a few days while those wrong way bets are unwound.)

The key reports this week are June Retail Sales and Housing Starts. For manufacturing, the June Industrial Production report and the July New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

On Tuesday June 16th the Atlanta Fed’s hilarious GDPNOW is updated in the late morning EST and was raised .5% from 1.5 to 2%-Latest estimate: 2.0 percent – July 10, 2024 in the woefully political “Jobs” #s. Total farce those were.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

The BoJ shot it load last Thursday and a smaller one one Friday read about that here >>21182905, >>21184749, >>21184825 pb and realize this is ALL they can doand it still won’t work. Even if they raise rates (highly doubtful) it will only be a small amount-10 to 20bp-and that ain’t shit compared to where they are here and other countries. The Yen carry trade will NOT be sacrificed at any cost-much to the chagrin of the ordinary Japanese citizen(s). They also won’t stop buying JGBs either….they can’t.

Yen’s Woes Seem Too Big for Even a BOJ Hike This Month to Solve

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-14/yen-s-woes-seem-too-big-for-even-a-boj-hike-this-month-to-solve

 

Extend and pretend is almost over…witness the ‘Morgue’s “earnings” on Friday >>21185527 pb

The Yuge share buybacks and ‘passing’ the fake ass stress tests are the only thing that keeps all of them from cratering. Well the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) also helps and that is ran out of Janet’s basement-yes they have trading desks at both the FRB and Treasury. They (FOMC) are already late and ALWAYS are the last to “know” but they claim innocence and that’s why we get the ‘Boom/Bust’ cycles as they are olann d that way…look for rally to continue until it’s closer to selection-thinking the standard early Sept timeframe but they need something to “cling” to. and I have a hard time seeing Janet ‘Rest Home’ Yellen managing ANY turmoil (ala Hank Paulson in 2007)….don’t see that at all.

 

  • Monday, July 15th -

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of -6.0, unchanged from -6.0.

12:30 PM: Discussion, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Conversation with David M. Rubenstein, Chairman of the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

 

  • Tuesday, July 16th -

8:30 AM: Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for no change in retail sales.(it is NOT adjusted for inflation so I see a miss here)

 

10:00 AM: The July NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 44, up from 43. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

 

  • Wednesday, July 17th -

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.(still DED and getting ded’d but a small drop in interest rates may give it a very small improvement)

8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for June. The consensus is for 1.310 million SAAR, up from 1.277 million SAAR in May.(same here but home builders do wut again? Build homes so they won’t stop just get slower)

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June-The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.6%.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.(all week the FedHeads will continue to offer opposing viewpoints so just understand that Mr. Bond (Market) is demanding a September rate cut of 25bp)

Here was SF FEDHead Daly with the latest round >>21179170 pb

Here is Sept CME FEDWATCH https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

  • Thursday, July 18th -

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 228 thousand initial claims, up from 222 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for July. The consensus is for a reading of 2.9, up from 1.0.

 

  • Friday, July 19th -

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for June 2024

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/schedule-for-week-of-july-14-2024.html

https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency

https://www.cnbc.com/index-futures/